Trump never decides to “go” negative. Trump is negative. His vicious, deceitful campaign, primarily based on projecting his own shortcomings on his opponents, is what his cult followers are buying. I’m betting that when the Kamala-Tim campaign decided to start running negative ads against Trump, there was way too much soul-searching and possibly event garment rending. But the next 4 weeks the airwaves in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada are going to be filled with ads just hammering Trump, Vance and Project 2025. Monica Alba, Jonathan Allen, Peter Nicholas and Yamiche Alcindor noted it’s “a new phase aimed at trying to move the small number of undecided voters her way. The change is driven, in part, by internal campaign data showing that sharper messaging against Trump could persuade some still-unsure Americans to support Harris, according to three of the campaign officials. The effort is set to include new ads and harsher language on the campaign trail that highlights Trump’s past actions and rhetoric that Harris officials hope will tip these voters away from backing the former president.”
“We are going to draw more contrasts everywhere we can,” Harris campaign co-chair Cedric Richmond said in an interview. Given Trump’s own rhetoric in the campaign, Richmond added, “I don’t think there’s any expectation that you criticize him with kid gloves.”
Leaning more heavily into negative campaigning is a strategic shift for Harris. While she has routinely been critical of Trump since becoming a candidate in July, and before that as President Joe Biden’s running mate, much of her campaign’s focus has been on defining her and explaining her record to voters.
Harris campaign officials said they intend to continue laying out her policy positions, background and plans if she were to win the presidency — and increasing negative messaging is oftentimes a natural evolution in a presidential campaign as the candidates make their closing arguments.
But emphasizing what Harris campaign officials view as Trump’s major vulnerabilities is seen as possibly one of the only ways to finally win over some voters who haven’t made up their mind in a static race that Democrats want to push in their direction.
…The campaign specifically cited internal research demonstrating that “showing that Trump is unstable in contrast to Harris” is “the most effective message for target voters” they are trying to reach and persuade in the closing stretch.
And on Friday in a campaign speech at the Redford Township Fire Department in Detroit, Harris tore into Trump as no friend of union workers.
“Donald Trump’s track record is a disaster for working people,” Harris said. “He’s trying to gaslight people all over our country, but we know the facts and we know the truth. He is an existential threat to America’s labor movement.”
This is worth thinking about in comparison to a memo from Way To Win, which is a Democratic PAC that doesn’t coordinate with Kamala’s campaign and which has a different strategy for the battleground states. They’ve been running over a million dollars worth of ads, “rooted in personal stories, highlight the stakes of the 2024 election and forge strong emotional connections with critical demographics. Way to Win’s chief strategy officer, Jenifer Ancona, wrote that “We launched this campaign to amplify the voices of everyday Americans demanding fairness, equality, and opportunity for all. Vice President Harris embodies that vision— protecting freedoms and defending our rights. As voters face a crucial choice between progress or the divisive policies of Donald Trump, this campaign highlights the power of each person to shape the future. Early testing shows the ads drive significant shifts in voter attitudes, boost Kamala Harris’s favorability, reduce Donald Trump’s standing, and increase voter turnout. The campaign reaches key voter groups in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, particularly focusing on Latinos, AAPI communities, young voters, and non-voters from 2020. By focusing on critical issues like healthcare, economic security, and civil rights, the personal stories in the ads inspire voters to act, tapping into shared experiences and pressing concerns. This approach goes beyond traditional messaging, creating a heightened sense of urgency and forging deeper emotional connections with voters.”
She asserted that Shifts among key voter groups— especially Latinos, AAPI communities, and younger voters— demonstrate growing alignment with Kamala Harris’s vision for progress and equality. A clear boost in Harris’s favorability, alongside a decline in Trump’s standing, signals meaningful changes in voter dynamics. These trends suggest a shift that could heavily influence the 2024 election, particularly among groups that have been historically disengaged... This focus on personal storytelling not only drives voter engagement but also underscores the broader economic choices at stake this November.”
Their research shows that the ads boost Kamala’s favorability and lower Trump’s and increase her potential voters’ motivation to show up at the polls. Their research shows that this ad, running in Arizona, “shifted the horse race in Harris’s favor by +1.9%, increased Trump’s unfavorability by +1.6%, particularly among Spanish-speaking men (+2.3%) [and increased] Harris’ favorability by 3%, making it the best-performing ad for favorability increase.”
This one, aimed at Latino voters in Nevada, performed best among 2020 non-voters who speak Spanish (+9.0%), moderate Spanish speakers (+7.9%), and 35-49-year-old Spanish speakers (+7.3%). The ad moved likely Spanish-speaking voters by +5.9% in our direction for the horse race and increased VP Harris’s favorability by the same amount.
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