Virginia Polling Shows Neck & Neck Race...That Could Swing Blue Because Of A GOP Government Shutdown

The College of William and Mary in Virginia was founded in 1693 under a royal charter issued by King William III and Queen Mary II. It’s the second oldest college in the U.S. (Harvard was first, in 1636) and the 9th oldest in the English-speaking world (after Oxford, Cambridge and a bunch in Scotland and Ireland). Yesterday— 330 years old— they noted that their Center for Leadership and Media Studies’ polling operation found that though Virginians are nearly evenly divided in their preferences for the upcoming legislative elections,— 40% Dems and 37% Republicans— “among the subset of likely voters, 42% said they would like to see the Democrats in charge and 42% said they favor Republican control.

If there was a finding that should give Democrats hold for the November 7th election— with early voting in following right now— it’s that the survey shows that last year’s Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v Wade is a significant factor in the election, with 53% of those surveyed saying the abortion decision would be a major factor for them— 70% of Democrats and 35% of Republicans. Among independents, 54 percent said the abortion ruling was a major factor as they considered how to approach the Virginia midterms. 23% of respondents said abortion should be legal in all cases and 34% said it should be legal in most cases. Just 27% said abortion should be illegal in most cases and 8% said it should be illegal in all cases.

There’s another issue looming, one that Youngkin and his allies are trying to downplay— the Republican-egineered government shutdown, which is going to hit Virginia worse than any other state. Over 140,000 federal employees live in Virginia. Not counting the large military bases. The 2013 shutdown was blamed on Republicans by most Virginia voters and that helped Terry McAuliffe beat Ken Cuccinelli, 1,066,149 (48.0%) to 1,010,929 (45.5%). McAuliffe’s wins in Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties, where most of the federal employees live, and in the Norfolk area, which depends on the big naval base, propelled him to his narrow victory.

“A government shutdown, depriving Virginia families of paychecks as Republican lawmakers fight among themselves,” wrote Gregory Schneider last week, “would make Youngkin’s quest more difficult, said Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. ‘The MAGA Republicans in Washington are handing a gift to Virginia Democrats this year,’ he said. And Democrats on the campaign trail are wasting no time painting Republicans as extremists. A member of Virginia’s own congressional delegation has played a role in the stalemate, with Rep. Bob Good (R) saying over the summer that ‘we should not fear a government shutdown. Most of what we do up here is bad anyway.’”

“It’s our prayer they figure it out before it cuts too deep, particularly right here in the commonwealth,” state Sen. Lamont Bagby (D-Richmond), the head of the Virginia Legislative Black Caucus, said Thursday at a campaign event in Henrico County. But, he added, “Voters aren’t stupid. Virginians understand what’s at stake” and will vote accordingly.

“I don’t know why they would go and support a party that put them out of work,” Sen. Richard L. Saslaw (D-Fairfax) said in an interview. Sen. Scott A. Surovell (D-Fairfax) noted that fellow Sen. Aaron R. Rouse (D-Virginia Beach) carried a bill this year that would have provided a 30-day stay of eviction and foreclosure proceedings for residents who are furloughed by the federal government. The bill passed the Senate unanimously but was killed in a Republican-controlled House subcommittee.

U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) called Thursday for a resolution to the situation, noting that a brief shutdown in 2018-2019 caused 380,000 furloughs among government employees. “It’s unacceptable that there are some Republicans in the House who are willing to shut down the government if they don’t get everything they want. We need to come together to pass a bipartisan bill to fund the government past September 30,” Kaine said in a written statement.

One Democrat who is polling exceptionally well in for an open House seat in Loudoun County is Kannan Srinivasan. This morning he told me that “It’s becoming clear that we’re marching towards a government shutdown because extreme Republicans in Washington cannot govern. A government shutdown will severely impact many Virginians and create unnecessary hardships to thousands of hard-working families. It damages Virginia’s economy the most, will raise costs on families and it’s reckless. Keeping government running is a basic governance issue and it is appalling that extreme Republicans will put hard-working families at risk.”

This is just the kind of thing Srinivasan is talking about and why you might want to help him keep up his strong momentum by contributing to his campaign here.

