Speaker Scalise? Is That The Same As Speaker David Duke (Without The Baggage)?

Trump Failed To Deliver

In a giant slap in the face to Trump, House Republicans rejected his candidate for Speaker. Depending how you count the vote, racist Steve Scalise beat Nazi Gym Jordan 113-99 or 110-100. To get to 217 on the House floor he needs another 107 votes… something Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan referred to a a “Sisyphean task” this morning. But he’s trying. He “dispatched a wave of surrogates to call and lobby members who had been backing Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH). Scalise took meetings last night with holdouts and no votes, trying to understand their opposition and how he could flip them. Scalise’s gamble appears to be this— once he became the party’s nominee for speaker, Republicans would fall in line behind him. But that’s simply not happening. Scalise’s fellow Republican leaders believe he should be afforded the time to try to win over colleagues. Yet the window for Scalise is very narrow, perhaps just a few days, to show that he can get to 217.”

The way Sherman and Bresnahan see it, “the real hard-core ‘Never Scalise’ vote is probably 20 to 30 members, although it’s hard to estimate. Scalise can only afford to lose four votes on the floor… A huge block of members seems unwilling to consider a Scalise speakership. That opposition runs from moderates all the way to hardcore conservatives. Nancy Mace (R-SC) went on Jake Tapper’s CNN show Wednesday to remind the public that Scalise once attended a white supremacist meeting when running for the legislature in Louisiana. Rep. Max Miller (R-OH) keeps saying he’ll only vote for Jordan on the floor. Mike Lawler (R-NY) has all but closed off the possibility of voting for Scalise, as have Carlos Gimènez (R-FL) and Lloyd Smicker (R-PA)… Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) said she’d rather Scalise focus on treating his multiple myeloma, a form of blood cancer, than serve as speaker… George Santos (R-NY) posted late last night that he’s never heard from Scalise since being in Congress and won’t back him. Bob Good (R-VA) and Lauren Boebert (R-CO) both said they would vote for Jordan on the floor. Tom Massie (R-KY) said he assumed there were at least 20 conservatives lined up against Scalise.”

As for Trump, he’s pissed off Jordan didn’t win and won’t help Scalise. Sources say Scalise (who hasn’t endorsed Trump for the nomination this year) hasn’t been loyal enough to Trump, so he shouldn't count on Trump to help woo enough GOP holdouts— who include Trump allies— to push him over the finish line.

Last night, Washington Post reporters Marianna Sotomayor, Leigh Ann Caldwell and Jacqueline Alemany wrote that “House Republicans were on the verge of open revolt Wednesday after the ideologically fractious conference failed to coalesce around a speaker nominee, leaving the chamber rudderless and leaderless for an eighth day. The inability of House Republicans to agree on who will lead them has left the chamber in an effective standstill since Kevin McCarthy was ousted as speaker, unable to consider any legislation to aid Israel in its war against Hamas or pass any appropriation bills to avoid a potential government shutdown in mid-November. Neither issue produced enough urgency for Republicans to quickly elect a speaker as many had hoped, again highlighting the conference’s deep divisions.”

Last night Jordan said he would back Scalise and this morning, Matt Gaetz said he would as well. That should help, if not on the first ballot, at least on subsequent ones. Many of the “no” votes are weak flip-floppers who can be brought around with minimum effort. My guess is that Massie’s predictions of 20-30 hardcore no votes in bot even close. Sotomayor, Caldwell Jacqueline Alemany noted that “emotions are raw, divisions are deep and grudges are held after” but that isn’t going to go much beyond a first ballot. There’s no viable alternative and McCarthy now claims he doesn’t want to job back— although his entire career is built on lies, so that may just be the latest strategy.

Many members of the House Freedom Caucus, an ideological faction Jordan founded in response to Scalise’s leadership of the Republican Study Committee years ago, have continually expressed worry that Scalise as speaker would just be an extension of McCarthy’s leadership, given that both have served in GOP leadership for about a decade.

“We have to quit having this place run the way it was run,” said House Freedom Caucus Chair Scott Perry (R-PA), who has not committed to supporting Scalise.

Multiple Republican lawmakers said it was a monumental mistake for Scalise to block a measure that would have united the Republican conference behind a speaker nominee behind closed doors.

Nearly 100 members backed a rule change that would require the speaker to find 217 Republican votes before they adjourned from their closed, no-phones-allowed conference meeting. Scalise and his allies worked on tabling the motion because they knew he would win the nomination with a simple majority, and made a bet that it would be easier to coalesce around him on the House floor with the public pressure of the cameras rather than if the vote were closed. They were able to successfully table the proposed change.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) said he was a “hard no” on Scalise because the vote to elect a speaker was “rushed” to the floor, saying Scalise made a huge “mistake.”

Several McCarthy allies left the closed meeting looking serious and angry, with many refusing to talk with reporters. A handful had been discussing nominating McCarthy on the floor, but when Scalise won the nomination in conference, it solidified the decision for a certain bloc to do so.

For some members, the decision to stick with Jordan was based on various plans to ensure the government is funded by Nov. 17, when a short-term funding extension expires. Multiple lawmakers who attended candidate forums this past week said Jordan proposed putting forward a stopgap spending bill, known as a continuing resolution, that funds the government at current levels for six months.

But many hard-right members are vehemently against any short-term spending bill because it would rely on Democratic support to pass— a reason McCarthy was ousted. But they are also supportive of a mechanism that would be triggered if the government is funded at current levels through the beginning of the year. A six-month CR would trigger an automatic 1 percent cut in government spending in April if Congress is unable to pass its funding bills.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), who proposed the 1 percent cut that became law during the debt ceiling debate earlier this year, met with Scalise after the closed meeting and said on X that he “let Scalise know in person that he doesn’t have my vote on the floor, because he has not articulated a viable plan for avoiding an omnibus.”

“It’s really, really hard for this Republican House to govern. We have incredibly tight margins and, frankly, some members who have a hard time getting to yes on almost anything on almost every week,” Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-SD) said. “I’m a pragmatist. I just understand that I never get everything I want in any negotiation. There are a lot of people around here who don’t understand that, and it makes it hard to govern.”

Asked whether this standstill complicates House Republicans’ ability to retain the majority in next year’s elections, Johnson skirted the question saying, “it would be easier with bigger margins and, frankly, I think would be easier in a political environment where people understood that governing requires some give and take.”

Compounding the challenges for both Scalise and Jordan are their pasts.

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC), who voted in support of ousting McCarthy last week, said she could not vote for Scalise because she learned Tuesday evening that he spoke at a white supremacist rally while serving as a state representative in Louisiana.

While a Scalise adviser confirmed he spoke at an event founded by former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke in 2002, he denied knowing that the event was affiliated with racists and neo-Nazis. “Given what’s happening in Israel right now, I just cannot support someone who’s associated with anything that is divisive, whether it’s race or religion. I’m just a hard pass on that,” she said.

Many other moderate Republicans have expressed similar concerns over Scalise’s past, but they have not done the same with Jordan, who has been accused of ignoring a sexual abuse allegation that Ohio State wrestlers made against a doctor while Jordan coached there.