McCarthy vs Gaetz: Far From Over... And A Mortal Threat To The Flimsy Republican House Majority

Gaetz Isn't Finished Humiliating McCarthy

You knew it was coming— McCarthy and Gaetz fighting it out for influence and power on the primary front. And yesterday, Gary Fineout and Madison Fernandez started defining the parameters of what could be a very bloody battlefield. They painted Gaetz as the villain and pointed to his role in upending establishment favorite Craig Riedel in the OH-09 race to oust Marcy Kaptur is a carefully gerrymandered Republican-leaning seat. Crackpot MAGAt— and loser— J.R. Majewsky, who Kaptur thrashed in 2022, will probably be the party candidate again thanks to Gaetz. Party bosses are fuming as they watch their chances to win the seat slip away.

Nor is that the only instance of Gaetz getting behind extremist candidates who can win primaries against establishment candidates, and then go on to lose general elections. “Gaetz,” they wrote, “has also voiced support for former Nevada state Sen. Elizabeth Helgelien, who’s running to the right in Nevada’s 3rd District, and for Darren Bailey, an unsuccessful 2022 Illinois gubernatorial candidate who is now challenging Republican Rep. Mike Bost in IL-12. McCarthy threw his weight around in competitive races early in the 2024 cycle, including endorsing state Rep. Heidi Kasama in NV-03 and former state Rep. Craig Riedel in OH-09, both of which are top targets for national Republicans. McCarthy has also boosted Bost’s reelection bid and spoken out against Bailey for challenging the incumbent.” What Will MAGA Mike do about a situation that could further divide his already bitterly divided conference?

With McCarthy retiring— just months after being removed— Gaetz is going after some of his chosen candidates.

Candidate quality nearly cost Republicans the House majority in 2022, with some far-right candidates losing key races. Majewski was one of those candidates, plagued by ads from Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur hitting him as an “extremist” for being on the Capitol grounds on Jan. 6, 2021…

IL-12 is a safe Republican district, so the primary victor will likely have a smooth path to the general election— although a messy primary is not a good look for Republicans, who are still trying to rehabilitate their image after the speakership drama earlier this year. But OH-09 and NV-03 are both battlegrounds, and losses in such districts could cost the party its majority.

Gaetz brushed aside questions about backing conservative Republicans who may go on to lose the general election.

“Primaries are a really important part of the political process,” he said. “It shows the direction the party is moving.”

Riedel was a top recruit to take on Kaptur, earning the endorsement of House leadership over the summer. But after an audio clip surfaced of him calling former President Donald Trump “arrogant” and saying the party needs to “go in a different direction,” he faces a difficult primary — one that could end up elevating Majewski anyway.

Gaetz endorsed Majewski in November and this month shared the audio clip of Riedel, writing that he is a “RINO never-Trumper.” In the following days, Riedel bled support. Rep. Max Miller rescinded his endorsement because of his comments. Sen. J.D. Vance announced his backing of Majewski, as did Secretary of State Frank LaRose.

After the clip was shared, Riedel endorsed Trump and blamed Gaetz for pulling a “stunt.” (Gaetz has denied involvement in the recording.) Republican leadership then scrambled to recruit state Rep. Derek Merrin for the race. With Riedel staying in, there’s a possibility that Merrin and Riedel will split the anti-Majewski vote and send him to the general election — a scenario similar to what happened last year.

The incident demonstrates the domino effect Gaetz’s involvement can have, given his prominence— and the headache it can cause national Republicans.

Gaetz said he does not normally endorse candidates until they’re on the ballot, an exception he made for Majewski before Ohio’s Dec. 20 filing deadline because he said he “got totally screwed by the Air Force.” A report from The Associated Press a month before the 2022 election said Majewski, an Air Force veteran, never deployed to Afghanistan as he had suggested, and that he also mischaracterized his professional career. That caused national Republicans to pull their support from him. Majewski lost to Kaptur by 13 points in 2022.

“We’re proud to have the endorsement of Congressman Gaetz and many of his colleagues on the Hill and I look forward to working alongside these America First leaders to tackle the issues important to the people of Ohio’s 9th including energy dominance and securing the border,” Majewski said in a statement.

Gaetz drew a distinction between an endorsement and showing support for a candidate, like he did for Bailey in his race against Bost. After Rep. Mary Miller (R-IL) endorsed Bailey, Gaetz shared it on Twitter, writing “Bailey > Bost.” Gaetz continued to vocally support Bailey, even without formally endorsing him. (There were high tensions between Gaetz and Bost during the fight for the speakership.)

Similarly, Gaetz shared a video of Helgelien speaking on her border policies, urging his followers to “send backup like this.” He also reshared her launch video and accompanying fundraising plea.

Another way to look this, though not explored by Fineout and Fernandez is to look at how McCarthy will deploy the approximately $11 million he has left in his leadership PAC. Several Gaetz allies— especially Nancy Mace (R-SC), Tim Burchett (R-TN) and Bob Good (R-VA), all of whom voted to oust McCarthy— could find themselves with well-financed primary opponents, although Good’s opponent, John McGuire, is running in the incredibly narrow lane to Good’s right, so that might be awkward. In any case, we’ll see when the Gaetz-McCarthy battle really breaks out into public view and becomes popcorn-worthy.