Voters Are Unforgiving When It Comes To A Failed Presidency

According to a poll released by Pew yesterday, Republican voters are more likely than Democratic voters to say it "really matters" which party gains control of Congress in this fall’s midterms and 71% of Republicans plan to vote against Biden in the midterms, though he's obviously not on the ballot. And, unfortunately for Democrats, neither is Trump. In fact, at a press conference at the NATO summit yesterday, when asked about domestic politics, Biden said "I’d be very fortunate if I had that same man running against me." [in 2024]."

Trump probably feels the same way, although... looking at what the political/media establishment has decided is the Democratic bench, Trump might-- regardless of how weak Biden looks-- prefer someone else who's even weaken and more pathetic! Personally, I would love to vote for: Bernie or Elizabeth Warren or Jeff Merkley or any combination for those 3 senators. Or AOC. On the other hand... I haven't voted for a major party candidate since 2008 and I wouldn't be breaking that uncomfortable streak if Kamala, Hillary, Mayo Pete, Gina Raimondo or any other repulsive corporate whore is the nominee; instead I'll be looking for the best choices among the 3rd party protest candidates. Of those four, Raimondo is the worst but the other 3 are leagues away from anything I could conceivably even consider supporting.

I know I'm not a typical voter but, Mary, Mother of God, can't the Democratic Party do better than this kind of walking, stinking collection of garbage? Yes, it can-- Bernie, Elizabeth Warren, Jeff Merkley, AOC and-- compared to Raimondo and the 3 other nightmares-- dozens of House members. The April issue of Vanity Fair has a not all that serious piece by Chris Smith about what happens if Biden doesn't run, a pretty likely scenario.

"Maybe," wrote "Smith, "if Biden’s job approval numbers hadn’t started sinking in July, gone underwater in August, and plunged, by several counts, into the weak low 40s as the new year began. Perhaps if COVID cases and inflation hadn’t been trending in the opposite direction during that same stretch, the latter boosted in February by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And certainly if, when the next presidential campaign is in full swing, Biden was not going to be closing in on his 82nd birthday. 'I’m just going to be brutally honest about this,' says a national Democratic strategist. 'But I don’t think he’s physically up to being able to run again. I’m optimistic that by the summer of 2024 the country is going to be back to 95 percent normality-- and he’s going to have to run a vigorous, hard campaign that he didn’t in 2020. He’s not going to be able to stay in the basement.' So a behind-the-scenes Democratic conversation is becoming increasingly active and anxious: If Biden does not run, whether for political or personal reasons, what then? 'Plan B,' says Cornell Belcher, a pollster and adviser on both of Barack Obama’s successful runs for the White House, “is complete fucking chaos in the Democratic primary."

Betting on the incredibly unaccomplished and incredibly unpopular Kamala would probably win you the prognostication prize. But it won't win the Democrats the White House. "No sitting vice president who has publicly sought their party’s nomination has failed to get it, going back to Nixon."

But the awful political operatives from ObamaWorld who don't understand they've done the party and the country enough harm already by foisting Biden on us, are, according to Smith, now all hung-ho for Mayo Pete.

“The other active crowd in the party is the Obamanauts,” the national Democratic strategist says. “And they’re all about Buttigieg.”

“Pete?” a senior adviser to a second 2020 presidential candidate says. “He’s going to be running for president until he’s president. Or until he’s dead.”

Ideologically, though, Buttigieg, Biden’s secretary of transportation, occupies the same moderate lane as Harris. That’s valuable in a general election (see Biden, President Joe). But in a Democratic primary, it leaves a large opportunity for a staunchly progressive challenger.

The problem is who. Beyond Sanders, there is a precipitous drop-off in stature. Nina Turner? After serving as an Ohio state senator for six years, she’s lost two runs for bigger Ohio offices. Maybe a governor? “There are no truly progressive Democratic governors,” the national strategist says.

But there is an AOC. The second-term congresswoman from New York is charismatic, has a potent digital fundraising operation, and possesses enormous name recognition (you knew I was referring to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez without me even using her full name). Her age problem, though, is the opposite of Biden’s: She will turn 35, the minimum legal age to become president, less than one month before the 2024 election. A larger political problem is that AOC is as polarizing as she is magnetic. “The polling shows that the number one person the Republicans have vilified is Nancy Pelosi. Number two is AOC,” the 2020 top adviser says. “It’s super sexist and racist, obviously. But she’s a villain to a lot of people.

So we should give up on AOC because Republicans are afraid of her effectiveness and smear her? That's the establishment perspective. And people who make that argument should be aggressively not followed.

Right now I'm more worried that the Republicans are going to be successful in painting Biden as a wimp on Ukraine, too scared of Putin to do what it takes to protect "our side."