Nebraska Independent Dan Osborn: The US Senate Is A Bunch Of Millionaires Controlled By Billionaires

Also: End Of The Road For Don Bacon?

Nebraska politics doesn’t get into the national news much. It’s a blood red state. Not counting the 1964 LBJ landslide against Barry Goldwater, the last time Nebraskans handed  a Democratic presidential a win was in the 1936 FDR reelection. Obama was trounced both times (with 41.6% in 2008 and 38.0% in 2012) as were Hillary (33.7%) and Biden (39.4%). They stopped electing Democratic governors after Ben Nelson (1994) and the last Democrat to win a Senate seat was also the very conservative Nelson (2006). Their unicameral legislature has 33 Republicans, 15 Dems and an independent. But this week, Nebraska made the it into the political news cycle twice… neither item really related to the other.

First of all, Omaha-based congressional district— in which Kamala is leading Señor T by double digits (and which gets to award an electoral vote)— is swinging away from Republican incumbent Donald Bacon, a mainstream conservative who media incorrectly likes to call “moderate.” Kyle Kondik, the managing editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball, shifted Bacon’s race from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic.” In this case, the Democrat is a pretty conservative state Senator, Tony Vargas. Bacon has out-raised Vargas $1,039,656 to $433,896. The DCCC and House Majority PAC have spent around $1.4 million helping Vargas so far, while the NRCC and the Congressional Leadership Fund have spent around $900,000 on behalf of Bacon.

Bigger news is something DWT started talking about last year— Can A Populist Beat An Old School Corporate Shill In Blood-Red Nebraska? Osborn vs Fischer. Since then, Blue America endorsed Osborn. [Please consider contributing to his campaign here.] The mainstream media is starting to recognize that this race— more than Texas, and certainly way more than Florida— is the way to keep the Senate from falling into MAGA hands if Tester loses in Montana. On Monday, ABC News reported that “A seemingly non-competitive Senate race in deeply Republican Nebraska is no longer a safe bet for two-term incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer— the dynamics jolted by the late-stage insurgence of independent Dan Osborn, who, if successful, could be the deciding factor on which party has control of the chamber, where Democrats currently hold a razor-thin 51-49 majority.” Polling shows it as the second closest Senate race in the country.

In 2021, Osborn, a Navy veteran, led employees of a Kellogg's plant in Omaha, where he had worked since 2004, on a strike that extended around the country, and he has ridden his blue-collar roots to unexpected popularity in his race against Fischer.

"He's had over 140 public events this year. He has spent a lot of time blanketing the state, criss-crossing the state, town halls, meet and greets. No event is too small. He's been really doing the kind of old-fashioned voter-by-voter engagement, and people appreciate that," a person familiar with Osborn's campaign told ABC News in explaining the candidate's appeal.

…When Fischer declined to participate in a televised debate, Osborn took a one-man show on the road, holding at least one town hall with an empty chair to represent Fischer's absence. (Fischer said she was prioritizing meeting with Nebraskans.) [ABC declined to report that that isn’t true.]

In a recent ad, Osborn, standing in a warehouse with factory equipment behind him, compares Fischer to a NASCAR driver, with the logos of corporations on her jacket, to convey that the senator is too beholden to big business donors.

With the balance of power in the Senate at stake, Osborn has repeatedly faced questions about which party he would caucus with if he makes it to the chamber.

But, unlike Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders, who caucuses with Democrats, Osborn has insisted he won't link arms with either party.

Osborn told ABC News he would "certainly, considering caucusing with either party that has control of the Senate, because that's how I'm going to best deliver for Nebraskans… I would consider caucusing with whoever has control, only if my idea fails, but certainly I want to create an independent caucus, a caucus that is going to benefit everyday people." (Osborn's campaign later told ABC News he was referring to working with both parties and still does not plan to caucus with either party.)

Some have speculated that Osborn would have to caucus with one party or another in order to be assigned to committees. There are possible ways where an independent could make it onto committees without doing so— but there is little precedent and what would actually occur could depend on the final makeup of the Senate.

Osborn told ABC News he is not too concerned about that, and said he understands that members of Congress also need to spend much time fundraising, in part to help them get committee assignments. “I’ll dial for dollars and I'll buy my committee assignments… I certainly, again, want to challenge the system. But, I don't want the people of Nebraska to suffer, either, so I'll figure that out as we go.”

Osborn also added that there's nothing "written in stone" about needing to caucus with a specific party, and if he ends up becoming a swing vote in the Senate, "that's going to give me a little bit of swagger, right? That's going to make people want to have to work with me, and I'll certainly have no issue making deals to get on committees, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it."

As for what policies he supports, Osborn told ABC News that on abortion access, he would support codifying Roe v. Wade— as an issue of individual freedoms and a way to return women's health decisions to themselves. He also supports a secure U.S. border and protecting the 2nd Amendment while allowing for "reasonable gun safety measures," according to his campaign website.

Fischer told ABC News she finds Osborn's independent label disingenuous, noting, for example, his stance on eliminating the legislative filibuster.

