I’ve been looking at the voter turnout numbers for the 2024 election. Overall, participation was down from the 2020 presidential election but still statistically very high compared to the dozen other recent presidential elections, the average of which is 57.8%:
2020- 66.6% (Biden v Trump)
2024- 63.9% (Trump v Harris)
2008- 61.6% (Obama v McCain)
2016- 60.1% (Trump v Hillary)
2004- 60.1% (Bush v Kerry)
2012- 58.6% (Obama v Romney)
1992- 58.1% (Clinton v Bush)
1984- 55.2% (Reagan v Mondale)
1976- 54.8% (Carter v Ford)
2000- 54.2% (Bush v Gore)
1980- 54.2% (Reagan v Carter)
1988- 52.8% (Bush v Dukakis)
1996- 51.7% (Clinton v Dole)
It amazes me how stark the difference is from high turnout states like Wisconsin (76.93%) and Minnesota (76.35%) to low turnout states like Hawaii (50.27%) and Oklahoma (53.28%). Past studies by the Pew Research Center and the Brennan Center for Justice consistently suggest several reasons why some states vote more robustly than others. First of all, some states encourage voting and some actually discourage voting. Of the 13 high turnout states, 11 have same day registration, 4 have all-mail elections and 3 have both same day registration and all mail elections:
States with automatic voter registration, same-day registration or less restrictive registration deadlines tend to have higher turnout. States with stringent voter ID laws, such as Oklahoma, experience lower turnout, especially because these laws disproportionately affect marginalized groups. Among the 10 states with the lowest 2024 voter participation, 7 have laws designed to discourage voting: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas, Mississippi, Indiana and Alabama. All 7 are Republican states and the only one that isn’t a single-party authoritarian state would be— and just barely— Texas. All 7 are brutal racist states and have electoral systems designed to discourage minority voters.
You’ll notice that states with vigorous vote-by-mail systems or accessible early voting options— Colorado, Oregon, Washington and Vermont— always see higher turnout than the states that have designed voting systems to discourage working class voter participation. Factors like the number of polling places, wait times, and proximity to voters also influence turnout. Texas and Mississippi are good examples, where there is a high ratio of voters per polling place, particularly in urban areas and minority communities. In 2020, Harris County (Houston) had only 122 polling places for over 4.7 million residents. In Mississippi’s rural Black Belt polling places are difficult to access, with limited public transportation options. Polling place consolidation in Black areas have further exacerbated the problem. In Florida, wealthier, predominantly white areas tend to have more polling places with shorter wait times, while poorer and minority areas face long lines and fewer locations. Even in a high turnout state like Wisconsin, urban centers— Milwaukee— have faced polling place closures, resulting in long wait times, while suburban areas are less affected.
Different states have different political cultures. Minnesota and Wisconsin, for example, have long histories of high civic engagement and political participation, rooted in cultural and community norms. Most obvious this year was how higher turnout was apparent in the battleground states where both campaigns advertised incessantly and have costly get-out-the-vote ground games. In these states voters perceive their votes as having a greater impact, which motivates participation. Conversely, in solidly red or blue states like Oklahoma or Hawaii, voters feel their vote carries less weight. This cycle’s battlegrounds:
Wisconsin- 76.9%
Michigan- 74.6%
Pennsylvania- 71.4%
North Carolina- 70.3%
Georgia- 68.3%
Nevada- 65.8%
Arizona- 63.6%
States with better-educated populations and states with less economic inequality generally see higher turnout. Economic hardship creates barriers to voting (lack of transportation and inflexible work schedules), especially when Republican legislatures have worked to exacerbate those barriers.
Now notice the charge in turnout rates in the states. Very few saw higher rates in 2024 than in 2020, exceptions being battleground states, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Now let me recommend that you watch this video from Democracy Watch that helps explain how the North Carolina Republican legislature is going beyond just discouraging voter participation. Keep in mind that this year 2,723,667 North Carolinians (51.2%) voted for Democrats in state legislative races while just 2,526,571 (47.5%) voted for Republicans. And yet, in those racially gerrymandered districts, 71 Republicans were elected and just 49 Democrats were.
Comments