What It Takes To Win A Republican Party Primary Is What It Takes To Lose A General Election

Republican politicians are having an increasingly difficult time with messaging as the party’s base— primary voters— descend into a world dominated by QAnon, racists, Nazis, hucksters and all kinds of extremists who are completely detached from anything resembling mainstream America. How do you campaign for the primary without undermining your own chances in the general?

In a report from the Associated Press this morning, Tom Beaumont and Hannah Fingerhut, analyzing the results of VoteCast, AP’s national survey of the midterm electorate, wrote that the inability of GOP messaging to connect with independents and swing voters cost the party dearly in the midterms. “Republican House candidates nationwide won the support of 38% of independent voters in last month’s midterm elections, VoteCast showed. That’s far short of the 51% that Democrats scored with the same group in 2018 when they swept into power by picking up 41 seats. The GOP’s lackluster showing among independents helps explain in part why Republicans flipped just nine seats, securing a threadbare majority that has already raised questions about the party’s ability to govern… McCarthy unveiled a campaign proposal in September titled ‘Commitment to America,’ billed as a GOP agenda. However, the proposal, a collection of repackaged goals such as increased domestic petroleum production, was light on details and mentioned little during the campaign.”

Some Republican strategists say the finding is a sign that messages that resonate during party primaries, including searing critiques of Biden, were less effective in the general election campaign because independent voters were searching for more than just the opposition.

“You’ve got to tell them what you’re going to do,” said David Winston, a Republican pollster and senior adviser to House Republicans who had been critical of GOP candidates’ messaging strategy this year. “Somehow the Republican campaigns managed not to do that. And that’s a real serious problem.”

…VoteCast suggests that independent voters distinguished between the problems facing the U.S. and Biden’s culpability for them. While few independents said the economy is doing well and about two-thirds disapproved of Biden’s handling of it, independents were slightly more likely to say inflation is the result of factors outside Biden’s control than that Biden is to blame, 51% to 47%, according to the survey.

…Democrats did significantly better among true independents and those who lean toward a party than they have in recent midterms when they have also held the White House, according to analysis of Pew Research Center post-election surveys of self-identified voters in 2014, 2010 and 1998.

…Besides the contention that GOP candidates did not focus on independents, Winston suggests that independent voters might be hesitating to lurch toward the alternative in the wake of the turmoil of Donald Trump’s presidency.

“Change has to be something they are willing to vote for, as opposed to just the knee-jerk reaction that ‘this is bad so I’m just going to go another direction,’” Winston said.

Across the country, GOP extremists who won contentious House primaries in competitive or even red districts, did shockingly badly in the general. The Republicans felt certain they would hold onto WA-03 in southwest Washington but when MAGA extremist Joe Kent beat mainstream Republican Jaime Herrera Buetler, a district with an overwhelming R+11 partisan lean became suddenly vulnerable… even if the DCCC never realized it. Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez won without their help, albeit very narrowly— 160,323 (50.4%) to 157,690 (49.6%).

There were over a dozen districts where Republicans were confident they would flip seats from blue to red but where extremist primary winners bombed in the general, in many cases against very mediocre Democrats. In New Hampshire, MAGA freaks won the congressional primaries against mainstream Republicans and then all lost the general. A good example was in the first congressional district, where fully deranged neo-fascist crackpot Karoline Leavitt beat a very conservative former senior Trump White House advisor, Matt Mowers, 15,290 (33.4%) to 11,650 (25.5%) in a 10 person race. The R+1 partisan lean looked promising to the GOP but independent voters were horrified by Leavitt’s crazy extremism and incumbent Chris Pappas held on— 146,818 (53.7%) to 126,609 (46.3%) in the general. It was just in races where the Democrats had especially horrible candidates— like corrupt conservatives Adam Gray and Rudy Salas in California’s Central Valley— that Republicans were able to make significant headway with independent voters.

As the 2024 presidential election starts coming into focus and potential challengers to Trump start showing their cards, this toxic dynamic is being more and more fretted over by Republican strategists and operatives, especially with Trump already stumbling out of the gate and polls showing him increasingly vulnerable. On Christmas Eve, Hannah Knowles, reported that though he certainly hasn’t announced a presidential campaign yet, DeSantis is already running Google and Facebook ads (as is South Carolina Senator Tim Scott), targeting a national audience. Pompeo— who is likely hoping to win up a VP nominee— is trying to hire staff in early primary states. And soon to be Arkansas ex-Governor Asa Hutchinson is trying to persuade donors he’s a viable candidate.

Potential Republican rivals to Donald Trump are ramping up their 2024 maneuverings, reflecting a growing sense in the party that the former president is far from the inevitable nominee after a midterm election in which he was blamed for many of the party’s woes. “You never know when that early front-runner is going to stumble,” said Hutchinson, who is urging the party to move on from Trump and said it’s too soon to say who else will catch on.

So far, Trump is the only major candidate who has officially announced his 2024 bid. But both publicly and behind the scenes, major Republican figures are laying the foundations for potential campaigns, according to a review of their activities and interviews with people familiar with the planning, some of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal strategy.

Many operatives said they see benefits to sitting back and methodically preparing while Trump deals with growing problems. The former president faces several investigations; criticism of his associations, including a widely condemned dinner he had with antisemites; and growing calls in the party to go in a new direction.

