The Most Important Primaries Are The Ones That Will Yield The Most Consequential Members Of Congress

Not More Garden Variety Backbenchers

Imagine for a moment that Saikat Chakrabarti somehow beats Nancy Pelosi and becomes the Representative for San Francisco— just the way AOC shocked the political world by coming out of nowhere (with Chakrabarti as her campaign manager) to beat Pelosi’s designated successor, Joe Crowley. The race had been discounted entirely. No one thought there was any chance she would win but after she did— because of her quality as a political leader— it went from being, in retrospect, nothing race to the most consequential congressional election of the year. Pundits never— like I mean never, never, never— take into account candidate quality. It’s too… well, subjective. So even if it’s the most important factor in the long run, it’s never considered in the short run. If Saikat gets into Congress, he'll make a difference, a good difference.

So, on Friday, when Max Cohen, decided to pick which primaries “actually matter” for 2026, he certainly never considered Chakrabarti vs Pelosi. His criteria for “most consequential” was that they be competitive Democratic primaries emerging in battleground seats where the majority will be won or lost. This is just about that— not about, for example, how the DCCC has a long sordid history of recruiting and helping elect putrid candidates in Blue Wave cycles, only see see them wiped out in a red wave. Because putrid is, after all, putrid. Think back to the 2006 Blue Wave cycle. The Democrats netted 31 seats and Pelosi replaced Denny Hastert as Speaker. Republican-lite candidates like Heath Shuler (NC), Brad Ellsworth (IN), Baron Hill (IN), Mike Arcuri (NY), Tim Mahoney (FL), Harry Mitchell (AZ), Zack Space (OH), Nick Lampson (TX), Nancy Boyda (KS), Chris Carney (PA), and Jason Altmire (PA) all won election (as did 21 others), only to be defeated in 2010, 2012 and 2014. The Democrats repeated the scenario in 2018, gaining 41 seats, including GOP-lite members like Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL), Donna Shalala (FL), Abby Finkenauer (IA), Cindy Axne (IA), Kendra Horn (OK), Ben McAdams (UT), Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ), Max Rose (NY), Anthony Brindisi (NY), TJ Cox (CA), Gil Cisneros (CA), Harley Rouda (CA), Joe Cunningham (SC), Jeff Van Drew (NJ), many of whom were defeated in 2020 and 2022.

“In a growing number of seats represented by vulnerable House Republicans, multiple legitimate Democratic contenders are vying for the chance to advance to the general election. These crowded primaries aren’t inherently negative, with the glut of candidates revealing how many Democratic contenders are optimistic that 2026 may be a boon year for the party thanks to President Donald Trump.” Cohen wrote that “messy intra-party contests do have the potential to derail Democratic efforts to flip the House. And no candidate wants to spend precious money before the general election. Just take the example of Arizona’s 1st District in 2024. The top four candidates were separated by just five percentage points in the Democratic primary. The tight margins and crowded field meant Democrats weren’t left with their strongest candidate to take down Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ), who won reelection. But a bitter primary in Oregon’s 5th District between Democrats Janelle Bynum and Jamie McLeod-Skinner didn’t stop Bynum from knocking off a GOP incumbent in 2024.”

Colorado’s 8th District, currently represented by Rep. Gabe Evans (R-CO): State Rep. Manny Rutinel, who raised an impressive $1.1 million in Q1, is facing off against former Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-CO). Caraveo lost to Evans in November.

California’s 40th District, represented by Rep. Young Kim (R-CA): Art gallery owner Esther Kim Varet, who raised $1 million in Q1, is running alongside former school board member Christina Gagnier.

New York’s 17th District, Rep. Mike Lawler’s (R-NY) seat: Local legislator Beth Davidson, veteran Cait Conley, former television reporter Mike Sacks and nonprofit executive Jessica Reinmann are all vying for a chance to unseat Lawler.

New Jersey’s 7th District, represented by Rep. Tom Kean (R-NJ): Businessman Brian Varela, local politician Greg Vartan, former SBA leader Michael Roth and Navy veteran Rebecca Bennett are all running.

Wisconsin’s 3rd District, represented by Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI): The 2024 Democratic candidate Rebecca Cooke will face off against Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge. Cooke posted a $1 million first quarter.

Arizona’s 1st District, represented by Schweikert: 2024 candidate Amish Shah is running again, alongside his 2024 primary opponent Marlene Galán-Woods and entrepreneur Jonathan Treble.

Michigan’s 10th District, in the seat that will be vacated by Rep. John James’ (R-MI.) gubernatorial run: Former Pontiac, Mich. Mayor Tim Greimel is facing off against former prosecutor Christina Hines.

California’s 22nd District, represented by Rep. David Valadao (R-CA): Former state Rep. Rudy Salas, who ran against Valadao in the last two cycles, has filed to run again but hasn’t done much campaigning. Randy Villegas, a local school board trustee, is also running. Local reporting has suggested Democrats are also trying to recruit Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains to run.

DCCC is trying to recruit a proven conservative. of course

California’s 41st District, represented by Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA): Former OneRepublic bassist Tim Myers launched his bid for the seat on Thursday, joining a crowded list of lesser-known candidates vying to take on Calvert. Will Rollins, who raised tons of cash in two unsuccessful runs against Calvert, isn’t running again.

But not a word about which candidates are progressive, like Randy Villegas, and which are conservative, like Jasmeet Bains, both in CA-22. And not even a reminder that 2 or the 3 in AZ-01, Amish Shah and Marlene Galán-Wood, are Republicans playing at being Democrats.