Trump Buyers' Remorse Is Growing And Isn't Ever Going To Turn Around

People Won't Be Fooled If The GOP Steals Their Medicaid

There will always be some people who believe in the good fairy or Santa Claus. There are even people who believe the earth is flat or hollow or that RFK Jr knows something about public health policy. And long before he’s dead and gone— let it be before the end of the week (if not the day)— there will still be people who believe in Donald Trump. Although it doesn’t rule it out, believing in nonsense isn't a sign of stupidity— it's often the result of deeply human impulses: the desire for meaning, safety, identity and certainty. The scary part is how easy it is to manipulate those impulses in a media landscape where spectacle beats substance and fear sells better than facts. We can start with conspiracy theories and confirmation bias— people seeking out information that confirms what they already believe and ignore contradictory evidence. And in times of uncertainty or crisis— pretty much always— people gravitate toward simple explanations that give them a sense of understanding and control. 

Think of someone like Marjorie Traitor Greene for a moment. Grand narratives— even conspiratorial ones— are psychologically comforting because they suggest that someone, somewhere, is in charge. Furthermore, beliefs often serve as identity markers. If your group believes RFK Jr. is a truth-teller or that vaccines are evil, then adopting those beliefs is a way to signal loyalty and belonging. Once people are in a belief-based "tribe," contradicting the group's worldview can feel like an existential threat— so they double down instead. I think by now, we all know that social media platforms are engineered to maximize engagement, not truth. The result: wild, emotionally charged content spreads faster and farther than careful, evidence-based information. Someone like RFK Jr. capitalizes on public confusion or disillusionment. They often mix just enough truth with fantasy to sound plausible— especially to folks without the background to separate fact from garbage.

Yesterday, Ben Leonard wrote that Señor Trumpanzyy’s top pollster, Tony Fabrizio, found that most people who voted for Trump oppose potential moves from congressional Republicans to cut Medicaid funding. “Two-thirds of swing voters also said they disapproved of slashing the safety-net health program as part of the GOP’s larger effort to pass a party-line package of tax cuts, beefed up border security and increased defense spending... ‘There’s really not a political appetite out there to go after Medicaid to pay for tax cuts,’ said Bob Ward, partner with Fabrizio Ward, in an interview. ‘Medicaid has touched so many families that people have made up their minds about what they don’t want to see cut.’”

House Republicans in particular are weighing substantial changes to Medicaid to help meet an $880 billion savings target as part of the filibuster-skirting reconciliation process. Democrats cite data from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office to argue that savings to reach that lofty goal would need to come from Medicaid, the state-federal health insurance program on which more than 75 million low-income Americans rely.

The polling of 1,000 registered voters between March 20 and March 24 suggests that Democrats’ messaging on the issue— which has centered around accusations that the GOP is raiding health care for poor people to finance tax cuts for the wealthy— could be effective in swaying key constituencies. The polling was conducted on behalf of the Modern Medicaid Alliance, of which groups representing insurers, patients, doctors and hospitals are members.

The survey results also could provide ammunition to the handful of Republicans across both chambers of Congress who remain skeptical about the House Energy and Commerce Committee’s ability to find spending cuts in programs under its jurisdiction without gutting Medicaid.

Trump has promised repeatedly not to sign a bill containing a “cut to Medicaid benefits”— most recently in a direct pledge to Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO), who needed those assurances to vote for the Senate budget resolution last week. Republicans are also considering energy and tech policy moves that could yield substantial savings.

There’s talk, too, of reducing the federal share of payments for states that have expanded Medicaid through the Affordable Care Act— a way to recoup savings without kicking the neediest recipients off the program. Democrats contend it will still result in cuts to Medicaid benefits, as states could respond to the changes by reducing services or raising taxes.

And then there’s discussion about rooting out waste, fraud and abuse in the Medicaid system to cut costs, but it’s not clear how much money that would actually save.

“I think you’d find support for getting rid of waste and fraud,” Ward said. “But the whole idea that we’re going to take away people’s health insurance and that’s not going to be a political problem for us, I don’t know where that comes from.”

Well... at least there’ll be a 4 mile long, $92 million military parade on June 14 to enjoy weeks before Trump’s 79th birthday— unless God does us all a favor and ends his miserable life before then.