…Potential contenders are well into laying groundwork for campaigns, as more than a dozen have signaled interest or have declined to rule out a run amid speculation. Yet it’s unclear how many will actually take the plunge. A crowded field could play to Trump’s advantage, as it did in 2016 when the rest of the party did not unite around a single alternative as Trump won key early contests with a plurality of the vote.

Aside from DeSantis, Pompeo and Hutchinson, other Republicans in the hunt include Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, Larry Hogan, Ted Cruz, Glenn Youngkin, Liz Cheney, Greg Abbott, Kristi Noem, Tim Scott, Chris Sununu, John Bolton, Brian Kemp, Marco Rubio. Republicans who have already taken themselves out of the running include Rick Scott, Tucker Carlson, Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Mitt Romney. Of course, there’s always a chance that Rand Paul could jump in. Knowles noted that “Trump leads in many 2024 polls, but DeSantis has started to outpace him in some head-to-head surveys, and congressional allies are not rushing to endorse the former president. Former members of Trump’s administration are trying to stake claims to key parts of his coalition, with Pence appealing heavily to the religious right and centering his opposition to abortion. In some states, governors are preparing for legislative sessions early next year that could provide new platforms for a presidential pitch. In Florida, where new GOP supermajorities will give DeSantis even more power to enact his agenda, Republicans expect to tackle abortion, data privacy and ‘constitutional carry’ for firearms, according to a Tallahassee lobbyist familiar with the plans, as well as the use of ‘environmental, social and governance’ (ESG) criteria in investing— a practice increasingly vilified on the right as liberal excess. State officials have started to preview some of that agenda.”

The problem, of course, is that many of these policies, popular with the Republican base, are unpopular with normal Americans. Republican governors and senators, for example, are trying to take credit over who’s tougher on TikTok. That may not play well with the 66 million active monthly TikTok users in the U.S, where there are over 94 million accounts. TikTok has over 3 times more users than Twitter. And yet Josh Hawley, Marco Rubio, Kristi Noem, Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis are all competing to be the top banker of the popular social media platform. Forget TikTok and think about how many Americans disagree with these Republicans’ unpopular stands on abortion and guns— not to mention tax cuts for the rich and cutting Social Security and Medicare benefits. Do you think shipping busloads of Hispanic refugees on Christmas Eve to DC’s sub-freezing weather as a stunt meant to embarrass Kamala Harris, helped Greg Abbott or hurt him? It may have helped with xenophobic GOP bigots… but normal American voters? Probably not.

This morning Brett Samuels worked to delineate the policy differences between Trump and DeSantis, as if Trump cares about any policies at all. Still, he wrote, “Some of DeSantis’s policy positions are in direct conflict with Trump’s. That sets up a contrast for the Florida governor to highlight should he run against Trump for the 2024 GOP nomination. ‘We’ll continue to see this cold war get hotter and hotter, and the only thing to watch is when DeSantis starts to openly criticize or respond to Trump,’ said Sam Nunberg, a GOP strategist [and Trump enemy] who advised Trump’s 2016 campaign. ‘He doesn’t have to while he’s governor, but eventually he will as a candidate.’ Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic is increasingly seen as a possible political weak point for the former president among Republican primary voters. Trump oversaw the shuttering of the U.S. economy in the early months of the pandemic at the urging of public health experts. That allowed governors such as DeSantis to win the support of their constituents by allowing businesses in their states to remain open, bucking federal guidelines.

Last week, DeSantis again seemed to move to the right of Trump when he formed a state committee to act as a counterbalance to federal health agencies such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and said he would request a grand jury investigation into COVID-19 vaccines.

Health experts and even some Republicans panned the move, arguing it would sow distrust in medicine and vaccines at a time when the federal government is pushing more Americans to get booster shots protecting them from the virus. It also risks alienating more moderate voters.

The COVID-19 vaccines were developed during the Trump administration, something Trump has repeatedly sought credit for. But the former president has largely refrained from talking about the vaccines since leaving office, and, unlike other top officials, he did not get his shot in public, underscoring the delicate line he is trying to walk with some of his supporters who have questioned its efficacy.

While pandemic policies are one issue where there may be daylight between Trump and DeSantis, the governor’s allies and strategists believe that another key point of difference is in the governor’s legislative record more broadly.

“I think the overall narrative and differentiation will be that DeSantis gets things done, and he’s not a cult of personality,” said one Florida-based Republican strategist. “While President Trump is running for himself, DeSantis is running for the people and showing he can do effective government.”

“Trump will want to say that everything up until the pandemic was a major success and you should judge him on that,” the strategist added.

…DeSantis, meanwhile, has used his post as governor to be at the forefront of culture war issues that matter to conservative voters.

He backed a law to restrict discussion of gender and sexuality among younger schoolchildren, transported migrants from Texas to the liberal enclave of Martha’s Vineyard, and pushed back against mask requirements in schools. He also signed off on a congressional map that strongly favored Republicans, helping the party pick up additional seats in November’s midterms.

DeSantis is expected to delay any announcement on a 2024 campaign until the late spring or summer, using the upcoming legislative session to rack up more policy victories that could set him apart from Trump and others who are not in office.

“It’s not complicated, @RonDeSantisFL is leading the polls for a reason. Principled, conservative, leadership on issues Floridians (and all Americans) care about,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) tweeted.

Unspoken by Samuels is that Roy is an extremist whose positions across the board on issues important to voters are very unpopular and could only sell in deep red districts like his own carefully gerrymandered TX-21 with an R+24 partisan lean. Trump won close to 60% of the vote in his district. That’s not representative of America— nor even of Texas any longer.