Tom Suozzi's Big Win-- And Why They Should Make Him Chair Of The DCCC

Also-- Big Democratic Win In Bucks County

Winner

Last night there were two important special elections— the race to replace George Santos (R) on Long Island and the Lower Bucks County state House race to replace George Galloway (D). Both are swing districts and the Democrats won both— decisively. Pennsbury School Board member and former Falls Township Supervisor Jim Prokopiak (D) beat Republican Candace Cabanas in a two-to-one landslide. The last time the GOP fielded an opponent to Galloway was 2020, when he beat Republican Jeanne McGee 59.99% to 40.01%.

Prokopiak was the sixth Democrat to win a special election since the start of the latest legislative session just over a year ago. His win cemented the Democrats’ narrow hold on the state House. When the race began, the House was tied 101-101. But on Friday, Republican state Rep. Joe Adams (Pike and Wayne counties) resigned. So after Prokopiak’s win last night, the Democrats’ majority went to 102-100. This may augur well for Ashley Ehasz’s campaign to replace Bucks County Republican Brian Fitzpatrick in November.

Nationally, the Long Island election was much more closely followed. We’ve been covering it at DWT intensely. All of the polls— no exceptions— predicted a Suozzi win, but not a single one came close to the magnitude of that win. Even Trump was paying attention. On his fake-Twitter platform he blamed the loss on Pilip— who he called “this very foolish woman”— refusal to embrace the MAGA cult. 

While Pilip distanced herself from Trump, refusing over and over to even say if she had voted for him, Suozzi also distanced himself from Biden. Even though Biden beat Trump in 2020 by 8 points in the district, his popularity in Nassau has since cratered. With Suozzi back in the House, MAGA Mike will be able to afford only two defections on any full attendance vote in the 219-213 House... just as long as none of the Blue Dogs cross the aisle and vote with the Republicans.

I’m perfectly happy to see Suozzi’s win as a continuation of the Democrats’ off-year election winning streak, which is how much of teh media is painting it today. But that doesn’t really tell the story of what happened yesterday. It’s actually more simple: candidates matter and so does how they campaign. Beyond the historical imperative that says the party whose member was forced from office in a scandal loses the replacement election, Suozzi— a former mayor, County Executive and congressman— was the perfect candidate for the Democrats, even if barely palatable to progressives. Pilip, on the other hand, was picked by the Nassau County machine out of nowhere, speaks English very poorly and has virtually no comprehension of the issues facing the voters— beyond Israel, Israel, Israel. And if Democrats of all stripes rallied around Suozzi, MAGAts-- if Trump and Santos are to be believed-- boycotted Pilip and sat on their hands. I suspect most MAGAts have no idea where Ethiopia is on a map or what an Ethiopian Israeli Orthodox Jewish Democrat who refused to sing Trump’s praises was even doing as their candidate.

The Nassau County machine is supposed to be one of the most efficient left in the country, but even for them, this was a bridge too far. They tried to run the campaign themselves and keep Pilip out of the public view and away from any interviewers other than GOP shills. It backfired and Suozzi raked in all the endorsements, with several newspapers going out of their way to note that not only was he an excellent choice but that she would be unfit to serve in Congress. 

Having watched the campaign closely, day by day, I noticed that Suozzi and his team ran a better campaign than almost any Democrat I have seen do in years. I don’t agree with many of his positions on issues but he knew how to appeal to a winning coalition that had just given Republican Lee Zeldan a 12 point margin of victory against incumbent Kathy Hochul, like Suozzi a conservative Dem but, unlike Suozzi, an incompetent campaigner. Suozzi made every right decision and impressed an electorate that feels negatively about the Democratic Party. In fact, a poll 2 weeks ago showed that a generic Democrat in the district would lose to a generic Republican! Instead, Queens went from D+4 in 2022 to D+24 yesterday and we woke up to this today: