If Kamala wins, as looks likely, and the Democrats take control of the House— also likely— the Senate could well be the spanner in the works. The Democrats gave up Manchin’s West Virginia Senate seat by backing a light-weight corporate candidate with no chance of coming close to winning… and no ability to even put up a fight. Funny to see that Schumer hasn’t changed one iota since high school.
So that leave a 50-50 Senate with Walz as the tie-breaker— unless the Democrats lose another seat, Montana being the most likely, but Ohio also being in the Republicans’ crosshairs. Both Democratic incumbents have proven they know how to win in hostile territory and polling shows Sherrod Brown ahead and Jon Tester… struggling. But Tester has always struggled and his races are always close. I wouldn’t write him off. I wouldn’t write either of them off.
Democrats are counting on split-ticket voting in red and purple states, where non-MAGA Republicans may hold their noses and vote for Trump but then give their votes to familiar Senate incumbents rather than the self-funding odd-balls the GOP has in place in, not just in Montana and Ohio, but also in Wisconsin Pennsylvania and Nevada. And then there’s Arizona, where Ruben Gallego is up against an extremist lunatic the voters already rejected when she ran for governor.
Katie Edmondson reported over the weekend that policy-wise Kari Lake is just like Señor T. She’s also a “bombastic” asshole like he is— and like him got famous on the boob-tube and has refused to concede her defeat in 2022. “But,” wrote Edmondson, there is a vast distance between them in the polls in the Grand Canyon state. Trump has consistently put up competitive polling numbers, while Lake has routinely lagged behind her Democratic opponent, Representative Ruben Gallego.
A similar phenomenon is playing out in at least two other battleground states where polling shows that despite Trump’s competitive standing, Republican challengers in pivotal Senate races are trailing the Democratic incumbents. In Nevada, Sam Brown, an Army veteran whom Trump helped elevate out of a crowded primary race, is trailing Senator Jacky Rosen, the mild-mannered, low-profile freshman Democrat. In Pennsylvania, David McCormick, a businessman, has begun to close what polling showed last month was a nine-point deficit with Senator Bob Casey.
…In Pennsylvania, these ticket splitters are largely working-class white voters who think of Casey, a three-term Democrat who hails from a prominent political family in the state, as being pro-labor. Casey has attacked his opponent, a former hedge fund executive who grew up in Pennsylvania but only recently moved back to run for Senate there, on his vast personal wealth and questioned his ties to the state.
In Nevada, Brown has leaned heavily on his biography, telling the story of how he was inspired to run for office after he survived a blast from a roadside bomb while serving as a U.S. Army lieutenant in Afghanistan. But until recently, he has run a largely cloistered campaign, allowing an onslaught of ads by Rosen, including referencing his move to Nevada from Texas, to define him.
“In previous elections, Sam Brown has come to our community,” said Nathan Robertson, the Republican mayor of Ely who has endorsed Rosen. “I’ve met him and his family; they’re very nice people. That being said, he’s just been running for office since he’s left the military. He doesn’t really have a track record to run on.”
… [In Arizona] recent polling indicated that 10 percent of Trump’s supporters said they would vote for Gallego in the Senate contest. The findings show that Gallego’s lead has been boosted largely by ticket splitters who are disproportionately young and Latino; representatives of his campaign say that they have also noticed a surge of crossover voters who are working-class men.
“A lot of them are people that look at Trump as a businessman, not as a politician,” Mr. Gallego said in an interview, describing voters who are supporting both him and the former president. “For me, it’ll be like, ‘You’re a veteran. I like that,’ ‘You come from the working class’ or ‘You understand what it means to be a worker.’ I think a lot of them feel like I meet their vibe, that they can trust me.”
“Taft” is the most legendary political name among Ohio Republicans. William Howard Taft was the 27th President and later the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. His son, Robert Taft, was a U.S. Senator and the leader of the far right among mid-20th Century Republicans. He was known, nationally as “Mr. Republican” and although he never made it all the way to the presidency he had a profound— and never good— influence on the GOPs policies. Several other Tafts, including his son Robert Taft Jr. and great-grandson Robert A. Taft II, continue the family business, the former having served as a Senator and the later as Governor. serving as U.S. Senator and Ohio Governor. The later is also the only politician to have ever beaten Sherrod Brown in an election. It was for Ohio’s Secretary of State in 1990. Yesterday he loudly endorsed Brown for Senate.
In an OpEd in the Dayton Daily News, he wrote how he’ s not a ticket-splitter but always votes a straight GOP line, but is making an exception this year. “I will be joining most voters who make judgments about candidates based not just on party affiliation but, often more importantly, on the candidate and his or her character, experience and expertise. Although not in agreement with Senator Brown on every policy issue, I believe Ohioans very much need a highly effective, experienced advocate in the U.S. Senate— someone who is squarely focused on both Ohio’s and America’s needs. This is the kind of leader Sherrod Brown has been. He has worked hard on behalf of the interests of the Dayton Region where I live, collaborating with Republican Congressman Mike Turner and others to advance the interests of Wright Patterson Air Force Base, the largest single site employer in the State of Ohio. In the years I have been teaching at the University of Dayton, Senator Brown has consistently accepted my invitation to come to campus and engage with our students, in spite of a busy statewide schedule. Recently, Senator Brown chose to hold his annual statewide Student Leadership Summit at UD.”
