None of those revelations coming out of the Fox-Dominion trial are surprising anyone, right? I mean we all knew what Fox News was all about since at least 2004 when BraveNewFilms released their classic exposé on the channel, Outfoxed. I mean Sidney Powell belongs in a mental institution, not on TV spreading her deranged insanity? You were unaware? And the same for Rudy Giuliani— you didn’t know? It comes as news to you that Fox is a propaganda outlet for the Republican Party and the MAGA movement first and foremost and as far as “news”… meh. We knew; conservative insiders knew… the base? The dumbed-down morons who worship Trump. They’ll never know.
Matthew Continetti is a far right journalist married to William Kristol’s daughter. He was one of the trio of creepy conservatives who founded the Washington Free Beacon website a decade ago. This morning, in his column 2024 Is Make or Break for the Senate GOP, he warned Republicans that their blind extremism is leading them down the path to electoral disaster in 2024. They could blow the favorable map that should make a take-over of the Senate an absolute slam dunk. There are 8 vulnerable Democratic seats and no Republican seats anyone thinks will flip— unless you think Ted Cruz can lose Texas or Rick Scott can lose Florida. [Note: Blue America is confident that Lucas Kunce can replace Josh Hawley in Missouri, but that isn’t on the radar yet, so don’t tell anyone— just contribute to Lucas’ campaign whenever you have an extra buck or two and feel in the mood to stop fascism in its tracks.]
“But looks,” warned Continetti, “can be deceiving. The last election cycle also seemed promising for Senate Republicans. They held 50 seats, enjoyed a favorable political environment, and eyed potential pickups in three states that Trump lost narrowly in 2020. They ended up losing one seat and have been squabbling with each other ever since. Senate Republicans want to avoid a repeat. They know that they will be on defense in both 2026 and 2028, and that fewer seats will be in play… [T]he 2024 campaign is a make-or-break moment for Senate Republicans.”
The problem, of course, is the GOP bugaboo: their fringe, whether the tea baggers or the MAGAts taking over the party and forcing unelectable statewide candidates onto the ballot. Or, as Continetti put it: “As always, candidate quality will be essential. A good candidate is likable, telegenic, fluent in the issues, quick on his feet, and appropriate to the culture of his state. Since the 2010 campaign, however, Republican Senate chances have run aground on the shoals of bad candidacies. The party has a knack for nominating individuals who strike voters as extreme or odd or blatantly unqualified.” He tells Republicans they have to nominate “candidates whose personal traits and policy preferences don’t send independents screaming for the hills.”
Consider the four races that the University of Virginia Center for Politics classifies as Lean Republican or as Tossups. The most vulnerable incumbent is Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, whose seat is rated Lean Republican. The GOP hopes that the 75-year-old Manchin will announce his retirement, guaranteeing a pickup and freeing money for other contests. If Manchin does run, he faces an uphill battle, but the degree of difficulty depends on his opponent. For example, according to a poll released this week by the Senate Leadership Fund, Manchin would lose to Governor Jim Justice. But he would defeat congressman Alex Mooney as well as the state’s attorney general Patrick Morrissey, whom he bested in 2018. West Virginia is no slam dunk.
The new head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), Steve Daines of Montana, has a keen interest in defeating his fellow Montanan Jon Tester. At this writing, Tester hasn’t said if he’ll run for reelection, but he sounded like a candidate when he made loud and angry criticisms of the Biden administration over the Chinese spy balloon.
Don’t underestimate Tester. Behind his good-ol’-boy persona is a shrewd politician who has impressed me since I first met him in 2006. The GOP primary is expected to draw in candidates such as congressman Matt Rosendale, who lost to Tester in 2018, and Governor Greg Gianforte. Be on the lookout, though, for a fresh face who could defuse Tester’s attacks and successfully tie him to the national Democratic Party.
Sherrod Brown of Ohio, like Manchin and Tester, is a Democrat who has thrived in a red state thanks to talent and luck. Brown’s talents include a knack for retail politics, an economic nationalism that appeals to populists of all stripes, and a constituent service program that is well-regarded on Capitol Hill and much appreciated at home. Brown’s luck is his timing. All three of his Senate campaigns took place in Democratic years. He draws opponents who lack personality and carry baggage.
Still, every winning streak ends. For that to happen to Brown, Republicans would have to nominate a strong presidential candidate, and Brown’s Senate opponent would have to replicate, at the least, Senator J.D. Vance’s 2022 coalition. Vance defeated congressman Tim Ryan by 6 points in an open-seat race.
