Virginia Had Its Primary Yesterday— The General Election Is In 4 Months

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Going into the yesterday's primaries, the ambitious Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin had a rubber stamp House of Delegates with 51 Republicans and 46 Democrats (+ 3 vacancies) and a Senate that has kept him from passing his extremist agenda— 22 Democrats and 17 Republicans (+ one Republican who doesn’t caucus with the party). The goal for the Democrats yesterday was to set up the expansion of their Senate majority with strong candidates and to also nominate strong candidates for the House so that they can win back control of that chamber. Another important Blue America goal was to defeat a handful of DINOs who often vote with the Republicans and replace them with progressives.

It went pretty well. Right-wing Democratic senators Joe Morrissey and Chap Petersen were defeated by more progressive candidates. Reactionary Creigh Deeds managed to hope on by the skin of his teeth (51-49% against a progressive challenger). The McPike-Guzman race is still too close to call. And it is good that Foy beat Ayala. On the House side, our Loudon County candidates Kannan Srinivasan won in a landslide (68-32%). And it's good that Amy Laufer beat that Kellen Squires character.

Yesterday, writing for Politico, Zach Montellaro described it as “a potential sea change with major implications for 2024. And it’s turning Virginia’s off-year elections into some of the most hotly contested races in the country. If Republicans achieve dominance, Youngkin could see his star rise even further. Youngkin, who hasn’t entirely closed the door on running for president, could use total control of the state legislature to pass a conservative agenda in a blue-leaning state… Youngkin has been raising millions of dollars into his PAC and cutting an early ad campaign in mid-May in battleground seats that pumped up his political agenda. He has been trying to mold the state Republican Party in his image, endorsing downballot candidates, with releases from his PAC pointedly noting that he has waded into 10 contested Republican nominations. Youngkin is undoubtedly exercising an unusual level of control because he sees his success this November as closely tied to his political future.”

For Democrats, this is a battle that goes far beyond just trying to stymie a would-be presidential hopeful. It is about reclaiming control in a blue state— and the potency of abortion as an issue to motivate their voters to get to the polls.

Earlier this year, Democrat Aaron Rouse flipped a state Senate seat in a special election in a race that attracted an unusual amount of attention from both pro-abortion rights and anti-abortion groups. A nonprofit affiliated with the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the party’s primary arm for downballot races, has already released ads on abortion access in Virginia.

“The threat to Virginians is if Glenn Youngkin wins two chambers and has a trifecta,” said Swecker. “It’s only thanks to Virginia Democrats that we are the only state in the south without an abortion ban.

Youngkin has backed a proposed ban on abortion after 15 weeks, which the Democratic-controlled Senate rejected.

…But first, both parties must navigate a tricky primary season on new maps. This is the first election since the pandemic-era census redrew maps in Virginia. Ultimately, the state Supreme Court stepped in and appointed special masters to draw the lines. Both parties believe they have viable paths to a majority in each chamber— but the court-drawn maps were made without regard to where incumbents lived, and this primary could remake state politics.

Over a third of the state House is calling it quits or running for another office, and at least a quarter of the upper chamber is retiring, according to an analysis from the Virginia Mercury. And many of the senators that remain are facing primary challenges.

Yesterday, Nick Tagliaferro, a dyed-in-the-wool progressive, went through the important races for Primary School. He started with two very reactionary DINOs, Creigh Deeds in the Charlottesville area and Joe Morrissey in the Richmond suburbs, both trying to hold onto their seats despite new districts that are far less backward than the two that put them in the legislature. “Deeds, wrote Tagliaferro, “was first elected to a rural, Appalachian state house district along the border with West Virginia in 1991… Deeds has represented a similar district ever since, but has never fully left behind the [conservative] rural politician mindset that made him a successful politician in a district that, had it existed in 2020, would have given Donald Trump 68% of the vote. When Deeds ran for Attorney General in 2005, he leaned into his opposition to gun control, even running to the right of his GOP opponent, Bob McDonnell, on the issue; he received the NRA’s endorsement, which he said was "a reflection of my record in the General Assembly,". When he ran for governor in 2009, his strategy was to reach out to rural voters while keeping Barack Obama and the national Democratic Party at arm’s length, even running an ad focused on his opposition to cap-and-trade, as well as coming quite close to opposing what would eventually become the ACA.”

Sounds bad? It didn’t end there. Tagliaferro reports that Deeds “once ran a campaign ad declaring “NO SPECIAL RIGHTS FOR GAYS” [and] was also consistent on opposing gay marriage during that campaign, pointing to his vote, breaking with the majority of his party, to enshrine one man-one woman in the state constitution.” A notorious corporate whore, he also voted to allow private prisons, to give tax credits to the coal industry, to end parole in the state and to keep Big Ag from undergoing even minor environmental regulations. Worse yet is that he’s a puppet of the ultimate bad guy in Virginia politics: Dominion Energy. Clean Virginia PAC has targeted Deeds’ as one of the most important primaries in the state. They’re supporting progressive Delegate Sally Hudson, Deeds’ top tier opponent. Tagliaferro: “Instead of waiting for Deeds to retire, she’s decided to make her move now, with Deeds’s base (ie where he actually lives) out of the district and him buying a new house to even be able to run. [Clean Virginia PAC] has dropped over $220,000 on Sally Hudson, allowing her to come close to the massive financial advantage that Deeds has built up… Hudson has been fearless about pressing Deeds on his gun votes in ads, mailers, and even a website cataloging his votes opposing gun control. She’s called out his carpetbagging, too, and implied that he won’t stand up to party leaders, but the gun issue is the one that’s sticking…Hudson is running a great campaign and Deeds is sweating, but the power of inertia in Virginia politics is immense. He managed to narrowly retain the nomination.

In SD-13 (Richmond suburbs and Petersburg) Lashrecse Aird challenged Joe Morrissey-- and beat him. And though the actual Morrissey is an old friend of mine, I’m going to ignore all of Tagliaferro’s song references. He reminds his readers that Morrissey was disbarred in 2001 after a series of convictions for contempt of court, assault, and bribery. He managed to get his law license back in 2011, “but that all came crashing down in 2013, when he was charged with multiple counts of child endangerment and one count of child pornography, after it was discovered he was sleeping with his 17 year old legal assistant, and had sent naked pictures of her to his friends. Under pressure from state Democrats, he resigned his seat. Then, incredibly, he won, from jail, and running as an independent, the special election for the vacancy he had caused, and managed to stay in the House. Somehow, that did not kill his career prospects, and he filed to run for Senate. It was only after he filed that election officials realized he didn’t live in his Delegate district, and he was ejected from the body, again. As for the Senate race, he’d started something he couldn’t finish, and dropped out of it shortly thereafter… He ran for mayor in 2016, and, even though he lost, managed to clearly win the Black vote. In 2018, he was disbarred a second time both for impregnating a teenaged employee, and for other assorted corrupt actions he’s engaged in after getting his law license back… [He] managed to stage a comeback in 2019, defeating an incumbent Democratic state senator in the primary, finally getting himself to the state Senate, where he serves today. Basically every Democratic politician involved in state politics has endorsed ex-Del. Lashrecse Aird in this race. She’s outspent him by a margin of more than 2:1. This is an election making national headlines as a bellwether for how the Democratic Party nationally, and Virginia as a state is going to be handling abortion because Joe Morrissey won’t fully back off from calling himself “pro-life.”

There’s also a Senate primary where Blue America has endorsed a candidate: SD-29 (southern and eastern Prince William County, northern Stafford County), where we’ve endorsed progressive Delegate Elizabeth Guzmán against incumbent corporate whore Jeremy McPike. He outspent her 2 to 1 but as of today, the race is too close to call.

Blue America also backed progressive challenger Heidi Drauschak against 75 year old conservative corporate shill Dave Marsden in central Fairfax County. She attacked him for “blocking paid family leave and taking money from Dominion. She has the money to make those attacks thanks to an enormous investment from Clean VA of nearly $600,000. Marsden won; hopefully Heidi will be back next time.

In another central Fairfax district, another terrible DINO, Chap Petersen, was challenged by someone trying to hold him accountable, in this case Saddam Salim. Petersen is a NRA-Democrat who votes with the Republicans far too often. Salim beat him.

Primary School’s analysis of the Delegates races-- and other key Virginia races-- can be found here. And one last think... please click here to contribute to the Blue America-endorsed candidates who now proceed to the general election.