Will Kamala Have Coattails? How Big?

Can The DCCC Really Be This Dysfunctional Cycle After Cycle?

"The Race Is On" by Nancy Ohanian

For those saying we’re in another 2008 moment, it’s worth remembering that earn obsess obliterated McCain in a high turnout election by close to 10 million votes (52.9% to 45.7%), the Democrats had a net gain of 21 seats (losing 5 but gaining 26). It was a blue wave election, with 65.2 million voters picking Democrats (53.2%) and 52.2 million (42.6%) opting for Republicans. Democrats picked up one Republican seat in Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Idaho, Illinois, Maryland, Nevada, New Jersey, North Carolina, Pennsylvania plus two each in Michigan and New Mexico and 3 each in New York, Ohio and Virginia. It was the first time since 1980 (Reagan) in which the party of a newly elected president simultaneously gained seats in the House. It was the last time Democrats won a majority of House seats in Arkansas, Indiana, Mississippi, Ohio, Tennessee, West Virginia and Wisconsin and the last time Democrats won seats in Idaho and either Dakota. At the same time, the 51-49 Democratic advantage in the Senate exploded into a 57-41 blue advantage as the Democrats picked up 8 Republican seats, defeating incumbents in New Hampshire, Oregon, North Carolina, Minnesota and Alaska, and winning red open seats in. Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico.

In other words, Obama had coattails. If Kamala’s momentum— and Trump’s collapse— continue apace, can we expect her to help flip seats as well? Democratic candidates are saying so. Yesterday, when we looked at a Republican running as a Democrat, John Avlon, arguably the worst Democratic candidate challenging an incumbent anywhere in the country, he acknowledged that Kamala’s popularity was a game-changer for his campaign. Interestingly, Obama helped sweep a number of especially shitty Democrats into office as well— many of whom opposed his agenda— and who were quickly defeated, such as Bobby Bright (Blue Dog-AL), Ann Kirkpatrick (Blue Dog-AZ), Suzanne Kosmas (Blue Dog-FL), Walt Minnick (Blue Dog-ID), Frank Kratovil (Blue Dog-MD), Harry Teague (Blue Dog-NM), Michael McMahon (Blue Dog-NY), Dan Maffei (Blue Dog-NY), Larry Kissell (Blue Dog-NC), Steve Dreihaus (Blue Dog-OH), John Boccieri (Blue Dog-OH), Kathy Dahlkemper (Blue Dog-PA) and Glenn Nye (Blue Dog-VA). You’d think the DCCC would learn lessons about running shitty candidates; they don’t— and this cycle is one of the worst ever, with an unbelievably bad roster of excruciatingly bad candidates the DCCC is heavily investing in, some, like Rudy Salas and Adam Gray in California, every bit as bad as Avlon.

Yesterday, Max Cohen, Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Melanie Zanona looked around the state of the House races in light of Kamala’s increasingly likely chance to crush Trump and his MAGA movement. “It’s a bit obvious and overly simplistic,” they wrote, “to just say that Harris’ soaring fortunes should help down-ballot Democrats. Of course.” They absolutely do NOT see a blue wave in the House. The inside-the-Beltway perspective is that there are just a few House seats up for grabs— a number determined by the DCCC, NRCC, pundit and Beltway media, not the voters— and that despite the fact that MAGA Mike has been unable to go beyond keeping the lights on— and only barely— the voters are going to keep the House in the hands of a small, dysfunctional majority, regardless of it being red or blue.

They wrote that they don’t believe in coattails this year for reasons that, again, ignore voter sentiment, catering entirely to their inside-baseball readership:

1) The House map isn’t the same as the presidential map.

The battleground for the House lies largely outside of the states that will determine the next occupant of the White House. Undoubtedly, the increase in enthusiasm associated with Harris could boost Democrats in tight races.

But consider this: Of the 22 most competitive seats rated as “toss-ups” by the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, only seven are in presidential swing states. So there’ll be big fights for competitive House seats in states where the presidential campaigns won’t spend a dime.

“Our majority lives and dies in blue states,” said Dan Conston, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, the House GOP-leadership affiliated super PAC. “The environment is just a couple ticks better for Republicans in those swing districts than it is elsewhere. That has been a consistent phenomena for six years, and it very much exists the same way today.”

Deep-blue states like New York and California have a plethora of competitive seats. Plus, there will be close House races in Ohio, Maine, Colorado, Washington State and Alaska— none of which will benefit in a major way from presidential race spending. Harris and former President Donald Trump won’t spend much time there between now and Election Day.

“The presidential race is not going to be fought in those states,” DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said in Chicago Monday. “This is also a place where House infrastructure is important and House investments are important because these are states where the competitive races are House races.”

2) The money angle.

Let’s be blunt here. Democrats are absolutely walloping Republicans in the fundraising game. The DCCC has $17 million more in the bank than the NRCC as of June 30. Vulnerable Democrats are far ahead of their GOP challengers.

