The State of the State

by Thomas Neuburger

Can those who sold the public that Biden was “sharp as a tack” go back and undo the damage of last week’s awful debate? Let's look at that question in two ways.

First, if Biden stays in the race — which he has said he will do, a course which his family is urging — can he recover his standing and win?

Second, can the non-Right Wing press, which for years has been telling us Biden is exactly as sharp as he needs to be, ever convince us they’ll tell us the truth again? In service of their non-journalistic goal — keeping Trump out of office — have they ruined their ability to fulfill their journalistic goal, reporting the facts?

Both of those questions matter. Let's look at them dispassionately, and one at a time.

What's Happening to Joe Biden?

Before we answer those questions, though, let's consider Biden's status. I've been reading widely the past few days, including many non-practitioners who have consulted professionals about Biden's condition.

It's possible that he's just getting old. That can't be discounted.

Nonetheless, he's exhibiting some strong and telling Parkinson's symptoms — loss of automatic movements, like swinging your arms as you walk (yes, that's automatic); characteristic changes in speech; and especially the classic Parkinson's “poker face” (rigid expression) that essentially freezes the muscles from time to time. This is the blank look that was so shocking to viewers during split-screen parts of the debate. If you want to judge for yourself, watch his hands and his arms when he moves. They're almost always rigid.

And before think we’re diagnosing unfairly, let's say that, thanks to these visible symptoms, most doctors agree that Parkinson's can be diagnosed “from afar.” (See the first paragraph of this paper from PubMed, but know this not the only source for that assertion.)

His prognosis? If the problem is Parkinson's, he can only decline. But unlike advancing dementia, where the light just goes out, Parkinson's has been liked to a flickering on-and-off bulb, with interspersed times of lucidity with times of a blankness inside. You’ll see him go in and out, at least for a while.

Alex Thompson at Axios has reported that his family and very close staff keep him out of the eye of even the residence staff — the butlers, the maids — when he's having a bad day, and his working and visiting hours are restricted to all. (See interviews here and here for more of Thompson's reporting.)

Expect this to to get worse, slowly or rapidly, if this diagnosis is right. He may survive until 2029, but he won't be in charge.

With that painful thought in mind, let's look at our questions.

Can Biden Recover and Win?

Can Biden still win the election? It's looking doubtful at the moment, but anything could happen. The bigger question may be, will he succumb to the mounting pressure to drop out?

Over the weekend I expected Democratic Party insiders and wranglers to bring the press and big donors back into line after their universal initial freak out.

That didn't happen:

And a weekend DNC conference call with officials and donors didn't go well at all:

DNC Chairman Jaime Harrison and Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez held a Saturday afternoon call with dozens of committee members across the country, a group of some of the most influential members of the party. They largely ignored Biden's weak showing Thursday night or the avalanche of criticism that followed. Multiple committee members on the call, most granted anonymity to talk about the private discussion, described feeling like they were being gaslighted — that they were being asked to ignore the dire nature of the party’s predicament. The call, they said, may have worsened a widespread sense of panic among elected officials, donors and other stakeholders. [emphasis added]

On the other side stands Biden's family, especially wife Jill and son Hunter. NY Mag:

Jill Biden has always been one of her husband’s fiercest defenders, so he should probably be seeking advice from more objective sources, too. But instead, the other main voice in his ear right now is his son Hunter[.]

Another reason to think Biden will stay is his stubbornness. Sam Stein, who's dispassionate reporting has been excellent, writes “the defining feature of Joe Biden is that he’s stubborn.” Also, behind the scenes, Biden’s easy to anger. According to the NY Times: “Let’s talk plain English here, he will often snap.” He's not your lovable uncle all the time.

So this one’s up in the air.

The deciding vote may be ultimately come from the Party. Are their chances better with Biden or someone else? Even if Biden leaves now, it’s a massive lift to get someone else tanned and ready, someone whom voters and insiders, consultants and lobbyists, are willing to back.

Especially if that person is not Kamala Harris, who can't be shunted aside without setting off mines.

Again: If the argument is “Anyone other than Trump,” you can make that argument with Biden or Buttigieg. You could make it with a ham sandwich, as much as some people hate Trump. Keeping Biden means keeping the D train on track.

Not a weak argument.

Can the Press Recover Its Reputation for Honesty?

This is a separate question, but it's wrapped in the first. There are any number of mashups showing press certainty that the Party messaging that Biden is sharp was honest. The most striking is from Morning Joe, where days before the debate, the host shamed and excoriated anyone who asserted the opposite. But he wasn't alone. Many have joined, repeating the Party line. (The best assembly of those damning clips is here.)

Some of these commentators were no doubt deceived, believing their Party contacts. But others just lied. But regardless the reason, the 180-degree reversal of those messages were a shock to the public. What can they now believe? And who?

It may take a while for media to recover its reputation, if they do at all. (See here for my thoughts on that.) I've found individual reporters quite sound — again, Sam Stein and Alex Thompson stand taller than most — but mostly, they’re just court stenographers, birds in the flock.

On their reliability, though, depend Democrats' chances, with Biden or someone new. Will voters who listen to news (not all of them do) believe the next happy talk message to come to them through the tubes? Or will they vote their disgust (you know what that means), or just walk away?

I have a suggestion for them if they want to recover the sway they once held with voters. Don't lie about Biden going forward, even if he's the nominee. Admit the truth: What we've been seeing for years ... is what's actually there.

Take the hit. Apologize. Then, if you still want to advocate for Biden against Trump, hold your head high and say it.

I know a great many people who, if the presidential choice was Trump or pastrami-on-rye, would put the pastrami in office without two seconds’ thought.

There’s some logic in that. Embrace it.