Overall, Democrats Weren't Offering Women Voters— Or Any Voters— Enough To Turn The Election Tide

The lady cavalry didn’t ride to the rescue and save the Democrats from themselves? Instead of blaming women, it might be a better idea to figure out what would have helped inspire them to vote for Democratic candidates— at least on the level that they supported abortion ballot measures. Although the amendment lost in Florida, where 60% is required, it still got 6,061,672 votes (57.1%), as opposed to Kamala’s 4,676,871 votes (43.0%) and Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s 4,595,317 (42.8%). It’s worth noting that Mucarsel-Powell’s flimsy campaign was almost entirely based— when not talking about her bio— abortion. Abortion measures outpolled Kamala in every single state it appeared on th ballot, red states and blue states:

Arizona

• abortion- 1,473,423 (61.4%)

• Kamala- 1,167,898 (46.8%)

• Ruben Gallego- 1,235,291 (50.1%)

Colorado

• abortion- 1,591,124 (61.5%)

• Kamala- 1,466,125 (54.5%)

Maryland

• abortion- 1,762,580 (74.1%)

• Kamala- 1,485,253 (60.2%)

Missouri

• abortion- 1,527,096 (51.6%)

• Kamala- 1,190,806 (40.1%)

• Lucas Kunce- 1,234,159 (41.8%)

Montana

• abortion- 324,804 (57.2%)

• Kamala- 216,876 (38.0%)

• Jon Tester- 258,089 (44.9%)

Nebraska 

• abortion- 401,072 (44.7%)

• Kamala- 353,106 (38.5%)

• Dan Osborn (I)- 417,901 (46.1%)

Nevada

• abortion- 829,761 (63.8%)

• Kamala- 647,247 (47.2%)

• Jacky Rosen- 644,471 (47.6%)

New York

• abortion- 4,486,785 (61.8%)

• Kamala- 4,336,052 (55.8%)

South Dakota

• abortion- 176,726 (41.4%)

• Kamala- 146,809 (34.2%)

Writing for the Wall Street Journal this morning, Laura Kusisto and Jennifer Calfas reported that the continued support for abortion rights at the polls isn’t helping Democratic candidates— at least not at the levels needed to win elections. “Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade two years ago,” they wrote, “the issue has been a rare bright spot for Democrats, even as voters expressed hunger for change and frustration with the border and the economy. It helped propel the party to better-than-expected results in the 2022 midterms and, in prior ballot-measure fights, voters showed strong bipartisan support for abortion access in states as diverse as Ohio, Michigan and Kansas. Tuesday’s story was a more sobering one for Democrats. Abortion was on the ballot in 10 states, where large numbers of voters supported broad protections for the procedure, even as they voted for Donald Trump. Among those who said they think abortion should be legal in all or most cases, some 30% voted for Trump, according to an AP VoteCast survey.

“This is a very mixed result. I have some cognitive dissonance here because we saw enormous support for reproductive rights…juxtapositioned with a really disappointing national result,” said Deirdre Schifeling, chief political and advocacy officer for the American Civil Liberties Union.

… Voters ranked abortion as their third-most important issue, according to the AP VoteCast survey, but that trailed significantly behind the economy and immigration. Vice President Kamala Harris also garnered less robust support among women than Biden did in 2020, according to those results. 

Trump, whose three Supreme Court appointments in his first term helped seal Roe’s downfall, sought to minimize abortion’s role in the campaign by saying the issue was now a matter for the states. His efforts to find a middle ground were often fumbling, and he sometimes angered his allies in the antiabortion movement, who publicly agonized over whether to vote for him. The strategy, however, appears to have accomplished Trump’s goal of giving voters who favored abortion rights enough assurance to cast a vote for him based on other issues. 

“Clearly, Trump was not viewed as a threat to abortion rights by enough voters, which is mind boggling,” Tom Bonier, a Democratic political strategist, wrote on Twitter. 

Republicans also tried to shift the focus to transgender rights, a less broadly popular social issue. They invested heavily in advertisements about transgender players on female sports teams and prior statements Harris had made about surgeries for prisoners. 

Abortion is still widely protected in most states around the country, while it is significantly restricted in 16 others. That state-by-state patchwork is likely to remain, but the president can shift policy in ways that could have nationwide effects on access. For example, the country has seen a huge surge since Roe fell in women ordering abortion pills online without seeing a doctor in person. Antiabortion groups are pushing Trump to curtail that practice.

During the campaign, Democrats leaned into stories of women facing difficult circumstances, including rape, incest and severe pregnancy complications, which have resonated with voters across the political spectrum. Harris blanketed the airwaves in swing states with a tough ad showing Hadley Duvall, a Kentucky woman who was sexually abused by her stepfather and became pregnant when she was 12 years old. Duvall said women in her position wouldn’t be able to get an abortion in states such as Kentucky today. “Trump did this,” she said.

Duvall’s story helped Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear win re-election last year in a hard-fought campaign in red Kentucky.

Public opinion researcher Tresa Undem said her polling shows that the issue isn’t losing salience among independent voters. But she said the election was ultimately about “a cocktail of things,” including a view that Trump would be a disruptive force.