Of The 55 House Republicans Who Cast Secret Ballots Against Jordan, How Many Can Resist Bullying?

Not Many

Gym Jordan had enough votes in a secret ballot meeting of the House GOP conference to win the Republican nomination for the speakership— but far from enough to go to the floor and claim the prize. There are plenty of Republicans (55) who think Jordan is the wrong guy for the job. Jordan wants a vote on the floor tomorrow so he and his allies know who the opposition Republicans are. Over the weekend, Karoun Demirjian reported that Jordan’s strategy for rounding up the217 votes he needs will be by using an age-old political tactic: bullying, in this case “threatening right-wing retribution to any GOP lawmakers who dare oppose him.” Demirjian termed it “a pressure campaign.”

They don’t even know for sure who opposed him. But in “an extraordinary instance of Republican-on-Republican fighting that underscores the divisions that have wrought chaos inside the party, paralyzing the House of Representatives in the process, [s]everal of Jordan’s supporters [like far right psychopath Anna Paulina Luna of Florida] have posted the phone numbers of mainstream GOP lawmakers they count as holdouts, encouraging followers to flood the Capitol switchboard with calls demanding they back Jordan— or face the wrath of conservative voters as they gear up for primary season. The strategy is reminiscent of the bullying tactics that Jordan and his allies have used over the past decade to pull the GOP further to the right, and borrows a page from Trump, who is backing Jordan.”

It is also an approach that helped propel the House GOP into its current leadership crisis. Republicans last year fielded several extreme-right congressional candidates who were popular with the base but ultimately could not win general elections in competitive districts, leaving them with a razor-thin majority in the House. A new generation of hard-liners has been able to exploit the tiny governing margin, dethroning one speaker and scuttling the bid of his heir apparent.

…[B]y Saturday, right-wing activists appeared to have identified about a dozen holdouts against Jordan as top targets for their onslaught.

Amy Kremer, a neo-Nazi activist, associated with MAGA-world “posted a hit list of a dozen members on Friday, including members who have been publicly opposed to Jordan— like Ann Wagner (R-MO), John Rutherford (R-FL), Mike Rogers (R-AL), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL), Greg Murphy (R-NC) and Carlos Gimenez (R-FL), who isn’t running for reelection and probably is less susceptible to MAGAt bullying.

Saturday, Rachel Bade reported that “Despite the pressure, a group of Republicans are already privately coordinating an effort to hold firm against him. They include appropriators who don’t trust his judgment on government funding and defense hawks who don’t like that he has wavered on Pentagon budget increases. They’re not, however, a group with a strong track record of defying their colleagues, to put it mildly. Jordan has other advantages, too: Unlike Scalise, who faced pressure to drop out after one day, he has more than three days to woo his opponents before Tuesday’s expected vote. And, frankly, many members are sick and tired of the drama, eager to pick a leader and move on.

It will certainly be interesting to see how swing district Republicans who try painting themselves as mainstream conservatives, wind up voting on the floor— rather than in secret ballots— especially incumbents who are viewed as especially vulnerable and who might prefer to not be associated with empowering someone as extreme and radical as Jordan. These members are already in Democratic Party crosshairs— and being watched closely by local MAGATs:

• Mike Lawler (NY)

• Michelle Steel (CA)

• Zach Nunn (IA)

• Don Bacon (NE)

• Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR)

• David Valadao (CA)

• Monica De La Cruz (TX)

• Tom Kean (NJ)

• Nancy Mace (SC)

• Juan Ciscomani (AZ)

• Mike Garcia (CA)

• Jen Kiggans (VA)

• Bryan Steil (WI)

• Maria Salazar (FL)

• Brian Fitzpatrick (PA)

• Anthony D’Esposito (NY)

• Ken Calvert (CA)

• Ashley Hinson (IA)

• Marc Molinaro (NY)

• John James (MI)

• Rob Wittman (VA)

• Tony Gonzales (TX)

• John Duarte (CA)

• Laurel Lee (FL)

• Brandon Williams (NY)

• David Schweikert (AZ)

• Jeff Van Drew (NJ)

• Young Kim (CA)

• Nick LaLota (NY)

• Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA)

• Ryan Zinke (MT)

• Mike Turner (OH)

• Bill Huizenga (MI)

• Andrew Garbarino (NY)

Yesterday, Dan Merica and Amie Parnes looked at it from another perspective, how the GOP dysfunction is playing right into the Democrats’ hands. House Republicans are making an impression: chaotic, disorganized, fractious, backstabbing, unserious. And unworthy of being trusted as a governing party. “Biden’s advisers,” wrote Merica and Parnes, according to people close to the campaign, see significant political potential in the infighting currently gripping Capitol Hill, even if it has ground the legislative body to a halt. The stakes are high, not only does the government run out of money next month, there are also major questions about further aid to Ukraine in its war against Russia and new aid to Israel to respond to the recent deadly terror attack by Hamas.” And that’s even before anyone looks at Trump!

It's worth noting that the CNN poll released Thursday showed that just 26% of voters approved of the way congressional Republican leaders are handling their jobs (74% disapprove), while 35% approve of how Democratic leaders in Congress are handling theirs (64% disapprove). As for individual members of Congress, these are the approve/disapprove numbers:

• Kevin McCarthy- 21%/46%

• Hakeem Jeffries- 22%/25%

• Mitch McConnell- 16%/58%

• Chuck Schumer- 27%/41%

• Matt Gaetz- 14%/44%