Most Democrats— Grassroots And Elites— Want Biden Gone... But Lack The Political Will To Get It Done

We're Watching A Disaster Unfold In Slow Motion

I was on a call yesterday with about 70 people, almost all of whom are major Democratic Party donors, big donors… people who give $50,000 checks if not six-figure checks, not exactly a representative groups of American voters. The topic: what to do about Biden. The overwhelming consensus was everyone would vote for Biden against Trump but that he would lose and that he “had to” get out of the race. People liked a Kamala ticket with hereditary billionaire and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker as running mate. Horrible but she’s probably a lock if Biden decides to throw in the towel, which looks increasingly unlikely. Pritzker would be a terrible look for the Democrats. Billionaires shouldn’t exist— let alone exist in the White House. 

While we were on the call, the news started breaking, no doubt coordinated by the White House press office, that the Democratic “revolt” against Biden was losing steam. Andrew Solender’s “scoop” was Biden rebels in Congress see their revolt crumbling. He wrote about “actual tears” shed among swing district incumbents who worry Biden’s unpopularity will drag them down (by keeping potential Democratic voters sitting on their hands). The mood among these swing district voters is “pretty much unanimous” that Biden has “got to step down.” Sounds like that donor call I was on. But Biden isn’t going anywhere and the House Dems’ “full caucus meeting was far less unanimous, with lawmakers both defending Biden and airing concerns about his ability to take on Trump. “One House Democrat,” wrote Solender, “who was in both meetings said: ‘Most of our caucus is still with him ... meaning he'll stay in. Which sucks for our country.’... [S]everal House Democrats who have previously raised concerns about Biden said they are now with him: ‘Whether or not I have concerns is besides the point. He is going to be our nominee, and we all have to support him,’ said Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY).’… Lloyd Doggett (D-TX), one of a half-dozen House Democrats who have urged Biden to drop out, conceded to Axios: ‘He clearly did a preemptive effort to try to discourage any questions ... with his letter.’”

It was the same story yesterday everywhere online: NBC : Biden stems Democratic defections as he insists he won’t quit 2024 race. A quartet of their reporters wrote that there’s an “overwhelming consensus” among House Dems for Biden to stay— even among at least one congressman who confided in them that he thought Biden would lose.

While he’s certainly not in the clear and many Democrats are privately and publicly grumbling that he can’t beat Donald Trump this fall, Biden seems to have staunched the bleeding as he and his allies work to shore up support for his beleaguered presidential campaign.

“If the opposition is not unified,” one House Democrat said, “then it’s advantage Biden.”

At a closed-door gathering of House Democrats on Tuesday, only a handful of Democrats privately raised concerns about Biden’s age and ability to win in November, according to sources in the room.

Punchbowl pulled no punches: “The backdrop here is brutal for House Democrats and the broader Democratic Party. It appears they’re stuck with Biden, unwilling or unable to move against him. The political picture is incredibly grim for the party.”

Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan wrote if it seemed that Biden (“fatigued, forgetful and often confused”) was “toast” last week… “done, it’s over, he needs to go now… a mix of political dynamics has changed Biden’s fortunes for the moment.” 

We wanted to explore four key factors that have given the 81-year-old Biden some breathing room.

1) Who’s against Biden and who isn’t. Not a single Senate Democrat has said that Biden should step off the party’s presidential ticket. They’ve expressed concerns and warned Biden still has to make his case to remain the Democratic nominee. But none has declared Biden is unfit for office or isn’t capable of serving another term.

And while there are a dozen or so House Democrats openly speaking out against Biden, most of his critics inside the party are doing so behind the scenes. None of the current dissenters are considered thought leaders in the House Democratic Caucus either.

2) Leadership is listening to everyone— and hearing different things. If House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer were going to move against Biden, they’d need near unanimity in their ranks that the president wasn’t fit to run. They have nothing even remotely close to that.

The Congressional Black Caucus, the most powerful bloc of House Democrats, is firmly behind Biden.

The Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ top two leaders, Reps. Nanette Barragán (D-CA) and Adriano Espaillat (D-NY), issued a statement late Monday declaring: “We stand with President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.”

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and the Squad— often critical of the president— are backing him as well. Biden called AOC over the weekend.

