My Guess: The Final House Tally Will Be A Dysfunctional 222-213... Until Stefanik And Waltz Leave

The Associated Press' Election Calls Are No Longer The Gold Standard

Yes, this again, only worse

AP hasn’t officially called some races yet where they should have. For example, freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-CO) already conceded to wretched Republican Gabe Evans. And as sad as you may find it, corrupt hack Ken Calvert once again fended off Blue Dog Will Rollins in purple Riverside County. Janelle Bynum ousted Republican freshman Lori Chavez-DeRemer in an Oregon district that goes from southern Portland to Bend and across to Eugene. The latest vote dumps in California have made it clear than Mike Levin and Josh Harder have been reelected and guaranteed that political newcomer George Whitesides was dispensed with Mike Garcia (who conceded Monday night). At this point, smart money would also bet on reelection for Jim Costa and a skin-of-his-teeth win by Dave Min over Scott Baugh to replace Katie Porter. I would also say that John Duarte has again defeated corrupt conservative Democrat Adam Gray— the third of the 3 worst DCCC candidates (along with Rudy Salas and John Avlon), all of whom lost. 

So what races are actually left that will determine the size of the Republican majority? Republican Nick Begich looks like he’s going to oust freshman Mary Peltola in Alaska, although most of the uncounted votes are from blue rural areas and there is ranked choice voting, so this one is hard to predict. Let’s leave that one aside. I’d guess Juan Ciscomani will be narrowly reelected in southern Arizona, beating out Kirsten Engel again, thanks to the 9,000 votes the Green candidate won (mostly in Tucson). 

That leave 4 seats on knife’s edge, one leaning towards the Republicans, a (mostly) Orange County district where incumbent Michelle Steel seems to be narrowly fending off first time New Dem Derek Tran, and the other 3 pure coin tosses:

• OH-09

Democratic incumbent Marcy Kaptur is ahead by 1,193 votes (0.32%)

• ME-02

Blue Dog incumbent Jared Golden is ahead by 726 votes (0.19%)

• IA-01

Freshman Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks is ahead by 796 votes (0.19%)— basically a mirror image of the Maine race.

Let’s say everyone who’s ahead eventually wins (which is as likely as not). That gives the GOP a 222-213 margin, pretty much exactly what it is now, completely dependent on a handful of dissidents and spoilers, vacancies, illnesses. And, though both seats are safely red— the Florida one more so than the New York one— Trump has already announced that he’s taking House members Elise Stefanik and Michael Waltz for his administration

Last night Katy Ferek reported that the near stand-off in the House will probably undercut MAGA Mike’s attempts to pass Trump’s agenda. “With Trump’s policy agenda on taxes and other priorities on the line— and his well-earned reputation for imposing party discipline— some House Republicans predict a smoother, more unified ride this time, even if they can spare to lose just a handful of defections. But with Democrats expected to be largely united against the Trump agenda, any number of issues could trip up the majority, ranging from spending cuts, to raising the debt limit, to ending the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions.”

I’m not as certain as Ferek and other political commentators are about Democratic unity. There are plenty of conservative corporate New Dems who will be foolishly looking for opportunities to show how GOP-lite and bipartisan they are— as if that helped Mondaire Jones, Susan Wild or Yadira Caraveo, not to mention the dozens of failed conservative Dems running for House seats. In any case, I’m not detecting as unified an opposition as Ferek predicted. She wrote that “Some GOP lawmakers say they believe the party can keep things on track, especially if Trump provides clear guidance to party leaders and takes a tough line with holdouts. ‘The speaker of the House has a stick, the president of the United States has a howitzer,’ said one Republican House lawmaker. Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK), a former House lawmaker who keeps close tabs on the chamber’s dynamics, said he expects Republicans to be more unified because Trump can drive the agenda. ‘Speaker Johnson will be working hand in glove with the president,’ he said. ‘You’re going to find our party is going to stick together.’ But some members, who are returning to Washington this week, indicated they wouldn’t be bossed around in the next term. Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN) said she isn’t worried about repercussions from Trump if she decides to break from Republican leaders’ orders on long-term government spending or healthcare policy. ‘I’ve always been an independent thinker and have been willing to challenge my own party,’ she said. In a statement Monday, she put it more bluntly: ‘If my party betrays the American people and does not show courage to stand up to the D.C. money machine and address the looming fiscal calamity, we do not deserve another chance.’”

Asked what kind of consequences a Republican could face for stepping out of line, one lawmaker replied: “Ask Bob Good.”

…Republican lawmakers emphasize the party has limited time to get things done before the midterm elections, when the president’s party typically loses seats. 

President Biden got several major pieces of legislation, including a $1.9 trillion Covid-19 bill, a $1 trillion infrastructure law and the climate-related Inflation Reduction Act, across the finish line during the first two years of his administration when Democrats had control of the Senate and the House.

… The first tests of the newly elected House members will come Wednesday, when new and returning GOP lawmakers vote to nominate their pick for speaker, ahead of the vote by the full House in January. Johnson is expected to easily win this initial vote, but the level of support will be closely watched. Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy won this vote in 2022 but faced 31 dissenters, presaging a drawn-out speaker vote the following January that went to 15 rounds over four days. 

House Republicans are also expected to debate this week on whether to keep the rule that enables any one person to call a vote to oust the speaker. McCarthy had lowered the bar for that measure as a concession to critics; previously, only members of leadership or caucuses could call that vote. 

Ending that rule would give Johnson more power atop the party and help stabilize the daily workings of the House. The last two years have been rocky. Under both McCarthy and Johnson, holdout Republican lawmakers voted against once-routine procedural measures to freeze the House floor. They tanked some of their own spending bills and forced leaders to rely on Democratic support to pass bills to keep the government funded and avoid partial government shutdowns. 

Democrats said Republicans shouldn’t expect their help this time.

They don't need much help— just a handful of back-stabby type Blue Dogs like Jared Golden (ME), Don Davis (NC), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA), Henry Cuellar (TX), Vicente Gonzalez (TX)... for whom selling out Democrats is as natural as rain. The 119th Congress may be dysfunctionalin a more bipartisan way than the 118th has been.