What Went Wrong In New York And New Jersey?
The partisan split in the House is going to be incredibly close. MAGA Mike will probably have a razor-thin majority although there’s also the possibility that Hakeem Jeffries will have that razor thin majority. Whichever happens, one of the parties’ ruthless conservative factions— willing to blow things up— will exercise functional control. So, another 2 years of congressional dysfunction... unless MAGA and Hakeem decide on a de facto coalition government, which would have to have Trump's sign on.
Right now there are 211 Republicans and 199 Democrats who have been elected. So, let’s look at the 25 uncalled races. Some really are in the bag and should have been called already— much closer races have been called and these make no sense, 2 for Republicans and 4 for Democrats:
CA-22— David Valadao (R) beat Rudy Salas (D) by 10 points (58% counted)
AZ-02— Eli Crane (R) beat Jonathan Nez (D) by 8.2 points (87% counted)
LA-06— Cleo Fields (D) beat Embert Guillory (R) by 13.1 points (all precincts counted)
CA-39— Mark Takano (D) beat David Serpa (R) by 11.6 points (59% counted)
AZ-04— Greg Stanton (D) beat Kelly Cooper (R) by 6.2 points (82% counted)
OR-06— Andrea Salinas (D) beat Mike Erickson by 6 points (79% counted)
[UPDATE: Salinas race finally called; she won 53.1% to 46.9%]
After that, there are 10 Democrats leading and 8 Republicans leading. The weirdest one in trying to predict an eventual outcome is the Alaska at-large seat, where Blue Dog co-chair Mary Peltola (D) is trailing Nick Begich (R). Ranked choice voting makes it less straight forward. Also the 24% of the votes not yet counted, are from rural areas that trend blue. It’s a topsy-turvey race and no one knows how it’s going to come out.
There are two more races involving Blue Dog co-chairs. Wonder why all 3 are having a hard time being reelected? First is for Maine’s red 2nd district, where Trump won by 9 points. All precincts have been counted and the shitty incumbent, Jared Golden, has declared victory, although no one else has called the race and his lead is just over a third of a point (1,306 votes out of 385,517 cast).
The third Blue Dog co-chair, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, is being challenged by literal neo-Nazi Joe Kent again. (This was the district where far right extremists burned ballot drop boxes a week ago.) 87% of precincts have been counted and Perez is leading 184,767 (51.5%) to 173,770 (48.5%). Most of the outstanding ballot are from her two strongest counties, Clark and Pacific, so she’s probably got this one.
I’d say of the rest, 5 GOP seats are likely (Schweikert, Steel, Calvert, Bacon and Duarte) 5 Democratic seats are likely (Bynum, Levin, Harder, Costa and Caraveo), leaving 3 districts with Democrats slightly ahead (Delaney, Kaptur and Min) and 3 districts with Republicans slightly ahead (Miller-Meeks, Ciscomani and Garcia). These 6 seats are so slightly differentiated right now, that no one can make a reasonable guess as to who will come out on top— and they will determine who controls the House... probably by a vote or two!
The other day, Hakeem Jeffries tweeted this in which he mentioned that “The path to take back the majority now runs through too close to call pick-up opportunities in Arizona, Oregon and Iowa— along with several Democratic-leaning districts in Southern California and the Central Valley. It’s shame the DCCC backed several GOP-leaning candidates in the Democratic-leaning districts in Southern California and the Central Valley because that is why MAGA Mike will probably be speaker again.
Corrupt conservatives Rudy Salas and Adam Gray both ran up repulsive records in the state legislature, lost these two districts in 2022 and were encouraged by the DCCC to run again this cycle. Jeffries and his allies spent over $14 million on Gray this time around and about $11 million on behalf of Salas. This is precisely why we keep advocating for the DCCC to be completely dismantled and rebuilt from the ground up.
And it isn’t just Salas and Gray— though they’re the worst of the lot. The DCCC candidates in the uncalled races are almost all Blue Dogs or New Dems, the kinds of corporate candidates that progressive voters can’t stomach, as the party abandons its FDR-era values and policies in search of mythical moderates. Anyway, here’s the state of those 6 uncalled races that will determine who the next Speaker is:
AZ-06 (PVI is R+3)— 76% of votes in
Incumbent Juan Ciscomani (R)- 166,152 (49.11%)
New Dem Kirsten Engel (D)- 164,357 (48.58%)
OH-09 (PVI is R+3)— all precincts reporting
Incumbent Marcy Kaptur (D)- 176,228 (48.14%)
Derek Marrin (R)- 175,035 (47.82%)
MD-06 (PVI is D+2)— 89% of votes in
New Dem April Delaney (D)- 174,514 (51.3%)
Neil Parrott (R)- 165,750 (48.7%)
CA-27 (PVI is D+4)— 77% of votes in
Incumbent Mike Garcia (R)- 127,061 (50.19%)
New Dem George Whitesides (D)- 126,088 (49.81%)
CA-47 (PVI is D+3)— 79% of votes in
Dave Min (D) 143,746 (50.19%)
Scott Baugh (R)- 142,668 (49.81)
IA-01 (PVI is R+3)— all precincts reporting
Incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)- 206,680 (50.10%)
New Dem Christina Bohannan (D)- 205,884 (49.90%)
I want to mention something else that is tangentially related, keeping in mind that Democrats lost 2 seats in New York and one in New Jersey that they should have won— the 2 in New York, largely because of exceptionally terrible candidates, John Avlon and Mondaire Jones and the one in New Jersey (Sue Altman) because… well read on… especially if you enjoy reading about Democratic Machine corruption. Julie Roginsky is a Democratic consultant and she contends that Trump’s gains in New York and New Jersey weren’t about Trump per se.