“Nebraskans don't know him, and when they realize who he is and what he stands for, those are beliefs that are not in tune with the majority of Nebraskans,” Fischer said in a phone interview with ABC.

Fischer herself sits on six Senate committees, including the high-profile Appropriations and Armed Services committees, and noted that Osborn's resistance to say who he might caucus within the chamber is evidence he is trying to make inroads with independent voters while not being honest about his intentions. She added that the fate of Senate control is "first and foremost" at stake in this election.

"Nebraskans are not going to be fooled by this. Nebraska is a conservative state. I am a conservative senator, and they're going to realize this guy is just out there talking about debate and town halls, and he's not talking about anything that truly impacts the lives of the people of this state," added Fischer.

National progressive organizing group Indivisible said in a recent fundraising email that it may try to indirectly support Osborn.

"This race is ripe for disruption, and Dan Osborn, running as an independent, isn't accepting any Democratic Party support... That's actually a strength in Nebraska. He needs grassroots, Nebraskans-to-Nebraskans mobilization," Indivisible Chief Campaigns Officer and co-founder Sarah Dohl wrote in a recent fundraising email.

"I really believe that our tools could tip the scales."

Randall Adkins, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska-Omaha, told ABC News that the national Democratic Party's public spurning of the race, and Osborn's stated refusal to accept Democratic Party support, is likely a strategic move.

“If they come in and help Osborn, if a Democratic group comes in and helps Osborn, that could potentially hurt him with voters that might be politically independent and likely to vote for him, because they're politically independent,” Adkins said.

While most national Democratic groups may not be openly joining the fray, the state's Nebraska Democratic Party is outwardly supporting Osborn's candidacy, including promoting him in mailings to voters and press statements— although the party says it is not formally endorsing him, out of respect for his decision to not want any party endorsements.

But that understanding came after a few bumps in the road. The state party said in May that Osborn courted the party's endorsement and ballot line, but then changed his mind. (Osborn's campaign says he never planned on running as a Democrat at any point.)

“The relationship obviously got strained when Dan changed his mind and then left us in a difficult situation. But [we] as a party, you rise above a lot of differences in politics and a lot of things that get thrown your way,” Jane Kleeb, the chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party, told ABC News.

The party had considered fielding a write-in candidate for the race; Kleeb said the party opted against that in order to allocate more resources to U.S. House and state legislature races, Kleeb said.

“He has Republicans being willing to switch parties on the ballot because they're not totally thrilled with Trump at the top... and he's a great candidate. He is a retail politics candidate— in the parades, in the town halls and the bars, he is just visiting with voters, and then they're going and talking to their friends and family,” Kleeb added.

Kevin Smith, who teaches political science at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, says Osborn's backstory is also sparking voters' interest.

“He's kind of a blue collar guy, military background, bootstrapped his way up— has successfully managed to put out an image that he's not beholding to either political party,” Smith said.

That independent image could matter in Nebraska, where the image of the Democratic Party is “pretty tattered” outside of larger urban centers; it may also tap into people's thirst for an alternative to the major parties, Smith said.

Both Smith and Adkins emphasized that Fischer's incumbency gives her an advantage, as well as the sheer number of more Republicans registered in Nebraska than Democrats or independents, and Donald Trump's popularity in much of the state.

Osborn thinks he can escape that gravity.

“Trump's got nothing to do with Osborn. I'm an independent… So why would somebody vote against the Republican and go for an independent? But I think ultimately, it's my broad stroke message. And my broad stroke message is that both parties are corrupt,” he said, adding that he also thinks people will appreciate that he is not taking corporate money and that his campaign is “powered by the people.”

Osborn said he has refunded some contributions from donors he does not want to take money from, although he declined to name anyone specifically. Recent campaign finance filings show that his campaign refunded $2,250 in donations.

Adkins added that Fischer might lose Douglas County— where Omaha is located— and some other liberal-leaning areas of the state, but could run up a strong margin by winning every other county in the state.

And Smith noted the precarious position of the Senate chamber if Osborn pulls off a "political earthquake."

“If Osborn were to pull off what really would be kind of— at least in Nebraska— a bit of a political earthquake, what does he do when it gets to the Senate? I mean, does he caucus with the Democrats? Does he act as a genuine independent and doesn't caucus with either party?” Smith asked.

…”This is sort of a new thing for Nebraska. We've not had, or we've not seen anybody run for political offices as an independent and have relative success,” Adkins said.

As for how Nebraskans are feeling about the additional attention?

"There's definitely a sense of, in one sense, it's kind of like, finally, it's nice to get some attention, because then the interest in the perspectives of Nebraskans will be folded into the national conversation," Smith said, when it's usually ignored as part of "flyover country.”

Adkins may be a a political science professor, but he’s a fool if he doesn’t remember Nebraska’s greatest and most consequential senator in history, George Norris, a New Deal-supporting Republican who represented Nebraska in the Senate for 30 years (1913- 1943), the final term as an independent.