Problem: Republicans Aren't Normal
Katie Porter’s message to her followers this morning was about political corruption, which, she explained can be either covert or right out in the open. She used three articles from Politico about lobbyists buying off MAGA Mike to prove her point:
“There are too many corporate PACs who are still sort of reluctant to” donate to members viewed as too close to former President Donald Trump, regardless of whether they voted to certify the election or not, one lobbyist said. Now, “I’m sure there are people all over D.C. who are looking around saying, ‘Wow, we need to revise the criteria that we’re using to give.’”
“Looking at his PAC and overall cash raised, I’d say he doesn’t have a huge network in DC,” “But obviously, that’s all about to change.”
Before the vote was final, one Republican on K Street said they were about to start calls to plan one of Johnson’s first fundraisers as speaker. “That reminds me, I need to get a date on the books,” the person said, noting the expectation of other firms to hold events for Johnson soon. The goal was to host it as early as next week, the person said. It would be the “easiest hundred grand,” said the lobbyist, a former House GOP leadership aide who said they were offering advice on staffing to Johnson’s office.
This weekend, though, most of the MAGA Mike coverage isn’t about his corruption, which will fly under the radar for a while… maybe until Harlan Crow funnels a million dollars into his leadership PAC. This weekend was mostly dedicated to looking at MAGA Mike the religionist fanatic. In his 9 Takeaways From Mike Johnson’s First Interview as Speaker (with Hannity), Luke Broadwater concentrated on how “his personal worldview and policy positions are dictated by the Bible” but that he isn’t planning on imposing them on the country. Anyone want to buy a bridge?
He said that he disagrees with the Supreme Courts’ decision legalizing same sex marriage but that he doesn’t plan to use his position in the House to overturn it. “They changed the definition of marriage that had been regarded by basically every human society for 5,000 years, but when five justices on the Supreme Court changed it, that became the law of the land. I’m a constitutional law attorney. I respect that, and we move forward.”
Broadwater added that “In fact. Johnson tried just last year to prevent the enactment of legislation to codify same-sex marriage protections at the federal level. He was one of 169 House Republicans who voted against that bill, but it cleared Congress with broad bipartisan support and became law. Similarly he grudgingly acknowledged that women’s choice should be determined on a state level, not by the federal government.
Earlier, Alice Ollstein and Meredith Hill had written how abortion will be one of MAGA Mike’s first big tests as speaker— “his ability to resolve an intense intra-GOP fight. A majority of the House Republican conference backs a provision in the food and agriculture funding bill that would ban mail delivery of abortion pills nationwide, with some hard-liners even pledging to oppose any version without it. But a handful of Republican centrists who face tough reelection bids next year say federal curbs on mifepristone, a widely used abortion pill, are ‘a non-starter.’ The impasse threatens to derail Johnson’s pledge to pass all 12 government spending bills while avoiding a shutdown. Government funding is set to run out in mid-November. ‘If mifepristone stays in the bill it’s dead. If mifepristone comes out it’s dead,’ said Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-ND). ‘So, until we solve that problem, we can’t get to the next one.’ Johnson told Republicans he wants the agriculture bill on the floor by the week of Nov. 13— giving the new speaker little time to broker a compromise between his most vulnerable moderate members and his fellow staunch social conservatives. How Johnson proceeds over the next three weeks will provide one of the first looks at how he plans to navigate the pitfalls that ensnared his predecessor and whether he plans to make good on his promises to protect the at-risk Republicans who helped the GOP clinch its narrow majority.”
Or… stand by the majority of his hateful conference and stick with the values that got him to where he is. As Harry Enten reported for CNN today, MAGA Mike is well within the mainstream of today’s GOP. “Johnson,” wrote Enten, “is most certainly well to the right of the median American voter. But he is actually fairly close to the center of a Republican Party that has shifted further right in recent years.” Normal Americans, for example, understand that Biden won in 2020, but brainwashed Fox viewers and Hate Talk radio listeners— like most Republicans (60%) and like MAGA Mike— believe Trump won. Also, like MAGA Mike, 70% of Republicans believe that the criminal charges Trump faces over his failed attempts to overturn the 2020 election are not relevant to his fitness to serve another term.
[W]e can’t forget that a clear majority of House Republicans (139 of them, including Johnson) voted against certifying 2020 election results from at least one state. Their votes were outside the mainstream among all House members but not within the House Republican Conference.
The same is true for an amicus brief that Johnson led supporting an effort to get the Supreme Court to overturn the 2020 election results in four Biden-won states. Most House members didn’t sign. A majority of House Republican members (126) did.
The fact is, whether you like it or not, arguing that Biden was the rightful winner of the 2020 election is the minority point of view among Republicans today.
Johnson has also faced criticism for his position on abortion. He co-sponsored a bill to prohibit abortions once a fetal heartbeat is detected, usually around six weeks.
A May Gallup poll found that 59% of Americans were opposed to such legislation, with 37% in favor. This lines up with the pro-abortion rights side winning every abortion-related ballot measure since Roe v. Wade was overturned last year, including in several red states.
But take a look at what that same poll found among Republicans: A majority (61%) wanted abortion banned after six weeks. Johnson, again, is within the mainstream of his party.
Legislatively, most Southern states have enacted bans on abortion at six weeks or even earlier.
…Johnson has voted with the Republican majority 94% of the time this Congress. That almost matches the median House Republican member (93%).
So what we’ll be looking for isn’t so much if MAGA Mike will be representing the American people— he never has and he won’t start now—but if he will be trying to protect the 2 dozen swing district Republicans fighting for the political lives, a big part of the speaker’s job… if he wants to keep a Republican majority after the 2024 elections. There was an ominous hint in that Hannity interview. While seriously vulnerable New York Republicans are spearheading a bid to expel George Santos from Congress, MAGA Mike told Hannity that he opposes theit resolution. “We have a four-seat majority in the House. It is possible that that number may be reduced even more in the coming weeks and months, and so we’ll have what may be the most razor-thin majority in the history of the Congress. We have no margin for error… He’s not convicted. He’s charged. And so if we’re going to expel people from Congress, just because they’re charged with a crime or accused, that’s a problem.” That will make reelection even harder for Nick LaLota, Anthony D'Esposito, Mike Lawler, Andrew Garbarino, Brandon Williams (enough to hand the Democrats the majority) and, over in neighboring New Jersey, Tom Kean and even Jeff Van Drew.
And the GOP civil war raging in the House isn’t just about kicking out Santos. This morning Jordain Carney reported that Gaetz “is openly sparring with multiple members, including taking aim at a key committee chair.” He outed Missouri closet case Jason Smith. It gets worse (for Johnson, not for Jason Smith). “A handful of conservatives are already signaling that they’re going to spur part two of a centrist vs. hardliner shutdown fight. Johnson will now have to deal with the kind of nasty infighting that McCarthy couldn’t control, and the looming Nov. 17 shutdown deadline will test how he navigates a longstanding fight between his party’s two factions. Johnson wants to pass a short-term spending patch until January or April to buy more time for Republicans to pass each of their full-year funding bills, but he’s already getting hard resistance from a handful of right flank members. Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ), a member of the Freedom Caucus, said there are likely at least five Republicans who couldn’t support a short-term spending bill into January. With Republicans’ four-seat majority, that would be enough to require Johnson to get support from Democrats— a complaint that doomed McCarthy.”
Comments