The Democrats Have A Very Serious Florida Problem— And That's 30 Electoral Votes

Recently the Florida Republican Party was in everyone’s face about how they were celebrating reaching a goal— a million more registered voters than the Democrats. And you can see that on the chart below. But you may notice something else on the chart as well. Their share of registered voters hasn’t grown much since 2020. Democrats and independents didn’t switch to the GOP. In fact they have around 100,000 fewer registered voters than they did in 2020. The entire Democratic deficit is explained by Democrats dropped from the voters rolls.

I asked a top Florida elected official how that’s possible. His response was chilling. “The Republicans control the entire machinery of government, including law enforcement and the court system.”

Since 2000, Florida has had a history of aggressively purging voter rolls, often justified under the guise of maintaining voter list accuracy. However, these purges— under Jeb Bush, Charlie Crist, Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis— disproportionately affected minority and low-income voters, who are more likely to move frequently or have inconsistencies in their registration information. Since these groups tend to lean Democratic, the purges resulted in a significant drop in Democratic voter registrations without necessarily increasing Republican numbers.

For instance, purges targeting voters who haven't participated in recent elections remove people who may have been planning to vote in the next cycle. Additionally, mistakes in purging can lead to the wrongful removal of eligible voters, further skewing the registration numbers. The timing and criteria for these purges often lack transparency, raising serious concerns about their fairness.

Florida implemented several voting restrictions in recent years, such as limiting mail-in voting, reducing the availability of drop boxes and imposing stricter ID requirements. These measures, while often framed as anti-fraud initiatives, have had a chilling effect on voter registration and turnout, particularly among groups that face barriers to accessing the necessary documentation or voting locations.

A notable example is Florida’s law requiring felons to pay all fines and fees before regaining their voting rights— a policy that effectively disenfranchises many who would otherwise be eligible to register. That was meant to disproportionately impact African Americans, who tend to vote Democratic.

With Republicans holding control over Florida's executive, legislative and judicial branches, they have significant influence over the rules and administration of elections. This has led to policies and practices that both subtly and overtly favoring the GOP. For example, gerrymandering and redistricting efforts can not only affect election outcomes but also discourage voter registration by making some districts less competitive.

The consolidation of power also allows for the implementation of policies that limit voter outreach and education efforts that could boost registration among underrepresented groups. Moreover, with law enforcement and the courts under GOP control, challenges to these policies are, for all practical purposes, impossible.

Until recently, Florida was a critical swing state, but the manipulation of voter registration trends had national repercussions. The Republican dominance over the state's election machinery has set a dangerous precedent, where access to voting is increasingly determined by partisan interests, making a farce of the democratic process by reducing competition and disenfranchising large segments of the population.