Republicans Are Dying To Slash Medicaid— Except They Don't Want Their Political Careers To Die

Everyone's Waiting To See What Trump's Sleight Of Hand Will Be

This page has 4 pictures of electronic billboards strategically placed around Washington DC by Families Over Billionaires, all along routes likely to be used by Members of Congress. They went up yesterday, a day when everyone was buzzing that the only political figure in the country who unites Americans from all ideologies and demographics is… Bernie. Schumer, Newsom, Trump, Musk, Vance… all in the toilet, especially Schumer, despised by Democrats, Republicans and independents. 

“The Democratic Party,” wrote Elliott Morris, “is about as unpopular with their voters today as Republicans were with theirs in 2013-2015. That’s why people are saying we are on the verge of a ‘Democratic Tea Party.’… Bernie Sanders gets the # 1 spot, with 46% of adults saying they view him favorably and 39% unfavorably. That’s pretty good, but if you’re trying to think about a candidate who can win back some of the voters Democrats lost from 2020 to 2024, it is notable that Sanders is also net favorable with young people (by nearly 20 points), lower-income voters, moderates, independents, Hispanics, Black voters, and men.” All this while Democrats absolutely hate Schumer, Gavin Newsom and the Democratic Party itself.

So here we have Members of Congress on their way to work— or whatever you call what they do— puzzling over Bernie’s popularity and seeing these billboards.

And they all had just read in Punchbowl about the obstacles Republicans have put in the way of their own reconciliation bill to get Trump’s agenda passed without having to depend on Schumer, who’s unlikely to step out for them again so fast. Andrew Desiderio, Laura Weiss and Max Cohen reported that more than a few GOP senators are praying that Trump is really on their side when it comes to not touching Medicaid. [Trump is NOT other side, but her has to pretend he is for as long as he can before blaming someone else.] “Several Senate Republicans have said they won’t support deep cuts to Medicaid, yet the House GOP budget resolution would likely require slashing Medicaid in order to achieve the $1.5 trillion in spending cuts outlined in that chamber’s resolution,” they wrote as an introduction to the problem. ‘I have concerns. We’ve got a lot, a lot, a lot of folks in West Virginia that really depend on Medicaid,’ said Sen. Jim Justice (R-WV), whose state has among the highest percentage of residents who are Medicaid recipients in the country. Justice said he trusts Trump won’t back cuts that would hurt kids or seniors, but the former governor warned he isn’t ‘going to just rubber-stamp anything.’”

Justice’s fellow West Virginian, GOP Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, is also in that group, as are Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Josh Hawley (R-MO).

Even Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), a loyal Trump ally, said during a Fox Business interview on Monday that the Medicaid cuts in the House bill could “decimate” his state, adding that Republicans need to “find a way around it.”

During the vote-a-rama on the Senate’s “skinny” budget resolution, Collins and Hawley backed a Democratic amendment barring tax cuts for wealthy Americans if Medicaid reductions are included.

“I’m not gonna vote for something that cuts those folks’ benefits, period,” Hawley told us. “That’s a red line for me, and I think it is for the president. And that’s good.”

Fiscal hawks: Republicans also need to be conscious of senators who want to cut more and remove the debt-limit increase— a Trump priority— from the compromise resolution. The House’s budget plan includes a $4 trillion increase in the nation’s borrowing limit.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) reiterated Monday he’d vote against reconciliation if it includes a debt-limit hike.

Then there’s Sen. Ron Johnson, (R-WI) who believes the $1.5 trillion in spending cuts outlined by House Republicans is “totally inadequate.” Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) agrees.

“I’m not gonna support any budget resolution that doesn’t return us to some reasonable pre-pandemic [spending] base,” Johnson said in an interview.

Defense hawks: The House GOP budget resolution prescribes a $100 billion defense spending boost. The Senate’s number is $150 billion. Several defense hawks, including Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker (R-MS), believe $150 billion should be the floor, not the ceiling for new defense funding.

Wicker was among the Senate Republicans who backed the recent government funding bill only after getting commitments that the Pentagon shortfall would be addressed through reconciliation. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth discussed this with GOP senators at lunch two weeks ago.

But when we asked Wicker if Hegseth is on board, he responded: “I sure hope so.”

“We need to exceed $150 [billion] because of the disappointing number in the continuing resolution,” Wicker said. “I’m hopeful and confident that once we make the case, we can be successful.”

Dem strategy news: Senate Democrats hope to use the reconciliation fight to find some much-needed unity after the CR debacle.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer will convene a panel of reconciliation experts for Wednesday’s Democratic lunch, including Mike Evans, a former Finance Committee staffer who worked on the Inflation Reduction Act; ex-OMB staffer and longtime Senate aide Michael Linden; and former CMS administrator Chiquita Brooks-LaSure.

The goal is to highlight and exploit GOP divisions, particularly on Medicaid cuts.