Jeffries made no bones Monday once again declaring his support for the president:

“I made clear the day after the debate publicly that I support President Joe Biden and the Democratic ticket. My position has not changed.”

Later, we asked Jeffries what he’d say to his colleagues who are still skeptical about backing Biden. Jeffries clearly is frustrated with the inquiries:

“When I was a lawyer, one of my favorite expressions in the courtroom was ‘Asked and answered.’ Thank you.”

“But I can tell you what is clear in this caucus is there is no light between us and the president in putting the American people first, defeating Donald Trump, and getting to work on those solutions the American people sent us here for,” added House Minority Whip Katherine Clark.

3) Moderates are caught between their own political survival and party loyalty. Moderate and vulnerable red-state Democrats aren’t yet coming out in droves calling for Biden to give it up. While these lawmakers will do whatever it takes to win their own races, they also want to stay somewhat loyal to the party and to Biden. Plus, it’s a big deal to dump a sitting president like this.

That’s part of what’s keeping Democrats like Sens. Jon Tester (MT), Sherrod Brown (OH) and others from demanding Biden step aside. Instead, they’re saying it’s valid to question Biden’s ability to defeat Trump. Tellingly, however, these vulnerable Democrats aren’t saying what they think Biden should do to reassure them.

But while this may be a good stall tactic before national attention shifts to the GOP convention next week, Biden’s defenders worry that Democrats’ own amplification of his problems is only serving to weaken the president further.

Take Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN), for example. Smith said she has “a lot of concerns” about Biden and that Democrats should have a “robust discussion about what comes next.”

Yet when we asked if Smith is concerned that the discussion itself is just feeding into the GOP attacks on Biden and hurting his ability to defeat Trump, she said people should be talking about how Trump is a liar, a “convicted felon” and wants to “strip away women’s reproductive freedoms.”

4) It’s hard to dump a president. Here’s the reality— it would be really difficult to boot Biden off the ticket. First of all, Biden is dug in very deep. Biden has said repeatedly that he won’t drop out of the race.

Then there are a plethora of questions about ballot access and access to the Biden campaign’s hundreds of millions of dollars in contributions.

Added to that is the fact that millions of voters have voted for Biden in primaries. And elected Democrats aren’t willing to buck them.

Here’s CBC Chair Steven Horsford of Nevada:

“Yes, I’m the chair of the Black Caucus, but I represent one of the most diverse districts in the country. And overwhelmingly those voters that I’ve heard from… have said, President Joe Biden is our nominee.”

There’s negative enthusiasm for Biden with virtually everyone I talk with. If the party can't get him off the ticket... well, how weak and pathetic is the Democratic Party? Too weak to get anything accomplished that they claim to be fighting for?

Last week YouGov polled Democrats on some of their leaders’ favorability:

• Biden- 78%

• Kamala- 78%

• Bernie-76%

• Elizabeth Warren- 71%

• AOC- 66%

• Pete Buttigieg- 63%

• Gavin Newsom- 60%

• Raphael Warnock- 52%

• Gretchen Whitmer- 50%

But asked if Biden should withdraw, only 51% of those same Democrats said yes and 57% said they would be more likely to vote for another Democrat than Biden.

The absolute worst thing the Democrats had to avoid was for the election to turn into a referendum on Biden instead of on Trump— and that’s exactly what’s happened. Democrats on Capitol Hill are completely worthless— knowing Biden is toxic but unwilling to protect the country while Biden stupidly, disgustingly runs out the clock. Most Democrats I'm talking to in Congress sound something like what Michael Bennet said on CNN last night (below), although almost none want to say so publicly. Biden is leading the country, not to even mention the Democratic Party, right over a cliff. He will be remembered in history as the man responsible for handing America over to fascism, while yelling about passing basically inconsequential funding bills. And he'll be cursed down through the generations. This morning Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza reported that “while the almost Machiavellian pressure campaign has at least temporarily muzzled the Biden doubters, it has hardly alleviated their concerns: Most Democrats we’ve spoken to remain 100 percent convinced Biden will lose to Trump, and many privately want him to gracefully bow out— even some who are publicly supporting him as the nominee.” They also reported that Cook moved 6 states away from the Biden column— Arizona, Georgia and Nevada went from toss up to lean Trump and Minnesota, New Hampshire and NE-02 (Omaha) went from Likely Dem to lean Dem. And this is absolutely horrifying: