Many people are saying Trump lost his mind over the weekend; many. The only people who disagree are those who think he lost his mind a long ago. I’m just reporting what everyone’s saying. But there were those posts on his make-believe Twitter page on Saturday. They were pretty dark, pretty crazed. It seems like he's very, very frightened about something-- probably Jack Smith, the special prosecutor who is likely to send him to prison. Looks like ole Trump didn’t want to sleep in:
Twenty minutes later, he was back, screeching about his former attorney, Michael Cohen:
Another 20 minutes and he’s ranting and raving about “Marxist Maniacs,” Rudy Giuliani and “the Laptop From Hell.”
He waited ’til after 8:30 for the next one— but put it nearly all in caps, presumably to indicate he was screaming or howling. “THE REPUBLICAN PARTY HAS NOT BEEN SMART & TOUGH.”
So is it a mental breakdown in real time? I wouldn’t discount it and I doubt Trump reads David Corn’s newsletter but… the stuff Corn wrote about over the weekend… that’s stuff Trump must be hearing even if from other sources. “It is fashionable these days,” wrote Corn, “for pundits to guffaw about Trump’s declining influence within the GOP. In polls asking Republican voters to state their preference for next year, DeSantis often beats the former guy, occasionally by a hefty margin. Last month, Trump, who in November announced his third White House bid, hit record lows for his approval rating among all voters (31 percent) and GOP voters (70 percent). Axios noted, ‘A raft of new polls shows former President Trump is losing juice among core Republican voters— a rare but unmistakable drop in base support that would jeopardize his 2024 comeback bid.’ Trump’s own supporters and allies mocked and scorned him for his grifty NFT trading card venture. (Fortune reported this week, ‘The trading volume of Donald Trump’s Digital Trading Cards, which feature images of the former president dressed as a superhero and as an astronaut, has fallen off a cliff, according to data from CryptoSlam.’) Trump is ‘fading fast,’ former GOP House Speaker Paul Ryan told CNN on Thursday. ‘He is a proven loser.’ Yes, Rep. Kevin McCarthy fulsomely hailed Trump for helping him (barely) prevail in the chaotic House speakership contest. Even with that, the conventional wisdom is that Trump is trending in the wrong direction. With a touch of glee, New York Times columnist Charles Blow observed days ago, ‘Donald Trump is essentially being put out to pasture’ by the GOP. Yes, but. And this is the but: Trump remains dangerous. To the nation, to the GOP, and to DeSantis and other potential Republican rivals. That is because, as January 6 demonstrated, if Trump cannot be king, he will burn down the palace— with everyone in it, especially those who denied him the crown.”
No matter what the polls say now, DeSantis or any other GOP aspirant who enters the race against Trump will have a tough time. Hitting below the belt is what Trump does best. He is not bound by rules or decency. He demonstrated this during the 2016 GOP sweepstakes. Conventional politicians were no match for his mean-spiritedness and constant streams of lies. One by one, he bested the pipsqueaks, several of whom had been touted as powerhouse candidates of depth, intelligence, and talent. (Jeb!) None of them could figure out how to compete against a scoundrel who refused to follow political conventions (as low as they might be). And then there were none.
…Trump will do whatever it takes to destroy DeSantis. He will approach him as an existential threat and fire away. Again and again and again. He will make up stories about DeSantis. He will hurl horrible and baseless claims at him. He will go for blood.
Trump will force DeSantis— or any other opponent— into the gutter. And this is the problem for his rivals: Trump likes being in the gutter. He wears it well. That’s a talent, and it’s not possessed by many politicians— or people. My father used to tell me: Never get in a fight with a skunk; you both end up stinking, but the skunk likes it.
Can DeSantis withstand such a pummeling? Can he wrestle with a skunk without becoming too malodorous? The polls pitting Trump against DeSantis are worthless until the Trump treatment begins. Who knows how Republican primary voters— the base— will react to such an ugly face-off? Will they be moved by Trump’s accusations (whatever they may be) about DeSantis? Given Trump supporters’ endless and bottomless credulity regarding his claims about himself, his political opponents, and just about everything, it’s probable that a sizable bloc of Trumpish voters will buy his bunk and join his jihad against DeSantis or any other GOP foe. Of course, the dynamics of the race will be shaped by how many GOP candidates sign up for this spectacle. If other credible contenders beside DeSantis show up for this free-for-all, the we’ve-had-enough-of-Trump vote will be divided.
But let’s assume the pre-season reviews that depict DeSantis as a dynamo candidate pan out. Say he finds a way to dance around Trump’s assaults and escapes being damaged or tarnished. Say Republican voters dump Trump for this new anti-woke, libs-trolling, immigrant-kidnapping prince of the right. That will be when DeSantis’ troubles will really start.
Does anyone believe Trump will abide primary contest results that cast him as a loser? He will claim once again that he is the victim of a rigged system. He will challenge tallies. He will denounce the RINO establishment and blame the Deep State, the media, and who knows who else. He will accuse DeSantis of conspiring with dark and nefarious forces. He will not recognize DeSantis as the legitimate GOP nominee. Trump will send a message to his voters: You cannot support this man and his party: not with votes, not with money. Some will shrug and move on. But millions of Republican voters will fall for Trump’s latest con.
As I’ve written many times, Trump is motivated by spite. In public talks and speeches Trump gave in the years before he ran for president, he hailed retribution as an essential element of success. His top advice for people who wanted to succeed was this: “Get even with people. If they screw you, screw them back 10 times as hard. I really believe it.”
The point about how many non-trumps jump in and splitting the nazi votes is salient. Abbott of fucking TX comes to mind. But mtg worries me more.
There are a few others who clearly have the ambition.
The money, however, will probably coalesce behind desantis. they'll see him as a devoted fascist. How many others take a swing depends on how much money they can extract. Even trump will be constrained by a lack of free-flowing money.
neither party will be bounded by mental illness, retardation nor criminality. Not in several decades, anyway. trump is a career criminal who, ironically, is only now being looked at even a little. He did not spend one single day in office where…