Japan took control of Taiwan (Formosa then) in 1895, after 2 centuries of Chinese rule. China took it back in 1945, following the Japanese defeat in World War II but it wasn’t until 1952 that Japanese accepted that the island was no longer theirs. In 1949, after Chiang Kai-Shek was defeated by the Communists and the Kuomintang fled to Taiwan, a rump Republic of China was set up on the island, claiming sovereignty over all of China. Eventually, the rest of the world recognized mainland China as the legitimate government and in 1971 Taiwan was expelled from the UN. Not a single significant country maintains full diplomatic relations with Taiwan. (I think Paraguay or Guatemala are the biggest of the 11 mini-states that do.) The U.S., and most other countries, have a form of unofficial diplomatic relations with Taiwan. For the U.S., that has morphed into a policy of “strategic ambiguity,” a kind of cornerstone of somewhat fraught U.S. relations with China and is supposed to serve to deter both a potential Chinese invasion and any unilateral declaration of independence by Taiwan. By not explicitly committing to defend Taiwan, the U.S. aims to maintain stability in the Taiwan Strait. The policy supposedly allows the U.S. to retain flexibility in its response to any future cross-strait crisis, avoiding the need for a predetermined course of action.
Reagan gave Taiwan “six assurances” in 1982 including
No set date for ending arms sales to Taiwan.
No change in the U.S. stance regarding sovereignty over Taiwan.
No pressure on Taiwan to enter into negotiations with the PRC.
No mediation role between Taiwan and the PRC.
No changes to the Taiwan Relations Act.
No alteration in U.S. policy concerning Taiwan's status.
Not even Trump’s bull-in-a-china-shop approach to foreign relations did much to change the strategic ambiguity approach, even though he did take some steps to strengthen U.S.-Taiwan relations and bolster Taiwan's defense capabilities.
Yesterday, Jason Lai and Ken Moritsugu, reporting for the Associated Press, wrote that a “congressional delegation met Taiwan’s new leader on Monday in a show of support days after China held drills around the self-governing island in response to his inauguration. Rep. Andy Barr, the co-chair of the Taiwan caucus in the U.S. Congress, said the United States is fully committed to supporting Taiwan militarily, diplomatically and economically. ‘There should be no doubt, there should be no skepticism in the United States, Taiwan or anywhere in the world, of American resolve to maintain the status quo and peace in the Taiwan Strait,’ the Republican from Kentucky said at a news conference in the capital, Taipei, after the delegation met Taiwan President Lai Ching-te.”
The Chinese government expressed strong opposition to the congressional visit, saying it undermined China-U.S. relations and peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, referring to the waterway between China and Taiwan. The lawmakers’ five-day visit “ran against the political commitment of the U.S. government to maintain only unofficial relations with Taiwan, sending a seriously wrong signal to the separatist force of Taiwan independence,” Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said in Beijing.
Lai, who took office one week ago, is expected to continue the policies of Tsai Ing-wen, his predecessor from the same Democratic Progressive Party.
The new foreign minister, Lin Chia-lung, noted the recent Chinese drills and called the American delegation’s visit “an important gesture of solidarity” at a critical time.
The delegation included four Republicans and two Democrats and was led by Rep. Michael McCaul, the chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Last year, China sanctioned the Texas Republican after he visited Taiwan in April.
“America is and always will be a reliable partner, and no amount of coercion or intimidation will slow down or stop the routine visits by the Congress to Taiwan,” he said.
McCaul cited congressional approval last month of a military aid bill for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. China firmly opposes the U.S. arming Taiwan, Mao said.
The other delegation members were Republicans Young Kim from California and Joe Wilson from South Carolina and Democrats Jimmy Panetta from California and Chrissy Houlahan from Pennsylvania.
Many question the GOP resolve— particularly as MAGAts keep gaining dominance over the party— to defend Taiwan. Last month about 2 dozen hard core MAGAts voted against the aid to Taiwan bill, including Marjorie Traitor Greene, Matt Gaetz, Lauren Boebert, Matt Rosendale, Andy Biggs, Chip Roy, Troy Nehls, Bob Good, Ralph Norman, Paul Gosar…
It’s worth noting that Admiral John Aquilino, who retired last month as commander of the Indo-Pacific Command, said that China is “the only competitor with the military strength, will, and intent to change the world order with authoritarian characteristics and displace the free and open Pacific... Xi Jinping, has tasked his military to deliver the capabilities needed to be able to take on a Taiwan problem by force, if directed. So what you’ve seen with his military budget and the actions is this year, 7.2 percent increase advertised by the PRC towards their defense industry. We see the continuous delivery of fifth-generation airplanes, missile systems, satellites, high-end warships. So they’ve made a conscious choice, despite the economic problem set that you’ve talked about, to invest and continue to deliver military capabilities. That’s what leads me to believe that they are on path to deliver what the president asked for by ’27.
“On top of that, I don’t believe 7.2 percent. The system is so opaque, the way it is calculated, we should never get into a side-by-side comparison of what is the PRC spending against what is the United States spending, and utilizing that as a measure of whether or not we’re on the same path because they are so completely opaque with what they do. So they’ve made that calculus; they’ve made that conscious choice, despite 30 percent of the economy bottoming out of the PRC, to maintain their investment in military capability. That’s concerning to me.
“So for us, it’s pretty important to recognize that the United States’ policy has not changed as it applies to Taiwan. We value and we support the peaceful resolution of this dispute to the satisfaction of people on both sides of the Straits, free of coercion. And what I’ve talked about is the fact that we do not see ‘free of coercion.’ The increased pressure in the maritime and air domain that’s being provided, and the cyber domain, and in the information space from the PRC against the people on Taiwan is continuing, and it has increased over my three years. So that decision will be— President Xi, we hope he makes the smart choice— but to articulate that the United States has changed their position, we do not support an independent Taiwan. Our policy has not changed. They cannot blame the increased coercion activities that they are doing on the United States. It’s just an invalid argument.”
Now here is where trump might be more likely to act. I can't see biden doing anything -- he's a congenital pussy.
Trump hates. And china is one of his hated demos. Of course, they could buy his cooperation for 1% of 1% of the us paper they hold. Kushner could handle that deal for a 10% fee. Sorry for the math-n-shit.