The Chance Of Trump Being Impeached A Third Time In 2027 Is Extremely Strong— And Xi Knows It

"Market Summary" by Nancy Ohanian

Trump’s personal popularity has been plunging since “Liberation Day” (down to -8.5)— as is consumer sentiment (which went from anxious to petrified. His fumbling and bungled economic stewardship has upended the bond market, the bedrock of the financial system, as well as the U.S. dollar and the mortgage market. “[T]he Treasury market’s erratic behavior all week has raised fears that investors are turning against U.S. assets as Trump’s trade war escalates. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which underpins corporate and consumer borrowing and is arguably the most important interest rate in the world, rose roughly 0.1 percentage points on Friday. The rise added to sharp moves throughout the week that have taken the yield on the 10-year Treasury from less than 4 percent at the end of last week to around 4.5 percent.”

I don’t know if Xi Jinping is as senile as Trump— he’s turning 72 in June just as Trump turns 79— but if he is, he has much better, more competent advisors around him than Trump does. There’s no doubt that they’re watching with glee as Trump accomplishes for them what they couldn’t do themselves— undermining America’s status as the ultimate world power.

On Friday, before Trump surrendered the next day, Dave Lawler wrote about how Xi is fighting back against the Trump’s lame and self-defeating attempts to bully China, “with no shortage of pressure points to ensure Americans feel the pain.” It goes beyond the 125% tariff on American goods coming into China, in response to Trump’s petulant 145% tariff on Chinese goods coming into the U.S. China is America’s 3rd-largest export market after Mexico and Canada. “China's factories produce the vast majority of the toys, cell phones and many other products Americans buy. From fast fashion to gaming consoles, things will get more expensive… [A] long-term trade war could arguably pile more political pressure on Trump than on him. Any American whose livelihood depends on selling into the Chinese market is likely panicking right now— whether the product in question is oil, airplanes or soybeans (three of the top U.S. exports)… The inability to compete in China will damage or doom a broad range of U.S. companies if the trade war drags on.” Trump doesn’t have what it would take to stand up to the political pressure and will give in, the same way he did on Saturday when it comes to electronics, further beclowning himself.

“China added twelve U.S. firms to an export control list this week— restricting what they can ship out of China— and added six defense tech and aviation firms to an ‘unreliable entity list’ that bans them from doing business in China. Beijing also announced an antitrust investigation into chemicals giant DuPont. That follows previous announcements of probes into other blue-chip American companies like Google and Nvidia… China last week further restricted exports of rare earths— a sector it dominates— in response to Trump's tariffs. The Trump administration is scrambling to source minerals from elsewhere. But for now, the U.S. is heavily reliant on China for key inputs for products ranging from semiconductors to missiles to wind turbines. Banning the export of certain rare earths outright could cripple production in critical industries.”

Lawler added that the "nuclear option" would be dumping the $761 billion in U.S. bonds held by Beijing. Most economists doubt Xi would pull that lever given the risks to the Chinese and global economies, but even having that capability gives him leverage… China is a key market for U.S. films, sports leagues, and other entertainment products, and Beijing hasn't been shy abou using that leverage to influence what public figures say or what appears on screen.”

Because of Trump’s decision to try to bully the whole world, he now has no allies in his trade war with China. Even (former) American allies are rooting he loses and is humiliated. CNN reported that “After three months of insulting, tariffing and even threatening to annex some of its best allies, the Trump administration suddenly needs some help. The US President has now escalated a full-on trade clash with China that he doesn’t seem to know how to win. So the administration is rushing to work out how to build leverage against Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is in no mood to cede to Trump’s bullying. But there’s one thing that might work. It would bring to bear America’s strength and global power and could perhaps build pressure on Beijing to act on consistent US complaints about market access, theft of intellectual property, industrial espionage and other issues. There’s only one problem: This approach would conflict with Trump’s ‘America first’ mantra.”

Trump has alienated the EU, Japan, South Korea, India, Vietnam, Canada, Mexico and most of the rest of the world. “The question now,” wrote Stephen Collinson, “is whether Trump has so alienated America’s friends that they won’t take his calls.”

Or, as Holman Jenkins put it for the Wall Street Journal, Trump wants to be impeached again. He he isn’t joking— at least not about Trump being impeached again. “Trump blinked. The unwinding is still just beginning. It will be painful and tumultuous. A grief-filled fight lies ahead over whether his trade actions have even been legal and constitutional. Many slips between cup and lip are to be expected. China and the U.S. are rushing toward an unplanned total stoppage of trade. The bond market is signaling a potentially dangerous combustion with America’s unaddressed fiscal-sustainability challenge.”

So far, Trump has been impeached twice— first in 2019 for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, and the second in 2021 for incitement of insurrection. If you take into consideration his current, rapidly collapsing political status, his cascading legal challenges, congressional dynamics and public sentiment, the chances he will be impeached a third time are strong and growing. The Democrats are extremely likely to take over the House in 2026 and they'll be looking towards impeaching him in 2027— especially if his policies keep failing, his popularity keeps sinking and a recession is raging.