Next Time They Do, They'll Lose New Jersey
New Jersey, with a D+6 PVI, has been a safe state for Democrats running for president for 3 decades. The state has 12 congressional districts. I’ve listed them here by PVI, bluest first, reddest last (by PVI), along with the percentage of votes Trump won in 2020 and in 2024. It's enlightening, especially since some Democrats are entertaining the idea of Kamala Harris running in 2028:
NJ-10 (D+30)- LaMonica McIver (Donald Payne died)
Trump 2020- 18.6%
Trump 2024- 23.7%
NJ-08 (D+22)- Rob Menendez
Trump 2020- 26.8%
Trump 2024- 36.5%
NJ-12 (D+12)- Bonnie Watson Coleman
Trump 2020- 32.1%
Trump 2024- 36.6%
NJ-01 (D+10)- Donald Norcross
Trump 2020- 37.1%
Trump 2024- 39.7%
NJ-06 (D+8)- Frank Pallone
Trump 2020- 39.7%
Trump 2024- 45.3%
NJ-09 (D+8)- Nellie Pou (Bill Pascrell died)
Trump 2020- 40.0%
Trump 2024- 49.0%
NJ-11 (D+6)- Mikie Sherrill
Trump 2020- 39.7%
Trump 2024- 44.5%
NJ-03 (D+5)- Herb Conaway (Andy Kim was elected senator)
Trump 2020- 42.3%
Trump 2024- 44.9%
NJ-05 (D+4)- Josh Gottheimer
Trump 2020- 43.2%
Trump 2024- 48.1%
NJ-07 (R+1)- Tom Kean
Trump 2020- 47.3%
Trump 2024- 49.4%
NJ-02 (R+5)- Jeff Van Drew
Trump 2020- 51.8%
Trump 2024- 55.4%
NJ-04 (R+14)- Chris Smith
Trump 2020- 60.6%
Trump 2024- 64.2%
Statewide, Trump increased his New Jersey vote significantly from 2020 to 2024— from 1,883,313 (41.4%) to 1,968,215 (46.1%). But more interesting is that he increased his vote in every single congressional district, from the reddest to the bluest, as you can see above.
Let’s look at a totally different metric, how well Kamala did compared to the Democratic congressional candidates in each district. The districts are in the same order— bluest to reddest. You’ll notice that in the 9th district— Secaucus, Lodi, Passaic, Clifton, Paterson, Wayne, Rutherford— Pou managed to replace Pascrell (by about 5 points) while Trump flipped the district red and beat Kamala 1.1 points.
NJ-10
Biden 2020- 80.6%
Kamala- 74.4%
McIver- 74.3%
NJ-08
Biden 2020- 72.1%
Kamala- 60.6%
Menendez- 58.9%
NJ-12
Biden 2020- 66.6%
Watson-Coleman- 61.1%
Kamala- 60.3%
NJ-01
Biden 2020- 61.5%
Kamala- 58.4%
Norcross- 57.8%
NJ-06
Biden 2020- 59.0%
Palone- 56.0%
Kamala- 51.7%
NJ-09
Biden 2020- 58.9%
Pou- 50.7%
Kamala- 47.9%
NJ-11
Biden 2020- 57.8%
Sherrill- 56.5%
Kamala- 53.2%
NJ-03
Biden 2020- 56.3%
Kamala- 53.2%
Conaway- 53.2%
NJ-05
Biden 2020- 55.6%
Gottheimer- 54.5%
Kamala- 49.6%
NJ-07
Biden 2020- 51.1%
Kamala- 48.2%
Altman- 46.3%
NJ-02
Biden 2020- 46.9%
Kamala- 42.9%
Salerno- 41.2%
NJ-04
Biden 2020- 38.1%
Kamala- 34.1%
Jenkins- 31.6%
Also worth noting is that Biden’s performance in 2020 was better than Kamala’s and better than the 2024 Democratic congressional candidates in every district. You can see why Republicans are excited about the open seat gubernatorial election this year.
Statewide, Kamala beat Trump 52.0% to 46.1% and Democratic Senate candidate Andy Kim beat Republican Curtis Bashaw 53.6% to 44.0%. New Jersey has 21 counties and Kim beat Harris in 14 of them and they tied in 4.
Bergen
Andy Kim- 53%
Kamala Harris- 51%
Middlesex
Andy Kim- 55%
Kamala Harris- 53%
Monmouth
Andy Kim- 44%
Kamala Harris- 43%
Ocean
Andy Kim- 35%
Kamala Harris- 31%
Essex
Andy Kim- 72%
Kamala Harris- 72%
Morris
Andy Kim- 48%
Kamala Harris- 48%
Camden
Andy Kim- 65%
Kamala Harris- 63%
Union
Andy Kim- 62%
Kamala Harris- 61%
Hudson
Andy Kim- 65%
Kamala Harris- 63%
Burlington
Andy Kim- 61%
Kamala Harris- 58%
Passaic
Andy Kim- 49%
Kamala Harris- 47%
Somerset
Andy Kim- 56%
Kamala Harris- 56%
Gloucester
Andy Kim- 50.2%
Kamala Harris- 48%
Mercer
Andy Kim- 68%
Kamala Harris- 66%
Atlantic
Andy Kim- 48.2%
Kamala Harris- 48%
Sussex
Andy Kim- 36%
Kamala Harris- 37%
Hunterdon
Andy Kim- 45%
Kamala Harris- 46%
Warren
Andy Kim- 39%
Kamala Harris- 39%
Cumberland
Andy Kim- 48.2%
Kamala Harris- 48%
Cape May
Andy Kim- 39%
Kamala Harris- 40%
Salem
Andy Kim- 41%
Kamala Harris- 40%
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