Wondering If The Democrats Can Take Back The House Despite Exceptionally Poor Candidate Quality?

The DCCC Is Getting What It Wants-- A Lesser Of 2 Evils Election Cycle

It's as if they don't WANT to ever learn

At least in theory, the DCCC is targeting 33 districts, 3 that are open blue seats they’re defending— MD-06, where David Trone tried and failed to buy a Senate seat, VA-07, where Abigail Spanberger in running for governor and CA-47, where the crypto-criminals spent immense sums of money to defeat Katie Porter’s Senate bid— and the rest are GOP-held. These are all the districts where the DCCC is supposedly spending, listed here by PVI-

AL-02 (Shomari Figures) D+n.a. but Biden would have won this new district by 12.4 points

CA-22 (Rudy Salas) D+5

NY-04 (Laura Gillen) D+5

CA-27 (George Whitesides) D+4

CA-13 (Adam Gray) D+4

NY-17 (Mondaire Jones) D+3

CA-45 (Dave Min) D+2

CA-45 (Derek Tran) D+2

MD-06 (April Delaney) D+2

OR-05 (Janelle Bynum) D+2

NY-22 (John Mannion) D+1

VA-07 (Eugene Vindman) D+1

NY-19 (Josh Riley) even PVI

PA-01 (Ashley Ehasz) even PVI

NE-2 (Tony Vargas) even PVI

NJ-07 (Sue Altman) R+1

MI-08 (Kristen Rivet) R+1

TX-15 (Michelle Vallejo) R+1

 AZ-01 (Amish Shah) R+2

MI-07 (Curtis Hertel) R+2

VA-02 (Missy Smasal) R+2

AZ-6 (Kirsten Engel) R+3

NY-01 (John Avlon) R+3

CA-41 (Will Rollins) R+3

IA-01 (Christina Bohanan) R+3

IA-03 (Lanon Baccam) R+3

MI-10 (Carl Marlinga) R+3

WI-01 (Peter Barca) R+3

WI-03 (Rebecca Cooke) R+4

PA-10 (Janelle Stelson) R+5

FL-13 (Whitney Fox) R+6

MT-01 (Monica Tranel) R+6

CO-03 (Adam Frisch) R+7

Only Sue Altman looks like she’ll make an outstanding member of Congress. The rest range from pretty good to beyond horrible, a few not even worth voting for at all, like Rudy Salas, John Avlon, Adam Gray… Most of the others are really terrible but those 3 are so bad they’re not worth supporting even to defeat a Republican!

I found an interesting story in Axios by Andrew Solender and Hans Nichols yesterday. It’s about how MAGA Mike and Hakeem Jeffries are spending real money in long-shot races. The Republicans have shoveled $16.7 million into 7 districts rated “lean” or “likely Democrat” and the Dems have invested a more robust $21 million into districts rated “lean” or “likely Republican.” The GOP targets:

• Josh Harder— CA-09 (D+5)

• Open [Katie Porter/Dave Min]— CA-47 (D+3)

• Jahana Hayes— CT-05 (D+3)

• Val Hoyle— OR-4 (D+4)

• Pat Ryan— NY-18 (D+1)

• Marcy Kaptur— OH-09 (D+3)

• Vicente Gonzalez— TX-34 (D+9)

And the new Democratic targets:

• John James— MI-10 (R+3)

• Ryan Zinke— MT-01 (R+6)

• Scott Perry— PA-10 (R+5)

• Monica De La Cruz— TX-15 (R+1)

• Jen Kiggans— VA-02 (R+2)

• Derrick Van Orden— WI-03 (R+4)

I can’t get too worked up over the DCCC’s mediocre candidates even though I would like to see the Democrats snatch back control of the House from MAGA Mike and his team of Trump asslickers. Lori Chavez-DeRemer is one of the vulnerable Republican freshmen being pounded by the DCCC. Last cycle they sabotaged the progressive Democrat running for the open seat but this year the DCCC is all in because they have their favorite kind of Democrat— one that will do as she’s told, Janelle Bynum. The district has a D+2 PVI and the partisan lean is D+3. Biden beat Trump there 53.2% to 44.4%— a solid 8.9 margin. Had the DCCC not undercut Jamie McLeod Skinner, she would be defending her seat now. Even with the DCCC antipathy, it was one of the closest races in the country— 178,813 (51.0%) to 171,514 (49.0%). The Republicans spent 6 times more helping Chavez-DeRemer than the DCCC spent.

