Republicans Prepare For The Loss Of Their Super-Majorities
The newest North Carolina poll from Morning Consult shows Kamala beating Señor T by 2 points. But the latest Mark Robinson scandal hadn’t really made it into the news cycle. Despite calm water’s in the gubernatorial race, that same poll already showed Robinson down by 13 points against Josh Stein. Once Trump’s political team was unable to persuade Robinson to drop out, Trump decided to just ignore him.
On Saturday, Trump, hoping to put distance between himself and the scandal-ridden Lt. Governor, pointedly did not invite Robinson to the MAGA rally in Wilmington and he was nowhere to be seen. Nor did Trump mention his name or refer to him. Last MAGA rally in North Carolina was in Asheville, where Trump brought him onstage. Same at a rally in Greensboro, where Trump called him “Martin Luther King on steroids.”
On Friday, a trio of NY Times writers reported that when the GOP took over North Carolina in 2013, Republicans “engaged in gerrymandering that ensured the party a near-lock on the state legislature and lopsided control of the state’s House delegation in Congress. They paved the way for a conservative state Supreme Court that upheld a strict voter ID law. And after gaining a veto-proof majority last year, they banned most abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy.” Their hopes to take the governorship and completely control the state government next year was dashed when they let Trump pick a sociopath, Robinson, as the gubernatorial candidate.
“Long before this week,” Richard Fausset, Eduardo Medina and Michael Wines wrote, “when CNN reported that Robinson had called himself a ‘black NAZI!,’ discussed his pornography habits and praised slavery in an adult online forum, the bellicose Republican nominee for governor (and current lieutenant governor) was polling poorly against his Democratic rival, Josh Stein. But now more than ever, Robinson, with his antisemitic and anti-gay rhetoric and performative, polarizing brand of politics, is sending waves of anxiety through the state party.
Former Gov. Pat McCrory, the Republican who was narrowly voted out in 2016, said on Friday that Robinson was a threat to the many gains that Republicans have made in the state. ‘He is the most effective populist and the most dangerous populist I’ve ever encountered,’ McCrory said in an interview.”
McCrory isn’t the only North Carolina Republican worrying about the down-ticket damage Robinson will be responsible for. “Dallas Woodhouse, a former head of the state Republican Party, said on Friday that the party could conceivably lose the slim legislative supermajorities that have recently allowed it to override vetoes from Gov. Roy Cooper.” Most think that between lunatic fringe Michele Morrow, on the ballot as the GOP candidate for public schools superintendent, and Robinson, many swing voters are going to be turned off to Republicans in general. “Paul Schumaker, a veteran Republican strategist, had sounded the alarm earlier this year on Robinson, saying his toxic brand of politics would be detrimental to the ticket… Though Robinson’s bid may end up blowing up his party’s well-laid plans for governance, a number of conservatives say that his clinching of the nomination may have been inevitable given the Trumpist passions that continue to ignite the Republican base in North Carolina and beyond.”
But it isn’t just the candidacies of Robinson and Morrow that look like they’ll be ignited in November. Other Republicans who look like they will be adversely impacted by the scandal and by swing voters realizing how extreme the GOP has become include, besides Trump himself, Attorney General candidate Dan Bishop, currently a far right member of the House Freedom Caucus, Lt. Gov. candidate Hal Weatherman, Luke Farley Labor Commissioner candidate, Secretary of State candidate Chad Brown, State Treasurer candidate Brad Briner, Dave Boliek, candidate for state Auditor and enough legislators to deprive the Republicans of the super-majorities in the General Assembly. The Republicans who look like Robinson’s stench is going to harm their campaigns include 2 state Senate incumbents, Lisa Barnes in Nash, Franklin and Vance counties and Michael Lee in New Hanover County plus two Republicans who were looking good in open seats… and now look like losers— Ashlee Adams in Granville and Wake counties and Stacie McGinn in Mecklenburg County. Also the GOP challenge to Democrat incumbent Lisa Grafstein in Wake by Scott Lassiter just went in smoke.
There are at least 9 House races that look like Robinson is causing great joy for Democrats. Swing district freshman Frank Sossamon looks like he’s now the underdog to Democrat Bryan Cohn (Vance County and party of Granville). Same with Ken Fontenot (Wilson County + part of Nash) who may lose to Dane Pittman; swing district incumbent freshman Allen Chesser, who’s going to lose to Lorenza Wilkins (Nash County) and GOP incumbent Erin Paré (Wake Co.) who now looks like a loser to Safiyah Jackson. Probably the most watched state House seat, though, is in Mecklenburg County, where conservative former Democrat Tricia Cotham contracted COVID, wound up with a rotted brain and switched to the GOP, giving them the vote they needed to ban abortions. She appeared to be headed for victory but the Robinson factor is going to give the seat to Nicole Sidman.
Two open seat contests just swung away from the GOP with Melinda Bales looking like a loser to Beth Helfrich (Mecklenburg Co) and Mike Schietzelt circling the drain to Wake County where Evonne Hopkins will win the seat. Two Democratic incumbents targeted by the GOP, Lindsey Prather (Buncombe Co) and Diamond Staton Williams (Cabarrus Co.) both look safe now Ruth Smith and Jonathan Almond go down with Robinson and Morrow.
The congressional districts are so egregiously gerrymandered that not even a Robinson-sized scandal blizzard will impact most of them. Then exception in NC-01 in the northeast corner of the state, where the GOP was targeting Republican-lite fake Democrat Don Davis with MAGA nut Laurie Buckhout. Davis is no longer in trouble and will win reelection.
Uh we are supposed to be a democracy. We are hanging on by a thread as lunatics have taken over so much of government. This election is so critical. Frightening as hell.