The Margin In The House Is Going To Be Very Tight— Tight Enough To Prevent MAGA Mike From Governing

Dysfunctional Congress + Fascist White House Isn't Good

As of today, 218 Republican and 212 Democrats have been elected to the House with 5 seats left unfilled. 218 is what the GOP needs to elect a Speaker. They’ve got it… sort of. Matt Gaetz has already resigned (although it’s unclear if he’s resigned from the 119th Congress or just the 118th Congress; no one seems to have the definitive answer). 

Elise Stefanik (R-NY) and Mike Waltz (R-FL) are leaving to join the cabinet, so their two red seats will have to wait for special elections. Kathy Hochul won’t rush a special election in the North Country district but, presumably, DeSantis will speed the process along as fast as he can for the two empty seats in his state.

But let’s imagine all 3 seats aren’t filled. That leaves us at a 215-215 impasse. As more votes in ca-45 have been counted, it has become more and more certain that Democratic challenger Derek Tran is going to oust Republican incumbent Michelle Steel. As of last night he led by 314 votes.

Democratic incumbent Marcy Kaptur is still ahead— by a thread— in Ohio’s 9th district, gerrymandered to defeat her last cycle. The GOP messed that up in 2022 but nominating a neo-Nazi. This time they nominated a standard, garden variety Republican putz, Derek Merrin, and as more votes have been counted, he’s gotten closer. As of this last night, Kaptur was leading by 630 votes, but this morning 6,300 ballots, presumably from Lucas County, were reported counted and she got the bulk of them, bringing her margin to 2,568 votes.

UPDATE: Race called an hour ago for Marcy!!

In California’s Central Valley, last year’s closest contest is being replayed… but will be even closer! The seat was open then and Republican John Duarte beat corrupt conservative Assemblyman Adam Gray in the “safe” blue district. Gray is closing the gap and as of last night, Duarte’s lede is down from around 1,500 to just 227 votes. This is the closest it’s been since counting began.

In Iowa’s first district, it’s another rematch between Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks, the incumbent, and Christina Bohannan. The numbers haven’t moved in 2 weeks with Miller-Meeks ahead by 801 votes in a purple but red-leaning district:

And that leaves Alaska’s at-large seat with far right Nick Begich hoping to displace Blue Dog co-chair Mary Peltola, so worthless that she refused to even say publicly whether she would vote for Kamala or Trump. Begich has been significantly ahead but as votes have come in from blue-leaning rural areas, the gap has tightened slightly. This is a ranked choice state, so it’s hard to predict who will come out ahead. My guess is that the real Republican will beat the Republican-lite. He's ahead by 7,568votes right now.

The final tally is going to be be between 218 for the Republicans and 217 for the Democrats— which could turn into a temporary and awkward 217 for the Democrats and 215 for the Republicans— or 223 for the Republicans and 212 for the Democrats. It will be somewhere in between.

If I had to guess, a foolish endeavor at this moment, I’d call Alaska and Iowa for the GOP and the two California seats and Ohio for the Dems. That would mean 220 Republican seats and 215 Democrats and— with Gaetz, Stefanik and Waltz missing— 217 to 215 for MAGA Mike. If Marjorie Traitor Greene and Lauren Boebert get in a knife fight (or gun fight; they’re both armed) and kill each other, it would mean an exact, albeit temporary, tie.