In any case, yesterday Jennifer Bendery reported that at the district debate Tuesday Bynum accused Chavez-DeRemer of “telling an ‘outright lie’ that she has supported a so-called ‘heartbeat bill,’ legislation that would ban abortion after six weeks of pregnancy. Where I think Rep. Chavez-DeRemer fails us is that she promised to uphold Roe and then yet she has voted 13 times on bills that essentially would pass a national abortion ban.’”

Chavez-DeRemer, sensing the danger “interjected ‘That’s a lie’... Chavez-DeRemer’s response to Bynum’s claim was deceptive; she said she hadn’t voted for a heartbeat bill, which is different from supporting one. But Chavez-DeRemer did support a heartbeat bill— her endorsement of it is still public and easy for anyone to see. ‘A vast majority of Americans want restrictions on abortion and I would be in favor of passing legislation like the heartbeat bill,’ Chavez-DeRemer tweeted in May 2022.”

The Oregon Republican did not co-sponsor the heartbeat bill in the current Congress. She has voted for bills that restrict abortion access, though.

In one case, she voted to block the government from reimbursing people in the military who had to travel in order to get an abortion. In another case, she voted for legislation to impose fines or jail time on doctors who don’t provide care to infants in the exceedingly rare case of a fetus being born alive after a failed abortion. This bill was strongly opposed by reproductive health experts, who warned its real intent was to stigmatize health care and restrict abortion access.

Curiously, just five months after her tweet, Chavez-DeRemer was already trying to walk back her support for a six-week abortion ban.

In a testy October 2022 interview with a local TV anchor, Laural Porter of KGW News, Chavez-DeRemer stumbled over questions about the heartbeat bill.

“Do you stand by that support for the heartbeat bill?” Porter asked, referencing her May 2022 tweet.

“Well, there was a conversation about what could this look like if we had to have this conversation. And I know that there’s been conversation about the pain bill, there’s been conversations about the 24-week, when a child, baby, cannot survive without the mom. And there’s all those conversations,” Chavez-DeRemer said. “I think the exact thing that should be, should be right here in the hands of Oregonians. And that’s where I would like to keep it and not have it on the floor of Congress.”

After that incredible word salad, Porter said she was “not quite understanding what you’re saying” and asked again if she thinks abortion should be banned after six weeks. Chavez-DeRemer responded by saying she wouldn’t support a federal abortion ban and then suggested she would support a 12-week abortion ban in the state.

“Would you ever support a ban on abortion at six weeks or after?” asked Porter.

“I think women should have access up until the first trimester,” replied Chavez-DeRemer.

“All the way up till 12 weeks,” said Porter.

“Yes, the first trimester,” said Chavez-DeRemer.

“So you changed your mind on what you tweeted?” asked Porter.

“No, I did not change my mind. I have always felt this way,” the Oregon Republican said. “That question was asked on a conversation about if this ever came to the floor, of six weeks, what is the conversation look like.”

Porter, again, brought up her tweet in support of the heartbeat bill and said it seems “different than what you’re saying now.”

“No. No. It’s not different,” insisted Chavez-DeRemer. “My position has never changed, Laurel.”

On the other hand, I was very excited to see the biggest newspaper in New Jersey endorse Sue Altman late yesterday, while tearing Tom Kean Jr to pieces. “If he emerged from his shell,” wrote the editors, “Kean would have to defend his endorsement of Trump, in a district that voted for Joe Biden in 2020. He’d have to answer for his long history of opposing abortion rights in a district that’s packed with college-educated women. He’d have to tell seniors why he sided with Big Pharma against successful efforts to cut prescription drug costs by allowing Medicare to negotiate discounts. He’d have to share his views on Trump’s promise to pardon the January 6 rioters and his plan to abandon the fight on climate. And does it matter to Kean that Trump is a rapist who was convicted of fraud? Kean is silent because he has no answers for any of that. Better to appear a fool for those long few minutes in the elevator. He has agreed to one debate, at least, on Sunday night, so we’ll have to hope the questioners don’t allow him to squirm away with platitudes for 90 minutes and go back into hiding.”

Altman is an Oxford-educated activist who has never held public office, but she has been a leader in the effort to reform New Jersey’s corrupt Democratic machines as head of the Working Families Alliance. A former professional basketball player who grew up in the district, she is bringing huge energy to the race, holding a series of open town hall meetings, raising record sums of money from small donors, and pushing an agenda that largely aligns with the policies of Kamala Harris. She’s been endorsed by a long list of Democratic stalwarts, like unions and environmental groups, along with Planned Parenthood and Emily’s List.

Altman is not a reflexive partisan and has in fact waged battle with several leaders of her own party, most notably with George Norcross, the boss in South Jersey who was indicted this summer on corruption charges.