Only 15 Incumbents Were Defeated But There Are 61 New Members
MAGA Mike’s position is precarious. Whether he remains speaker or not is entirely up to Trump. Actually, without Trump’s support he has no chance and with Trump’s support, he might— or will probably— survive. And Trump’s beens ending mixed signals. Trump wanted his speaker to get rid of the debt ceiling for him and MAGA Mike didn’t. Is that a death sentence? Maybe. The last public statement on MM’s viability was that he would “easily remain speaker” if he “acts decisively and tough” on spending bills and eliminates “all of the traps being set by Democrats.” He moved the bill slightly in Trump’s, and Musk’s, position— but not enough to give Trump the one thing he actually cared about. As always. Trump's support is conditional and transactional and will waver moment by moment, including how Trump reads the room. He is determined to be on the winning side no matter what. And some of Trump’s allies have expressed skepticism about Johnson's leadership.
However, there’s something working in MAGA Mike’s favor. As Roll Call’s John Bennett reported yesterday, a protracted GOP speaker fight could complicate the certification of the electoral college count. How ironic would that be! He noted that “lingering ill will among House Republicans after another messy spending fight could complicate Speaker Mike Johnson’s bid to retain the House gavel— and potentially the Jan. 6 formalizing of Donald Trump’s election victory.”
The speaker vote is on January 3, and the certification of the election is on January 6. As Senate president, Kamala would preside over the joint session and, “as speaker, Johnson will not have a presiding official role during the Jan. 6 counting session. But what happens— or does not happen— in the three days before would be crucial. But nothing is supposed to happen in the House until the new speaker is elected and swears in the new members. Depending on absences— and there will be some— MAGA Mike can only afford a few defections and it has one for sure, Thomas Massie (R-KY), and several Freedom Caucus extremists are ready to vote against him as well, including Eli Crane (AZ), Eric Burlison (MO) and Andy Ogles (TN) and possibly Andy Harris (MD), Russ Fulcher (ID), and Greg Steube (FL), more than enough to thwart MAGA Mike and throw the House— or at least the Republican conference— into total turmoil again.
“But,” wrote Bennett, “even if a speaker is not elected in time for Jan. 6, multiple congressional and legal scholars told CQ Roll Call that the clerk— if both parties agree— could potentially swear in all House members because the Constitution grants the chamber exclusive authority to organize itself.
Why should the Democrats help them out? In fact, they absolutely should not. But they have no balls… so they probably will if push comes to shove.
That said, the House will, of course be somewhat different next month than it is now. Before the elections last month, 24 Democrats and 24 Republicans retired and two Democrats, Bill Pascrell (NJ) and Sheila Jackson Lee (TX), died. Two Democrats, Cori Bush (MO) and Jamaal Bowman (NY) were defeated in primaries (financed by AIPAC and crypto-cartel cash). And two Republicans, Jerry Carl (AL) and Bob Good (VA), also lost their primaries.
The Democrats who retired:
Ruben Gallego (AZ) was replaced by Democrat Yassamin Ansari
Barbara Lee (CA) was replaced by Democrat Lateefah Simon
Anna Eshoo (CA) was replaced by Democrat Sam Liccardo
Tony Cardenas (CA) was replaced by Democrat Luz Rivas
Adam Schiff (CA) was replaced by Democrat Laura Friedman
Grace Napolitano (CA) was replaced by Democrat Gil Cisneros
Katie Porter (CA) was replaced by Democrat Dave Min
Lisa Blunt Rochester (DE) was replaced by Democrat Sarah McBride
Dutch Ruppersberger (MD) was replaced by Democrat Johnny Olszewski
John Sarbanes (MD) was replaced by Democrat Sarah Elfreth
David Trone (MD) was replaced by Democrat April Delaney
Elissa Slotkin (MI) was replaced by Republican Tom Barrett
Dan Kildee (MI) was replaced by Democrat Kristen Rivet
Dean Phillips (MN) was replaced by Democrat Kelly Morrison
Ann Kuster (NH) was replaced by Democrat Maggie Goodlander
Andy Kim (NJ) was replaced by Democrat Herb Conaway
Kathy Manning (NC) was replaced by Republican Addison McDowell
Wiley Nickel (NC) was replaced by Republican Brad Knott
Jeff Jackson (NC) was replaced by Republican Tom Moore
Earl Blumenauer (OR) was replaced by Democrat Maxine Dexter
Colin Allred (TX) was replaced by Democrat Julie Johnson
Abigail Spanberger (VA) was replaced by Democrat Eugene Vindman
Jennifer Wexton (VA) was replaced by Democrat Subramanyam
Derek Kilmer (WA) was replaced by Democrat Emily Randall
The Republicans who retired:
Debbie Lesko (AZ) was replaced by Republican Abraham Hamadeh
Lauren Boebert (CO) was replaced by Republican Jeff Hurd
Greg Lopez (CO) was replaced by Republican Lauren Boebert
Doug Lamborn (CO) was replaced by Republican Jeff Crank
Bill Posey (FL) was replaced by Republican Mike Haridopolos
Drew Ferguson (GA) was replaced by Republican Brain Jack
Jeff Banks (IN) was replaced by Republican Marlin Stutzman
Greg Pence (IN) was replaced by Republican Jefferson Shreve
Larry Bucshon (IN) was replaced by Republican Mark Messmer
Jake LaTurner (KS) was replaced by Republican Derek Schmidt
Garret Graves (LA) was replaced by Democrat Cleo Fields
Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO) was replaced by Republican Bob Onder
Matt Rosendale (MT) was replaced by Republican Troy Downing
Dan Bishop (NC) was replaced by Republican Mark Harris
Patrick McHenry (NC) was replaced by Republican Pat Harrigan
Kelly Armstrong (ND) was replaced by Republican Julie Fedorchak
Brad Wenstrup (OH) was replaced by Republican David Taylor
Jeff Duncan (SC) was replaced by Republican Sheri Biggs
Kay Granger (TX) was replaced by Republican Craig Goldman
Michael Burgess (TX) was replaced by Republican Brandon Gill
John Curtis (UT) was replaced by Republican Mike Kennedy
Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA) was replaced by Republican Michael Baumgartner
Alex Mooney (WV) was replaced by Republican Riley Moore
Mike Gallagher (WI) was replaced by Republican Tony Wied
And in the general election, in straight-up Democrat vs Republican races, 4 Democratic incumbents were beaten by Republicans and 7 Republican
incumbents were beaten by Democrats. The Democrats who lost:
Mary Peltola (AK) was replaced by Republican Nick Begich III
Yadira Caraveo (CO) was replaced by Republican Gabe Evans
Susan Wild (PA) was replaced by Republican Ryan Mackenzie
Matt Cartwright (PA) was replaced by Republican Ron Bresnahan
The Republicans who lost:
John Duarte (CA) was replaced by Democrat Adam Gray
Mike Garcia (CA) was replaced by Democrat George Whitesides
Michelle Steel (CA) was replaced by Democrat Derek Tran
Anthony D’Esposito (NY) was replaced by Democrat Laura Gillen
Marc Molinaro (NY) was replaced by Democrat Josh Riley
Brandon Williams (NY) was replaced by Democrat John Mannion
Lori Chavez DeRemer (OR) was replaced by Democrat Janelle Byrnum
I have high hopes for Delaware freshman Sarah McBride 
I have no hopes at all for Adam Gary
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