There are nearly 400,000 horse-and-buggy Amish— not including Beachy Amish (named for Moses Beachy, not because they’re surfers) or the Amish Mennonites or other quasi-modernized ones— in the U.S. The biggest concentrations are in Pennsylvania (92,660), Ohio (85,965) and Indiana (65,540). There are 9 Pennsylvania counties with significant Amish populations, Lancaster being the biggest— over 43,000 (7.4% of the county). Here’s all 9, listed by percentage of population in their counties— and including Trump’s percentage of votes in 2020 and 2024:
Juniata Co- 3,590 (9.7%)
2020- Trump- 79.93%
2024- Trump- 80.31%
Mifflin Co- 3,830 (8.2%)
2020- Trump- 77.37%
2024- Trump- 77.95%
Lancaster Co- 43,000 (7.4%)
2020- Trump- 56.94%
2024- Trump- 57.48%
Somerset Co- 5,850 (4.2%)
2020- Trump- 77.45%
2024- Trump- 78.28%
Huntingdon Co- 3,120 (3.5%)
2020- Trump- 74.69%
2024- Trump- 76.13%
Lebanon Co- 4,000 (3.1%)
2020- Trump- 65.03%
2024- Trump- 65.42%
Cumberland Co- 4,560 (1.9%)
2020- Trump- 54.30%
2024- Trump- 54.14%
Berks Co- 6,850 (1.3%)
2020- Trump- 53.22%
2024- Trump- 55.60%
Chester Co- 6,350 (1.1%)
2020- Trump- 40.72%
2024- Trump- 42.26%
Statewide
2020- Trump- 48.84%
2024- Trump- 50.39%
There was very little change from 2020 to 2024. One county voted slightly less Trumpy and one voted slightly more Trumpy than the state as a whole did. All the other counties’ Trump’s percentage increased a bit less than it did statewide. I bring this up because Elon Musk spent a lot of time trying to persuade the Amish to vote for Trump. Writing for the Times of London, Tom Dunn, claims Musk was successful in his endeavor. Presumably most of his efforts were in Lancaster County, where the Trump vote increased by 0.54%, significantly less than the state’s 1.55%.
Historically, the political preferences of traditional horse-and-buggy Amish communities, lean toward conservatism. However, the Amish have maintained a tradition of separation from the “world,” including government and political involvement. Many Amish communities avoided voting altogether based on their religious beliefs about nonresistance and separation from secular society. Since the late 20th century, when some Amish began participating more in voting, they generally favored Republican candidates, a preference rooted in opposition to abortion, support for traditional family structures and a preference for smaller government and lower taxes. In the last couple decades some Amish communities have shown increasing engagement in politics. This was particularly evident in the 2016 and 2020 elections, where organized efforts like the Amish PAC encouraged Amish voters to support Señor Trumpanzee.
Dunn asserted that “only a fraction of them ever voted until this year, when Elon Musk set out to secure their votes for Donald Trump. Experts doubted he would succeed— all previous attempts to woo the Amish had produced no more than five per cent turnout— but interviews with members of the sect in their Pennsylvania homelands over three days showed that the efforts of the Tesla boss and Trump confidante surpassed all expectations. According to the community’s own estimates up to 60 per cent of the Amish in the state voted this year, and they all but unanimously backed Trump… ‘We used to just pray for a better president because that was our way,’ Amish poultry farmer Emmanuel Lantz said. ‘More and more now, we’re thinking you also have to act and go out and vote too.’”
Dunn was definitely writing as an English journalist, not as an historian. He ws. trying to be engaging and entertaining. Much of what he wrote was exaggerated and based on anecdotal evidence and incomplete or misinterpreted statistics. Still, though, a fun story.
Political campaigners have historically struggled to reach the Amish, who do not use television, radio or internet.
That is where Musk came in. His America super PAC spent $118 million to beat the Democrats’ superior ground operation across the seven swing states. The biggest chunk was used in Pennsylvania, where Musk also based himself.
The PAC helped build a database of Amish addresses, to where leaflets as well as voter registration forms were posted. Large billboards were also erected with messages specifically aimed at the community.
One, on the intersection of Route 741 and Rotherham Mill Road, asked: “Do you want to lose your freedoms and rights?” Below, it stated: “You can make a difference!!! Vote Republican!”
Musk also funded a vast election day effort to turn out the Amish vote. “We made sure we bring them to the polls,” he told Carlson. “They’re allowed to arrive in vans, as long as they’re not driving the vans.”
There were two other major factors: the community’s opposition to abortion and its views on gender.
Explaining his vote for Trump, Amish grandfather Levi Reihl, 76, said: “A lot of our people don’t want a woman president. I don’t have anything against women, but our Bible tells us that it’s men who should be in charge.”
Levi, who runs the Cozy coffee shop in Green Dragon Market on the outskirts of Ephrata, quoted verse from the books of Corinthians and Timothy to back his claim.
Serving coffee alongside him, Levi’s 18-year-old granddaughter Marion agreed: “I don’t think God made women to lead. Men are made to lead, that’s the way it is.”
Mike Miller, 47, who runs a nearby cake stand, described himself as “very happy with the result”, adding: “Without a doubt more people voted in this election. I would say 50 to 60 per cent voted in my circle this time. That is the figure I’ve also heard for other circles.”
It’s the turnout figure many Amish quote when asked. A straw poll by The Times of ten stall holders at Green Dragon Market found eight of them voted for Trump.
While voting is not forbidden for the Amish, it is considered a breach of their principles as they see themselves as members of God’s kingdom rather than man’s. This year, though, “the bishops were happy to stand back and let us do what we wanted,” Miller added.
Another strong indicator of the Amish surge is voter turnout in Lancaster County. While turnout was down by five percentage points across the US from the 2020 election, in the county— where almost one in ten people are Amish— it was up by three points.
It will take months for academics to establish an authoritative number of how many Amish did vote this year by painstakingly pouring through records. But if the community are right and six in ten did, it would align them with the national turnout average of 57.8 per cent.
So has the Amish voting dam now broken for good, as Republicans hope?
The presidential race has been extremely tight in Pennsylvania for a decade. Joe Biden took it from Trump by 80,000 votes out of seven million in 2020 and Trump flipped it back with a majority of just over 120,000 this year.
A reliable extra 50,000 Republican votes from the Amish could tip Pennsylvania from a toss up to leaning red. Representative Lloyd Smucker is the only Amish-born congressman and was re-elected last week for a fifth term in Pennsylvania’s 11th district, which includes Lancaster County.
He is convinced that is the trajectory. “We’re seeing a real change in the community and I think it’s going to continue going forward,” Smucker told Fox News. “The new generation are much more engaged politically.”
And as for the dairy farmer who pre-empted Musk’s success? He hopes for the opposite.
Speaking at his off-grid farm, Amos Miller said: “I hope we don’t have to vote again. Maybe Trump will change enough things so we don’t have to the next time.
“It was great news, but it is also a burden. It does not sit comfortably with us because we have to stay humble.”
Maybe it depends on what you consider Amish.
https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.36LH83J