First this though:
2016
NY— Trump (36.52%), Hillary (59.01%)
NJ— Trump (41.35%), Hillary (55.45%)
2020
NY— Trump (37.74%), Biden (60.87%)
NJ— Trump (41.40%), Biden (57.33%)
2024
NY— Trump (44.2%), Kamala (55.8%)
NJ— Trump (46.5%), Kamala (51.5%)
I’m sure you will immediately notice how much better Trump did in both states this year compared to 2016 and 2020. Roginsky explains why:
Trump’s relatively strong numbers in both New Jersey and New York City were shocking to people who have not been paying attention. They were not so surprising to some of us who have lived and worked in both places for most of our lives.
First, let’s start with New York. Trump got nearly one-third of the vote in New York City, with especially huge gains in The Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn. The Bronx, a largely Black and Latino borough, saw him receive 35% more votes yesterday than he did in 2020. Queens, the most diverse large county in the nation, saw him gain over 16% since 2020. He gained in Brooklyn by 8% and in Manhattan by 20%.
Let me say this as a Manhattan liberal who has lived in New York City for over two decades and who grew up in The Bronx back when it was literally burning: Trump’s gains do not shock me in the least. The subways are a mess. The mental health crisis seems to be growing worse, with unhoused people not only clogging up the streets but menacing children as they walk to school. I get it— these people are ill and many have addiction problems. They desperately need help. But I also have a twelve-year-old son, who has to avoid mentally ill people lunging at him on his walk to school and who is afraid to ride the subway because he fears getting pushed on to the tracks. Statistically, we are told, this won’t happen. But there is not one time that I don’t think about it whenever I stand on a subway platform— and I grew up riding the subway every day in the 1980s, when things were empirically much worse.
Our mayor, when he is not getting indicted for doing favors for foreign governments, thinks that he is helping New Yorkers by closing down Zero Bond and partying like he’s at the Saturday Night Live after-after party every night. I truly cannot think of one item that he and our Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul have done to make our lives better. I’m sure that they can list plenty of things, but they can’t communicate effectively out of a paper bag, so I have no idea what those things might be. Truly, not one thing comes to mind— and I read the New York Times and the NY Post every single day.
…Then there is New Jersey, where Kamala Harris won by about 5 points. Democrats have not seen such a shellacking since 1988, when George Bush won the state. In Hispanic-rich Passaic County, Trump is actually on track to win. A local state senator, an accomplished and long-serving Latina legislator who is running for Congress to replace the recently deceased Rep. Bill Pascrell, barely eked out a victory. I promise you, this is not because she is not liked, known and respected.
Today, New Jersey Democratic insiders express shock about all this. Really? In January 2021, six months before Democratic Governor Phil Murphy was running for re-election, I commissioned four focus groups of primary Democratic voters. We asked their views on Murphy and they all agreed that he was a nice guy and had done a good job on COVID.
But then we started digging deeper, just asking them to tell us more about Murphy. And then the frustration about him and the Democratic leadership in general began to break through. African American voters were angry about liberals who wanted to defund the police. “Defund them in Princeton or Millburn,” said one Black man from an urban area, referencing two affluent, white towns. “But don’t you take them out of my neighborhood. Our kids are the ones getting shot.”
Latino voters were even more frustrated about Murphy. “This guy thinks he can come here and tell me that people crossing the border are getting free college tuition and I’m supposed to be grateful?” one asked. “My family has been here for five generations and I’m supposed to thank him for giving free stuff to people who cut in line? Talk to me about how you’re going to help my business or pave my road.”
…I remember turning to a prominent party leader after these groups and saying that I thought Murphy was in deep trouble if this is how the Democratic base was thinking about him. No one took this seriously. Poll after poll showed him up by at least ten points. On election night, even after the polls closed, one of his aides texted a prominent national reporter and told him that the governor would win by double digits. Murphy ended up eking out his re-election by three points— in a state with a nearly 1 million Democratic voter registration advantage…
So what did Murphy do after winning re-election? Did he double down on trying to communicate his accomplishments to voters who clearly expressed their anger by almost denying him a second term? No. Instead, Murphy spent six months trying to shove his unqualified wife down the throats of New Jersey Democrats to replace indicted Senator Bob Menendez. He did this with the full concurrence of almost every single party leader in New Jersey. The Democratic base went nuts and Tammy Murphy was eventually forced to drop out of the senate race in favor of Rep. Andy Kim, who went on to win the primary and the general election. But the sheer arrogance of the move is what voters still remember, especially because, in a fit of pique, Murphy refused to appoint Kim early to the senate once Menendez resigned after his conviction in August. Appointing Kim would have given New Jersey more seniority in the senate and helped its residents. Instead, Murphy gave the senate seat temporarily to his gubernatorial chief of staff, an operative who captained the sinking of the SS Tammy Murphy. Voters’ preferences be damned.
