What’s with the Libertarian Party? Do they just put whoever wants to be on the ballot on their line? The QAnon Shaman is running for Congress as a Libertarian in Arizona. Ramaswamy flirted with the idea of running on their presidential line when it started becoming clear Republicans weren’t interested. But last fall, when RFK Jr declared he’s not a Democrats but would run as an independent, reports ruled out the Libertarians. “RFK Jr.'s declaration is notable for another reason: It ends speculation that he might seek the Libertarian Party's presidential nomination. Kennedy is not a libertarian and historically has held positions on a variety of issues that are fairly anathema to libertarianism, including his views on environmental regulation, affirmative action, and until recently, gun control. But he is an outspoken opponent of COVID-19 mandates— as well as the COVID-19 vaccines— and a critic of American foreign policy with respect to the Ukraine-Russia war. These last two stances have endeared him to some in the Libertarian Party, who hoped that he was moving in a libertarian direction on a variety of issues. RFK Jr. attended both PorcFest and FreedomFest, two yearly libertarian festivals, and seemed to be sincerely courting independent voters of both populist and libertarian bents. He also fielded questions from Reason and others about his evolving views.” Except his knee-jerk support for Israel. Libertarians didn’t go for that at all. Party chair Angela McArdle sees the party as a peace party and opposes aid to Israel.
But… apparently there has been some rejuggling going on since then. Running on the Libertarian line looks convenient for RFK Jr since it will get him onto the ballot in some swing states where he hasn’t been making nay headway.
“It is interesting that the man who said he belongs to no party now suddenly wants to belong to a party when it serves his interest,” said Doug Gordon, a longtime Democratic strategist.
“Hijacking the Libertarian Party ballot line won’t change his odds of winning the presidency, which he has no chance at,” Gordon said. “But it does increase the odds he could play spoiler and hand the keys to the White House back to Trump.”
Gordon is not alone. Democrats groan about Kennedy being an impediment to Biden— who has seen sagging poll numbers for months on end— winning another White House term. Many believe they have a long and foreseeably hard path to November and want to focus their fire on former President Trump. But Kennedy’s unpredictable presence in the race makes it harder to do that.
…Kennedy has so far taken small steps to familiarize himself with the Libertarian cause. He’s slated to speak at the party’s convention in California, a delegate-rich state where he has started collecting signatures, according to his campaign’s ballot access website.
“The people who support Trump have already made up their mind. Kennedy won’t be peeling off Trump supporters,” Charles Byrd, who chairs the Libertarian Party of Stanislaus County, Calif., told The Hill. “Most of Kennedy’s supporters are people from across the spectrum whose big issues are personal autonomy and parental rights in the context of the vaccine debate.”
Despite becoming friendly with the Libertarian Party’s top brass, some local party officials such as Byrd do not agree that Kennedy is the right fit for their ticket. He’s too left-of-center on issues including guns and the First Amendment, which are some of their leading causes.
“Kennedy isn’t as pro-gun as I would like him to be,” Byrd said. “I am a Second Amendment absolutist. All gun laws are infringements, and [it] should be just as easy to buy a firearm as it would be to buy a screwdriver or a hammer. Then there’s the ‘three hots and a cots’ comment he made about global warming skeptics … [which] shows a disregard for free speech.”
But, it’s not just the Biden camp that’s worried. Kennedy claims Trump reached out to him as a possible running mate. Kennedy turned him down and now Trump denies it ever happened and has gone on the attack— bigly:
One reason Trump may be pissed off— aside from the idea that anyone would turn him down— is because his campaign donors are financing Kennedy’s run. On Tuesday night, Jessica Piper reported that Kennedy is taking in about twice as much from Trump donors than he is from Biden donors.
A poll from Monmouth last month indicated that “One in five voters indicate some likelihood of casting a vote for Kennedy in a presidential contest that features Biden and Trump. This includes 6% who say they definitely will vote for Kennedy and 15% who probably will. If all these voters followed through on what they are now telling pollsters, their support for Kennedy would cost each major party nominee 14% of their current base. However, focusing just on those who will definitely vote for Kennedy, Biden loses just 4% of his current support and Trump loses only 3%. Among voters who are not backing either Biden or Trump at this time, about half say they will definitely (15%) or probably (34%) support Kennedy. Another way to look at these results is that about 3 in 10 potential Kennedy supporters would otherwise be inclined to vote for Trump and a similar 3 in 10 would otherwise lean toward Biden, with the remaining 4 in 10 Kennedy backers being people who do not support either major party candidate… Currently, 24% of American voters have a favorable opinion of Kennedy while 34% hold an unfavorable view. Despite his family pedigree, Democrats (55% unfavorable) are much more likely than Republicans (17% unfavorable) to have a negative opinion of Kennedy. While other voters have no opinion of the activist and lawyer, only 13% say they have never heard of Kennedy.”
In a YouGov poll released yesterday, 42% of 2020 Trump voters who said they would prefer to vote for someone else rather than Trump or Biden, picked RFK Jr as their choice.
Comments