Yesterday Hans Nichols reported that a shutdown forced by Republicans in Congress would make it a lot more difficult for Youngkin to swoop down at the last minute and save the GOP (and America) from Trump as “economic ripples through politically divided Virginia” lose the GOP control of the House of Delegates. “Virginia Republicans,” he wrote “are fretting about voters taking out their anger on the GOP in November's state elections if there's a shutdown. ‘North Virginia districts, a shutdown is just not helpful,’ said former U.S. Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA). ‘We saw that in the government shutdown in 2013— it killed Ken Cuccinelli,’ Davis said, referring to the GOP candidate for Virginia governor who lost by 2.6 percentage points that year. ‘Republicans in Congress are making it harder for Republicans in Virginia to win,’ said Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at University of Mary Washington. ‘Taking away someone's paycheck, even temporarily, is a major source of anxiety.’”

The Axios article, my friend Fergie Reid, reminded me this morning, "reads like a Youngkin P.R. damage control operation. They know that the, 'shutdown is bad for Virginia Republicans,' narrative has caught on, and if it proves true, as it appears will happen, it would be ruinous to Youngkin’s future political aspirations. All talk of a presidential bid should be considered worthless hype— pump & dump— in Wall Street parlance. To quote Carol King, ‘it’s too late baby’. His obvious early exit opportunity from the Virginia Governor’s mansion is the 2024 Virginia U.S. Senate race against Tim Kaine. Republicans have not yet recruited a top-tier candidate for this contest and would welcome Youngkin’s entry. However, if McCarthy and his right-wing 'kooky kaos kaucus' proceed with their Trump ordered shutdown plans, Youngkin and the Virginia Republicans are in deep do-do. Youngkin and his team are adept spinners and gaslighters. They will neatly apply glossy lipstick to their McCarthy-provided pig. But, it will still be a pig."

Former Lt. Governor, now Congressman Don Beyer (D-VA), whose district has the most federal employees: “If I were Glenn Youngkin, I'd be on the phone saying, 'Make a deal,' because it's really clear that this is a Republican shutdown. It'll be terrible, and terrible for them.” All Youngkin is saying “The state’s in good shape. We’ll be fine,” speaking as always for the wealthy, who can weather a few weeks or months of missed pay-checks.

Youngkin, who has had no problem in endorsing his preferred primary candidates in the past, is avoiding endorsing anyone in the presidential primary. On Tuesday, he shirked any sense of leadership when he told the audience at the Economic Club in DC that “I don’t expect to endorse anyone. I think voters should choose this, and I’m sure it will be a well-participated primary.” Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC, which has raised over $18 million (mostly from a few rich donors), spent liberally on 10 conservative legislative candidates against MAGAts, one example being in the 27th Senate district where Youngkin-endorsed conservative Tara Durant beat neo-fascist Trump enthusiast Matt Strickland. In other contentious primaries, Youngkin endorsed Emily Brewer against Hermie Sadler, Nikki Baldwin against Maria Martin, Bill Woolfe against Bill Ruffolo, Mark Earley Jr against Ryan Harter and Glenn Davis against Ron Jefferson.

The progressive state Senate candidate in the Norfolk-Virginia Beach area swing district, Victoria Luevanos seemed really exasperated with all these shutdown threats from the GOP. "Virginia is home to one of the largest military communities in the country and home small business Department of Defense contractors. I worked through the threat of a government shut down as active duty and as a DoD contractor. Seeing that once again the Republicans are putting families into dire situations should show how carelessly these politicians play with our livelihoods. Working families can't miss a rent payment, a bill payment, a childcare cost; they do not have guarantees they will get paid if the government shuts down. I'm beyond tired of rich career politicians holding working folks to the flame because they can't get their way… and when they have their hand forced they turn around and pat themselves on the shoulder on behalf of working people.”

A reminder, early voting for the November election is already in process. Please help Victoria and Kannan keep turning out voters by contributing to their campaigns here. And Jessica. Her Get-Out-The-Vote effort is through the roof. Early voters in her district (HD-71) are voting in greater proportions than anywhere else in Virginia. Let's help her keep that going! She is using the grassroots contributions to kick ass!