Remember When New Hampshire Was Considered Safely Blue? Ask The State Legislators About That

If The Dems Run Kamala In 2028, New Hampshire Could Flip Red

Ayotte knew how to downplay her Trump connection this time

Kamala won News Hampshire’s 4 electoral votes last month, but Trump made some real gains in the Granite State. In 2020, Biden beat him 424,921 (52.7%) to 365,654 (45.4%). This year Kamala’s win was far narrower— 418,496 (50.9%) to 395,578 (48.1%). It was her closest call of any state she won. In 2020, Trump took only 2 counties, Belknap and Coos. This year, Trump won 5 counties and Kamala won 5 counties. He managed to flipp Carroll, Rockingham and Sullivan red.

Meanwhile, in the gubernatorial race, Republican Kelly Ayotte, a former US Senator, beat Democrat Joyce Craig, former Manchester mayor, by a much wider margin— 435,400 (53.6%) to 360,068 (44.3%). Ayotte vastly outraised Craig and spent $over $18 million to Craig’s $6.8 million.

Both congressional districts were won by Democrats and both performed better than Kamala. Chris Pappas won with 54.0% while Kamala won his district with 50.25% (down from Biden’s 52.2%). And the open second district went to Maggie Goodlander, who took 52.9%, compared to Kamala’s 51.1% (down from Biden’s 53.5%).

The Democrats had been hoping to flip the state House. They didn’t. There are 400 seats. They went into the election with 199 seats to the GOP’s 201. They needed just 2 seats to grab the majority. Instead, the Democrats lost 21 seats, giving the Republicans a 222 to 178 majority. The state Senate also got redder. Going into the election, the 24 seat Senate had 14 Republicans and 10 Democrats. The Dems lost 2 seats, leaving the GOP with a strong 16-8 majority. Incumbents Shannon Chandley and Donna Soucy, the minority leaders, lost their seats. It was a bad night for legislative Dems— as it was next door in Vermont.

Yesterday, looking at legislate races around the country, Caroline Vakil spoke with Michael Biundo, a prominent New Hampshire GOP strategist. Biundo, who worked in the state’s legislature elections, “said it behooves his party to make good on the campaign promises the GOP made during the election cycle, or risk losing them again in upcoming elections. Republicans talked about ‘changing and fixing the economy. We talked about cutting spending, making efficiencies. We talked about getting people back to work and putting power back into people’s hands,’ Biundo said. ‘I think we’re at a point in politics in general that if we don’t deliver, voters are very fickle,’ he added, ‘and you’re borrowing voters— you don’t own voters— you’re borrowing voters.’” 

The Republican legislative campaign also leaned heavily on anti-trans scare tactics and messaging, more of that stuff about not letting men compete against little girls in sports. Let’s see if that brings any satisfaction to New Hampshire voters in 2026.