Would The Freedom Caucus Force A Government Shutdown Right Before The Election?

They Would If They Could

There are two potentially-pending self-inflicted wounds House  Republican leaders are hoping avoid before November 5th and both are performative nonsense— a forced vote on impeaching Biden and a fight over extraneous poison pills attached to the continuing resolution (CR) that would allow the government to not shut down before the election. The extremists in their midst— think Freedom Caucus + fellow travelers on the far right fringe— believe shutting down the government should be a goal, not something to run away from.

The problem with their strategy is that not all Republicans in the House represent psycho-districts with huge MAGA-majorities and where there is no need to cobble together a mainstream-type coalition on Election Day that includes independents and centrists. Many of the extremists who want to shut down the government represent districts filled with fascist voters who have elected them because they are exactly the way they are. Let me give you some examples of the top troublemakers among the extremists:

• Matt Gaetz (FL-01)- R+19

• Marjorie Traitor Greene (GA-14)- R+22

• Tim Burchett (TN-02)- R+18

• Clay Higgins (LA-03)- R+21

• Chip Roy (TX-21)- R+13

• Gym Jordan (OH-04)- R+20

• Mary Miller (IL-15)- R+22

• Andy Biggs (AZ-05)- R+11

• Ronny Jackson (TX-13)- R+26

• Byron Donalds (FL-19)- R+13

• Josh Brecheen (OK-02)- R+29

• Eric Burlison (MO-07)- R+24

• Andy Ogles (TN-05)- R+9

• Andy Clyde (GA-09)- R+22

• Matt Rosendale (MT-02)- R+16

• Troy Nehls (TX-22)- R+11

• Mike Collins (GA-10)- R+15

None of them have to worry about Democrats ever beating them— just a Republican sneaking up on them on their right flank. On the other hand, this crew depend on mainstream voters; there just aren’t enough right-wing loons in their districts:

• Tom Kean (NJ-07)- R+1

• Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR-05)- D+2

• Mike Lawler (NY-17)- D+3

• Anthony D’Esposito (NY-04)- D+5

• Maria Salazar (FL-27)- even

• Bill Huizenga (MI-04)- R+5

• John Durate (CA-13)- D+4

• Nick LaLota (NY-01)- R+3

• Jen Kiggans (VA-02)- R+2

• Zach Nunn (IA-03)- R+3

• Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01)- even

• Bryan Steil (WI-01)- R+3

• Mike Turner (OH-10)- R+4

• Michelle Steel (CA-45)- D+2

• Don Bacon (NE-02)- even

• Brandon Williams (NY-22)- D+1

• David Valadao (CA-22)- D+5

• Ken Calvert (CA-41)- R+3

• Carlos Gimenez (FL-28)- R+2

• Mike Garcia (CA-27)- D+4

• John James (MI-10)- R+3

• Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01)- R+3

• Andrew Garbarino (NY-02)- R+3

• Marc Molinaro (NY-19)- even

Those blue and purple PVIs don’t mean these Republicans are all going to lose— not with the DCCC recruiting excruciatingly bad candidates— but what it does mean is that they need to tread lightly and avoid any appearance of being a MAGA extremist. And voting to shut down the government or impeaching Biden… that would be MAGA extremism. Yesterday a trio of Politico reporters wrote that “Most House Republicans are anxious that a high-profile spending fight in September would set them up for failure just weeks before an election. [Fascists] want to force one anyway. Congress needs to pass a funding bill before Oct. 1 to avoid a government shutdown, a prospect that has caused conflict in the past year but should have been fairly straightforward this time. That’s because most Republicans and Democrats generally acknowledge they’ll need a short-term patch that keeps spending levels steady, known as a continuing resolution or a CR, to avert the shutdown in time. But hard-right conservatives are considering throwing a curveball into those plans: linking the CR to a proposal that requires proof of citizenship to register to vote.”

With the help of 5 right-wing Democrats— Henry Cuellar (Blue Dog-TX), Don Davis (Blue Dog-NC), Jared Golden (Blue Dog-ME), Vicente Gonzalez (Blue Dog-TX) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Blue Dog-WA)— the GOP managed to pass it last July 221-198. The Senate refused to take the bill up.

“I think the overwhelming majority of Republicans and, I think, the leadership, want to see a version of a CR with the SAVE Act the week we get back,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), a leading member of the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus, said in a brief interview.

But attaching that proposal could doom the spending package in the House. Democrats likely won’t vote for it, and Republicans aren’t certain they would have the votes to pass it on their own. GOP leadership is facing skepticism from more pragmatic Republicans who don’t want to flirt with a shutdown. And there’s a pocket of hard-right conservatives who generally oppose any short-term funding patch, even if it has conservative wins.

As a result, it sets up a potential floor defeat just weeks before an election where control of the House majority and White House seem like a toss-up. Still, conservatives say most Republicans want to attach the voting legislation to the spending bill as soon as they return from their extended summer recess, despite the long odds in the Senate.

“There’s certainly some who fear a shutdown. There are some who fear doing a CR of any kind,” Roy added.

House Republican infighting over spending isn’t new; it was a major point in the ejection of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy last year. And while this fight seems tame in comparison, it risks making the GOP look dysfunctional with less than two months until the election.

Ultimately, Republicans acknowledge that even if they get a temporary win by passing a partisan spending patch, the final outcome of the fight is pre-baked. A funding bill that includes the GOP’s noncitizen voting proposal would never pass the Democratically controlled Senate, meaning the House GOP will ultimately have to drop their policy demand anyway. It’s just a question of when.