Senator Brown has held statewide offices representing Ohioans for 25 years. He knows all of Ohio well and understands the concerns and challenges of people across our state, whether in Dayton, Springfield or East Palestine, the site of a tragic train derailment. In my experience he and his staff at locations across Ohio provide excellent constituent service to individual Ohioans no matter who they are or how they have been affected by government decisions.
Senator Brown has gained seniority in the Senate that is advantageous to Ohioans. He chairs the Senate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee and sits on the Finance, Agriculture and Veterans Affairs Committees, all important to Ohio and our communities.
For these reasons I will be voting for Senator Brown on November 5.
Then there’s one curveball that could change everything in DC: Nebraska is on the verge of electing an independent who will owe no allegiance of any kind to either party. Dan Osborn is populist labor leader who is a nightmare for both Schumer and McConnell— and the special interests they represent. If he wins, he’ll be calling many shots in DC for at least the next two years.
And as red as the state is (R+13), the race is neck-and-neck. Writing for the Wall Street Journal on Saturday, Kristina Peterson and Anthony DeBarros reported that “the 49-year-old former union leader and political independent reminisced to a crowd north of 150 people about his role running the 2021 strike at Kellogg’s Omaha plant. Standing by his side was United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain, who led a historic strike that won auto workers large wage increases last year. ‘I didn’t see men or women or black or white or Republican or Democrat on the picket line,’ Osborn said. ‘I just saw people that wanted to go to work for a fair wage and some good benefits.’”
After polls showed the race narrowing, Republicans’ ad spending surged in September. An Oct. 8 memo from the Senate Leadership Fund, a super political-action committee affiliated with Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell, said that Nebraska “has emerged as a serious trouble-spot,” and that the group was now polling “to assess whether intervention is necessary to protect the seat.”
“It’s, I think, closer than a lot of us thought it was going to be,” said Sen. John Thune (R-SD), the Senate GOP whip.
There isn’t a Democratic candidate on the ballot for the seat.
Osborn has said that he has been a registered independent for as long as he has been able to vote and that if he is elected, he won’t caucus with either party. Democrats have a 51-49 majority in the Senate, but Republicans are favored to win control of the chamber in November.
Osborn has refused to accept any endorsements from either political party and declined to say if he will vote for Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris.
Instead, he emphasizes his support for the Second Amendment, a secure border with Mexico and his personal story: serving in the Navy and the Nebraska Army National Guard; meeting an “old Polish guy” who introduced him to the union at Kellogg, where he worked as an industrial mechanic for 17 years; and the 77-day strike he helped lead at the cereal maker. Osborn was fired from Kellogg after the strike. He said he was let go because he was the union president. Kellogg said it didn’t comment on personnel issues.
While surveys have shown a tight Senate race, little independent polling has been conducted for the contest. Nonpartisan analysts Cook Political Report and Inside Elections recently moved their ratings of the race to reflect a closer competition.
Osborn’s most talked-about campaign ad has depicted a stand-in for Fischer wearing a jacket with patches representing her corporate sponsors, in the style of Nascar race drivers. Osborn has declined to accept corporate donations.
Fischer dismissed the attack as a standard argument from Democrats. “Nebraskans know who I am,” she said.
While Osborn hit the campaign trail with Fain, Fischer, 73, spoke just a few blocks away to volunteers gathered at her Lincoln office. “We’ve got some good momentum as Nebraskans learn who my opponent is and especially as they learn who’s trying to buy this Senate seat,” she said. Fischer said her campaign had to start paying for ads three weeks earlier than planned to counter attacks against her.
Republicans have tried to paint Osborn as a Democrat in disguise. One ad refers to him as a “Trojan horse.” Outside PACs supporting Osborn have been funded by Democratic groups including the Sixteen Thirty Fund, a liberal nonprofit.
Osborn’s principal campaign committee pulled in $3.3 million during the third quarter, well ahead of the Fischer campaign’s $1.2 million, according to federal filings this week.
“He’s claiming to be an independent, but he’s definitely a Democrat,” said Rylin Kopsa, a 26-year old resident of Lincoln who chairs the Lancaster County Young Republicans.
Local Republicans expect Trump’s endorsement of Fischer to help. The Fischer campaign released an ad Wednesday that shows Trump, seated in his plane, criticizing Osborn.
Osborn’s supporters hope that his resonance among working-class Nebraskans, both in the Democratic-leaning areas around Omaha and in the western part of the state, can carry him to victory in November.
“He’s not a phony. He won’t be the power brokers’ puppet,” said Paul Anderson, 71, a Navy veteran and retired railroad worker who voted for Trump in 2016 but later turned against him.
As a conservative, Anderson he said he had to look past Osborn’s stances on issues such as abortion, but said it was easier for him to back an independent than a Democrat.
Osborn, too, has leaned into the idea that he would be a different kind of senator.
Chatting on an Omaha street corner last week, Osborn said he didn’t own a suit and that if he were elected, he would have to practice how to tie a necktie.
“I’m going to have to watch a YouTube video,” he said.
You can help Osborn with his get-out-the-vote effort here. I can’t think of a better way to elect someone who may well turn out to be one of the best members of Congress and, at the same time, giving Schumer and McConnell a thumb in the eye. Now, we’ll see if that split-ticket voting is really a thing.
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