Then, for good measure, the Democratic legislature pushed through laws to decrease transparency that one senator privately called a “shit sandwich.” (Mind you, the senator voted for it— because party leaders insisted on it, much like they insisted that he support Tammy Murphy’s doomed senate bid, which he privately also called something worse than a “shit sandwich”). Bills the legislature passed to help address voters’ concerns about affordability did not get nearly the same attention this year as the governor’s attempted gift to his wife of a senate seat.
This is what voters in New York and New Jersey have been forced to contend with for the last several years. Did hundreds of thousands of them suddenly decide that they had made a mistake voting against Donald Trump in 2020, especially when he is more unhinged and vengeful than ever? No. But Hochul and Adams were not on the ballot in New York and neither was Murphy and most of his enablers in New Jersey. In states where Democrats knew their presidential candidate would win, they decided to send their Democratic state and local officials a message.
If 2021 was the canary in the coal mine for New Jersey Democrats, 2024 is a five-alarm fire. Murphy is term-limited and a new Democrat will run in his place in 2025. Adams is under indictment and it remains to be seen whether he makes the mayoral ballot again next November. Hochul is up in 2026.
But unless these party leaders start communicating their accomplishments as well as they communicate their self-serving behavior, we are looking at the very real possibility that their voters will continue giving them the back of the hand.
It wasn’t so long ago that Republicans controlled the governor’s mansions in Albany and Trenton and a Republican lived in Gracie Mansion in New York City. Democrats would do well to start listening to their voters, before their voters start listening to someone else.
Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop is running again the Machine and campaigning to replace Murphy as governor next year. He also blamed the Machine for Democrats’ poor showing on Tuesday. He wrote that “Trump improved his showing by 13 points in Bergen County, 14 points in Middlesex County and 11 points in Essex County, while actually winning in the traditional Democratic stronghold of Passaic County. Meanwhile, here in Hudson County, Trump picked up significant support in heavily Hispanic North Hudson communities, even though Jersey City rejected Trump by a wide margin. For over a year, our campaign for Governor has focused on reforming the Democratic Party in New Jersey, and I have never been more certain of how important that work is than right now. Rather than focusing on growing the party and expanding its reach, county party bosses and their political machines have instead poured their energy into monetizing their positions and making money for themselves and a few other insiders, showing the kind of lazy, ineffective leadership that allows results like this to happen. We need to put a stop to it. New Jersey voters are justifiably disgusted when they see Democratic state legislators continually pushing through self-serving bills that benefit only the political elite class, not regular residents. Voters aren’t stupid— when machine politicians gut open public records laws or make our elections less transparent, they see it and it creates apathy and a lack of trust.”
He concluded that “Democrats and voters of all parties want authentic, ethical candidates who are willing to tell you what they stand for, and then govern according to their values. We can’t let New Jersey continue to slide further and further to the right because our party is led by political elites who care more about their next lobbying client than implementing policies that will help the middle class. This is the moment that New Jersey breaks free from the shackles of inept, corrupt machine politics and moves forward into a new era of responsive, effective government.”
This is how House Members fared at the polls in New Jersey, in 2022 and then, for comparison's sake, this year:
NJ-01— Donald Norcross (D)- 62.3%… THIS year: 57.8%
NJ-02— Jefferson Van Drew (R)- 58.9%… THIS year: 58.4%
NJ-03— Andy Kim (D)- 55.5%… THIS year: Herb Conway- 53.0%
NJ-04— Chris Smith (R)- 66.9%… THIS year: 67.5%
NJ-05— Josh Gottheimer (D)- 54.7%… THIS year: 54.5%
NJ-06— Frank Pallone (D)- 57.5%… THIS year: 55.8%
NJ-07— Thomas Kean. Jr (R)- 51.4%… THIS year: 52.4%
NJ-08— Rob Menendez, Jr (D)- 73.6%… THIS year: 59.2%
NJ-09— Bill Pascrell (D)- 55.0%… THIS year: Nellie Pou- 50.6%
NJ-10— Donald Payne Jr. (D)- 77.6%… THIS year: LaMonica McIver- 74.2%
NJ-11— Mikie Sherrill (D)- 59.0%… THIS year: 56.1%
NJ-12— Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)- 63.1%… THIS year: 60.7%
I’m sure you’ve noticed that in every single district but one, the Democrat’s share of the vote went down, and that includes not just the worst members like Norcross and Gottheimer but even the best member, Bonnie Watson Coleman.
If the Democrats are going to clean house, they best start with the DCCC.