DelBene dug deeper during a roundtable with reporters Monday. A stunning 97% of Frontliners outraised their Republican opponents last quarter, she said. And vulnerable Democratic incumbents have an average of five times as much cash in the bank.

It’s a massive advantage for candidates to have big piles of cash because they can buy TV time far cheaper than campaign committees.

Just on Monday, the DCCC Independent Expenditure program announced another $27 million in ad reservations, which comes on top of the $28 million announced in June. Of the new ad reservations, $8 million is going to New York and another $5 million to California.

But when you take into account the super PACs, the picture gets fuzzier. As of July 15, CLF had $110 million on hand. House Majority PAC, the Democratic super PAC, had $88 million.

In short, while Democratic candidates and the DCCC have far more money than their GOP opponents, the Republican super PAC is outpacing the Democrats’ equivalent group.

3) It’s only August.

Things look good for Democrats now. There’s no disputing that. Yet think back to just one month ago.

Trump had just survived an assassination attempt. The images of the bloodied former president pumping his fist in the air led many political prognosticators to believe there was no way he would lose in November. Republicans gathered for the RNC in Milwaukee confident of gains in the House and Senate.

Then Biden dropped out following his disastrous debate performance and everything changed. It’s a lesson that the political climate could— and likely will— shift again between now and Nov. 5.

There will be at least one Harris-Trump debate. There could be an escalation in the ongoing war in the Middle East. Any post-DNC bump for Democrats may fade. No one knows what developments lie in store between now and Election Day.

4) Republicans are more trusted on key issues.

Recent polling has shown the GOP with an edge when voters are asked what party they trust to handle the overall economy, immigration and inflation, the top issues this year.

Of course, Democrats retain the edge on abortion rights. Expect that message to be repeated over and over again in competitive House seats.

Progressive Democrat Derek Marshall is running for a red-leaning seat in San Bernardino County that the DCCC pretty much wrote off. But now, he’s starting to feel significant optimism. “We are absolutely noticing huge energy at the grassroots level,” he told us. “It feels like I am drinking water from a fire hose. The beauty of this moment from a big picture perspective, is that it appears that the left and the establishment of the Democratic Party are united in a way that I haven’t seen since at least Obama in 2008, but probably much before. Perhaps not even in my lifetime.”

Thomas Witkop is running in a swing district in Florida, currently held by MAGA-crazy Brian Mast. This morning, he told us that “Honestly, I wasn't sure how America would respond to Kamala taking over for Joe. Turns out it was incredible. The groundswell is palpable. My crowds have tripled and quadrupled in size since Harris is taken over. Folks are ecstatic especially here in Florida that's drawing more volunteers than any other swing state. Grateful for Joe Biden's patriotic courage to step aside and Harris's dynamism.”

Rodney Govens is running in the eastern Arkansas congressional district that was a shoo-in for Democrats until the GOP grabbed a majority in the state legislature and gerrymandered the sellout of the state. Now it’s a district that Trump won with 69%! And the Republican incumbent, knee -jerk MAGAt Rick Crawford was reelected last time with 73.8%! Govens is hoping that Kamala is going to make a difference. He told us yesterday that “We need to reinvest in the American people, and that is what Kamala Harris has done for us without any financing. She's invested her own hope for a better future, and in doing so she's injected hope in the rest of us, and the idea of what could be. We can have leadership that does care about us. We can have leadership that knows what it's like to live paycheck to paycheck. We can have leadership that understands our plight, our struggles… We can have that kind of leadership in Washington, D.C., but it will require  every single person investing. And you don't have to invest money, but we must invest the time: for one day in this country, sacrifice some time and go cast a vote so that we can reject project 2025, so that we can reject the tyranny that we are faced with today, reject the politics of hate and weaponized chaos. If we show up and vote, we can choose for our nation what Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are bringing to the table— the very thing that this country sorely needs and the thing that we've been lacking for quite some time: a little bit of hope mixed with a lot of decency.”

Govens visited the southern borden with Jerrad Christian and others on the trip with Vote Common Good. Christian’s district is also rough— albeit not as rough— and he had a similar perspective. “Kamala Harris and Tim Walz running in 2024 is helping every Democratic campaign by getting more people excited about voting and bringing out joy and hope. Their focus on issues like healthcare and fairness line up with what I’m fighting for out here. This energy is bringing more volunteers and boosting our chances of winning. With Kamala looking strong against Trump, we all have a better shot in November.”

So… what will Cohen, Sherman, Bresnahan and Zanona say on November 6th when the blue wave has swept MAGA Mike and his monkey-conference out of their ability to keep gumming up the works. That’s be fun to watch. Meanwhile, if you want to help flip that chamber— and make sure there are at least some progressives who are elected— here’s the place.