Dusty Johnson (R-SD) is a mainstream Republican, not a wild-eyed extremist. And yet, today it’s Johnson— rather than, say, Marjorie Traitor Greene (busy trying to draft a bill to change the name of the Gulf of Mexico)— who’s offering the bill to re-acquire the Panama Canal— the Panama Canal Repurchase Act. The bill authorizes Señor T and Marco Rubio to begin negotiations with Panama— which isn’t interested in selling. Trump is hinting that if Panama doesn’t sell, he’ll use the military to seize the Canal Zone.
The Canal’s value is significantly more than Trump could possibly agree to pay. The canal generates substantial annual revenue, primarily from tolls— around $2 billion in annual profits. A common method to estimate the value of an asset like the Panama Canal would be to use a discounted cash flow model, calculating the present value of future cash flows. Assuming a conservative annual profit of $2 billion and a discount rate of 5%, the canal could be valued at approximately $40 billion (20 years of revenue discounted at 5%).
But… the canal has immense geopolitical importance, which could add a significant premium to its valuation. Its strategic value might be considered priceless in a military or geopolitical context. And building a similar canal today would likely cost far more than the original $375 million (in 1914 dollars). Adjusting for inflation and modern engineering costs, estimates suggest the replacement cost would exceed $50-100 billion, considering labor, land acquisition, and environmental impact.
The political ramifications of such a sale would likely inflate the price dramatically, as Panama would demand compensation for losing control over a national symbol of sovereignty. But… Panama does not have an army. Following the U.S. invasion in 1989 that deposed Manuel Noriega, Panama abolished its military. The country’s 1994 Constitution explicitly prohibits the establishment of a permanent military force. It relies on a combination of police and paramilitary units for internal security and border protection. Americans opposing this would have several recourses, though the effectiveness of these measures would depend on the political climate and the willingness of other institutions to act.
An unprovoked military attack on Panama would violate both domestic and international law. The 1973 War Powers Resolution would require Trump to consult Congress before introducing U.S. forces into hostilities. Opponents could challenge the action in court if Trump bypassed Congress. Without congressional approval, an attack on Panama would be considered unauthorized. Civil rights groups, members of Congress, or affected parties could file lawsuits challenging the legality of the action. Courts could issue injunctions to block further military operations, although the judiciary might defer to the executive branch during an ongoing conflict, even a provoked one.
Congress could initiate impeachment proceedings against Trump for abuse of power or violation of the Constitution, particularly if he acted without congressional authorization. But that hasn’t gone anywhere— even when the Democrats controlled both chambers. Congress controls the federal budget and could cut off funding for military operations in Panama, effectively halting the campaign, although the chances of that ever happening are less than zero. An invasion would likely be condemned by the UN as a violation of Panama’s sovereignty. Opponents could lobby for resolutions against the U.S. or even sanctions (though these would be vetoed by the U.S. in the Security Council). Panama would seek support from the OAS, which would amount to a hill of beans against a transgressive asshole like Trump.
Large-scale demonstrations in the U.S. could draw public attention to the issue and increase pressure on Congress and other institutions to act but Trump would probably love an excuse to kill Americans. High-ranking military officials could refuse to carry out unlawful orders, citing their duty to uphold the Constitution and international law. This would create temporary logistical and political challenges for Trump but he would have them shot.
The only real hope would be the 2026 and 2028 elections where the GOP could be punished by galvanized opposition— or maybe the voters would decide to punish the Democrats instead.
Based on trump's history, here is what he might do:
1) offer Panama $1 Trillion, payable in installments of $100 billion per year.
2) pay installment #1
3) refuse to pay any more. dare Panama to sue or retake it militarily.
He's done this hundreds of times in his lifetime. He's untouchable and he knows it.