Which House Seats Are The Republicans Most Likely To Give Up By Following Trump Into Hell?

Pundits Forecast Half A Dozen— They're Off By A Factor Of 5!

Sooner or later every Republican up for reelection next year is going to have to decide whether they’re more afraid of Trump or more afraid of their own constituents. A bill introduced in the Senate last week by Patty Murray (D-WA) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) reclaiming Congress’ role in trade policy pushes that decision up. So far 6 Republicans besides Grassley— Jerry Moran (KS), Lisa Murkowski (AK), Mitch McConnell (KY), Susan Collins (ME), Thom Tillis (NC) and Todd Young (IN)— have signed on as co-sponsors. It looks like Ted Cruz (TX), Mike Rounds (SD) and Rand Paul (KY) will be joining them imminently. That still isn’t enough to overcome a GOP filibuster… but it’s getting very close.

Trump’s catastrophic tariff’s have crashed the stock market,  roiled the economy and left the U.S. isolated internationally. Americans who were already turning against Trump and starting to turned against the Republican Party as well. Unemployment and inflation rates are rising and a recession is now built into economic forecasts.

Don Bacon (R-NE) said he’s introducing a companion bill in the House this week.

On Friday, only one Senate Republican, Josh Hawley (MO), joined the Democrats to support Bernie’s amendment to increase the minimum wage to $17 an hour. Republicans also voted down amendments by Jon Ossoff (D-GA) to reverse cuts to the Social Security Administration ordered by Elon Musk, an amendment by Mazie Hirono (D-HI) to prevent Musk’s DOGE from closing Social Security field and regional offices and preserving access to benefits for seniors and people with disabilities and an amendment by Ed Markey (D-MA) to prevent DOGE from cutting Americans’ access to vital phone services.

It’s almost like Republicans want to be pulverized at the polls next year. Judging from last week’s special election in FL-06, an R+14 district, that saw the GOP lose all its independent support, no Republican in a district with a PVI of under R+6 is safe. Some Republicans with of R+6 districts and higher are also very vulnerable (like Maria Salazar in Miami-Dade) are vulnerable too, but there are the ones who look like goners to me at this point (IF the Democrats nominate plausible candidates, which, unfortunately, is unlikely at least half the time and will be even worse than that with Suzan DelBene leading the DCCC):

• AZ-01- R+1- David Schweikert

• AZ-06- even- Juan Ciscomani

• CA-03- R+2- Kevin Kiley

• CA- 22- R+1- David Valadao

• CA-40- R+1- Young Kim

• CA-41- R+2- Ken Calvert

• CO-03- R+5- Jeff Hurd

• CO-05- R+5- Jeff Crank

• CO-08- even- Gabe Evans

• FL-04- R+5- Aaron Bean

• FL-07- R+5- Cory Mills

• FL-13- R+5- Anna Paulina Luna

• FL-15- R+5- Laurel Lee

• IA-01- R+4- Mariannette Miller-Meeks

• IA-02- R+4- Ashley Hinson

• IA-03- R+2- Zach Nunn

• MI-04- R+3- Bill Huizenga

• MI-07- even- Tom Barrett

• MI-10- R+3- John James

• MO-02- R+4- Ann Wagner

• MT-01- R+5- Ryan Zinke

• NE-02- D+3- Don Bacon

• NJ-02- R+5- Jeff Van Drew

• NJ-07- even- Tom Kean

• NY-01- R+4- Nick LaLota

• NY-17- D+1- Mike Lawler

• NC-11- R+5- Chuck Edwards

• OH-07- R+5- Max Miller

• OH-10- R+3- Mike Turner

• PA-01- D+1- Brian Fitzpatrick

• PA-07- R+1- Ryan Mackenzie

• PA-08- R+4- Rob Bresnahan

• PA-10- R+3- Scott Perry

• VA-01- R+3- Rob Wittman

• VA-02- even- Jen Kiggans

• WA-05- R+5- Michael Baumgartner

• WI-01- R+2- Bryan Steil

• WI-03- R+3- Derrick Van Orden