Startling New Report: Turnout Among Democratic Party Supporters Crashed In Last Year's Midterms

Are Engel and Hodge not in Congress now because of bad turnout or an incompetent DCCC?

Voters decide which candidates to back based on all kinds of cockamamie criteria, some of it far from rational. Just look at this ugly graphic from recent CBS News polling of Republican voters. Should these brain-damaged imbeciles even be allowed anywhere near a ballot box?

The reason I’m bringing this up again is because the Washington Post shared some of its own data-based analysis from the midterms yesterday about depressed turnout, especially among people of color. Scott Clement and Lenny Bronner reported that “Turnout in last year’s midterm elections fell from a century-high point of 50 percent in 2018 to 46.6 percent in 2022, and census data released Tuesday suggest the drop was concentrated among Black voters, younger voters and college graduates. Black voter turnout dropped by nearly 10 percentage points, from 51.7 percent in 2018 to 42 percent in 2022, according to a Washington Post analysis of the Census Bureau’s turnout survey. White voter turnout slipped by only 1.5 points to 53.4 percent. The 11-point turnout gap between White and Black voters is the largest in any presidential or midterm election since at least 2000. Turnout dropped by 5.4 points among Hispanic voters to 31 percent and by 5.5 points among Asian and Pacific Islander voters to 33 percent. Nonetheless, turnout among both groups was much higher than midterm elections before 2018. Turnout among American Indian and Alaska Native voters dipped 2.1 points to 32 percent. The decline in Black turnout may have hurt Democratic candidates in some midterm contests, according Michael McDonald, a turnout expert and University of Florida Associate Professor. McDonald said lower-than-expected turnout in Milwaukee ‘likely cost the Democrats the Wisconsin Senate seat and could have made some other races much closer than what they appeared to be, for example Florida.’”

Turnout also dropped sharply among voters under age 30, falling from 32 percent in 2018 to 26 percent in 2022, a 6.5-point drop, though turnout was significantly higher than any midterm election from 2002-2014. Turnout also dropped among voters in their 30s and 40s, but voters ages 50 saw less of a dip. A 65 percent majority of seniors cast ballots in 2022, falling less than one point from 2018.

Americans with more formal education consistently vote at higher rates, but 2022 saw a sharper drop among college graduates. The Post’s analysis finds turnout dropped 5.7 points among those with bachelor’s degrees and 5.8 points among people with postgraduate degrees in 2022, along with a 5-point drop among those with some college education. Turnout was lowest among those with a high school education or less (32 percent), but that marked a smaller 2.7-point drop from four years earlier.

The Census turnout survey found women turned out at a slightly higher rate than men (48 percent vs. 46 percent), but turnout among women was down by 4.7 points from four years before, compared with a smaller 2.8-point drop among men.

It almost makes no sense, considering how much better the Democrats did than expected, results that have been credited to women, to people with college education, to young voters and to traditional loyalty from people of color. I looked closely at several close races that Republicans won narrowly. It’s impossible to draw any conclusions from The Post’s national analysis and I am certain that many factors went into the outcomes— including , for example, miserable Democratic candidates like Adam Gray, Christie Smith and Rudy Salas in California, Mickey Mouse DCCC bungling in Arizona, Michigan and hopeless gerrymandering in Virginia.

What you’ll find below is the partisan swing in each district plus Biden’s 2020 election total. So, for example, in AZ-01, the partisan swing is strongly in favor of a Republican but Biden won the district narrowly. The DCCC didn’t believe in their candidate and spent only $95,095, killing Hodge’s chance to win. They did the same thing in AZ-06, destroying Engel’s campaign by refusing to fund it, spending just $95,000. (The DCCC was very enthusiastic about corrupt conservatives Adam Gray and Rudy Salas and spent $2,828,204 on Gray and $5,521,046 on Salas.

AZ-01— R+7 (50.1%)

• David Schweikert- 182,336 (50.44)

• Jevin Hodge- 179,141 (49.56)

AZ-06— R+7 (49.3%)

• Juan Ciscomani- 177,201 (50.7%)

• Kirsten Engel- 171,969 (49.3%)

CA-13— D+7 (54.3%)

• John Duarte- 67,060 (50.21%)

• Adam Gray- 66,496 (49.79%)

CA-22— D+10 (55.3%)

• David Valadao- 52,994 (51.5%)

• Rudy Salas- 49,862 (48.5%)

CA-27— D+8 (55.1%)

• Mike Garcia- 104,624 (53.2%)

• Christy Smith- 91,892 (46.8%)

CA-41— R+7 (48.6%)

• Ken Calvert- 123,869 (52.3%)

• Will Rollins- 112,769 (47.7%)

CA-45— D+5 (52.1%)

• Michelle Steel- 113,960 (52.4%)

• Jay Chen- 103,466 (47.6%)

IA-03— R+2 (48.9%)

• Zach Nunn- 156,262 (50.35%)

• Cindy Axne- 154,117 (49.65%)

MI-10— R+6 (48.8%)

• John James- 159,202 (48.80%)

• Carl Marlinga- 157,602 (48.31%)

NE-02— R+3 (52.2%)

• Don Bacon- 112,663 (51.3%)

• Tony Vargas- 106,807 (48.7%)

NJ-07— R+3 (51.1%)

• Tom Kean- 159,392 (51.4%)

• Tom Malinowski- 150,701 (48.6%)

NY-04— D+10 (56.8%)

• Anthony D’Esposito- 140,622 (51.8%)

• Laura Gillen- 130,871- 48.2%

NY-17— D+7 (54.5%)

• Mike Lawler- 143,550 (50.32%)

• Sean Patrick Maloney- 141,730 (49.68%)

NY-19— R+1 (51.3%)

• Marc Molinaro- 146,004 (50.8%)

• Josh Riley- 141,509 (49.2%)

NY-22— D+2 (52.6%)

• Brandon Williams- 135,544 (50.49%)

• Francis Conole- 132,913 (49.51%)

OR-05— D+3 (52.2%)

• Lori Chavez DeRemer- 178,813 (51.0%)

• Jamie McLeod-Skinner- 171,514 (49.0%)

VA-02— R+6 (50.1%)

• Jen Kiggans- 153,328 (51.7%)

• Elaine Luria- 143,219 (48.3%)

WI-03— R+9 (46.8%)

• Derrick Van Orden- 164,743 (51.9%)

• Brad Pfaff- 152,977 (48.1%)