State senator Matt Dolan, whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians baseball franchise, has announced his candidacy against Brown. Others will follow. Dolan surged late in the 2022 U.S. Senate primary and placed third. He is less like Vance and more like Governor Mike DeWine, who won reelection last year by a whopping 26 points. Former state treasurer Josh Mandel, who came in second place in the Senate primary to Vance and who failed against Brown in 2012, has said he won’t run.
The final tossup, Arizona, features some familiar faces. Last December, incumbent Kyrsten Sinema switched her party affiliation to independent, though she caucuses with the Democrats and hasn’t said if she will run for another term. Congressman Ruben Gallego, a member of the left-wing Progressive Caucus, has entered the race for the Democratic nomination. He’s the favorite.
The GOP doesn’t have a frontrunner. Tech executive Blake Masters, who lost to Senator Mark Kelly last year by 5 points, is contemplating another bid. Former news anchor Kari Lake, who lost the governor’s race to Katie Hobbs last year by less than 1 point, met with NRSC officials in Washington in early February. A lot of Republicans and conservatives, including me, would love to see former governor Doug Ducey run for Senate. He isn’t considering it.
An OH Predictive Insights poll from this week illustrates the Republican dilemma. Gallego is winning. And the GOP candidate who performed best in a head-to-head matchup against Gallego and in a three-way fight against Gallego and Sinema is Ducey. Who’s not interested in the job.
Complicating matters further is Sinema’s cheering section within the business community and among some Republicans, who like her independent spirit and opposition to tax increases. If the Arizona GOP nominates Lake or Masters or another Ultra-MAGA social media personality, a chunk of the party is likely to back Sinema. And the Democrats would be one step closer to keeping their Senate majority.
You can be sure, too, that Democrats will run ads for pro-Trump candidates in Republican primaries who they see as unelectable in a general election. They pursued the same strategy of reflexive control in 2022, and the strategy worked.
Continetti concludes with a warning to his party, a warning that will be largely unheeded on the ascendant fringes: “If Republicans are serious about winning the Senate, and potentially gaining unified control of the federal government, they need to select candidates for office who appeal not only to the grassroots but also to independent voters, and who understand that Americans want common-sense answers for pressing economic and social problems, not conspiracy theories, harsh rhetoric, and spite. If Republicans are serious about winning the Senate, they need to get serious about who represents their party. They’ve blown it before. Will they blow it again?”
Largely due to gerrymandering and racial and class dis-integration, House elections function on a different set of dynamics. But, again, Republican fringe extremism can create the kinds of conditions where candidates in the few purple districts and the marginally red districts can become vulnerable to losing their seats. Marge ain't going nowhere no matter how many Jewish space lasers she babbles about at neo-Nazi conventions. On the other hand, GOP psycho-incumbents like Lauren Boebert (CO), Scott Perry (PA), George Santos (NY), Anna Paulina Luna (FL), John Duarte (CA), Marc Molinaro (NY), Richard Hudson (NC), Bill Huizenga (MI), Ken Calvert (CA), Jen Kiggans (VA), Nick LaLota (NY), María Elvira Salazar (FL), Bryan Steil (WI), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR), Jeff Van Drew (NJ), John James (MI), Bob Good (VA), Brandon Williams (NY), Monica De La Cruz (TX), Mike Turner (OH) and Mike Lawler (NY), are making themselves vulnerable by their own decisions to play up to the MAGA extremists.
On Friday, Ally Mutnick and Marianne Levine reported that “House and Senate Republicans widely acknowledge that bad candidates cost them seats in the 2022 election. They just don’t agree on what to do about it in 2024.” MAGAt candidates dragged the party down so “the new regime at the NRSC is reversing its policy of neutrality and will now selectively intervene to pick winners in open GOP [Senate] primaries. But in the House, where Republicans are protecting a paper-thin majority, the campaign committee will remain largely hands-off.”
The divide between House and Senate Republicans over how to handle future primaries highlights how intractable the problem of blocking extreme candidates is for Republicans. The complicated reality is that intervening in primaries can appear heavy-handed and even provide ammo for candidates looking to rail against the D.C. establishment. But the alternative is watching as unpalatable nominees threaten the party’s general election odds— at a moment when thin margins in both the House and Senate mean the majorities could hinge on any seat.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell openly lamented that “candidate quality” cost the GOP last year. In the House, the practice of meddling in primaries has become so fraught that it was wielded by the right against Kevin McCarthy in his bid for speaker last month. It’s not clear a policy change— even one that might net a few more battleground seats— would be worth the trouble it would cause inside the GOP conference.
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