McCarthy's GOP Ransom Note To America

Crackpot Tim Burchett (R-TN) is more concerned with UFOs than default

The Republican default is just a few months away— possibly in early June because of slower tax receipts. McCarthy was having some unexpected problems finalizing his ransom note but yesterday it passed 217-215, 2 absent Democrats (Scott Peters and Bonnie Watson Coleman) making it possible despite McCarthy's inability to reach 218. He lost 4 Republicans-- Andy Biggs (AZ), Tim Burchett (TN), Ken Buck (CO) and Matt Gaetz (FL). Tuesday he had pledged to pass the “budget” with no negotiations on any of the points of contention inside his own conference. But a few hours later, on Tuesday night, he counted the votes and saw that there is no way to pass the thing so he told the House Rules Committee Republicans to change the stuff being demanded by the Iowans (subsidies for ethanol), for the facsists (stricter work requirements for social safety net programs, like food stamps) and to rescind funding from the Inflation Reduction Act for green building construction and Energy Department loan guarantees. Tennessee crackpot Tim Burchett said he doesn’t care what they change, he would be a firm NO and wants to trigger a default. Among the others who were still refusing to confirm they’d vote for McCarthy’s Limit, Save, Grow Act were Gaetz and Biggs, plus Scott Perry (PA), Bob Good (VA), Eli Crane (AZ), professional caver Nancy Mace (SC) and Montana Senate candidate Matt Rosendale. Politico referred to the episode as McCarthy renegotiates GOP debt bill in dead of night, noted it satisfied “more than a dozen disgruntled members” and called the plan “back on track.”

Wednesday morning Patriotic Millionaires tweeted this graphic, noting “The GOP Budget couldn't have laid out their priorities any more clearly. They want to cut IRS enforcement to let wealthy criminal tax cheats get away with not paying $120 billion in taxes. And they want to pay for it by making it harder for the poor to get food and health care.” Not counting accelerating the Climate Crisis, that pretty much lays out the whole GOP plan.

Annie Karni termed what Schumer is calling the “Default On America Act” (Dead On Arrival) McCarthy’s first big test, the end of his honeymoon. Biden was right to term it an unserious MAGA agenda, “recklessly austere and fiscally misguided.” Karni noted that “for McCarthy, who has bent over backward to try to placate the anti-spending hard right without alienating more mainstream Republicans whose seats could be at risk if they embrace draconian cuts, even muscling through a doomed bill would count as an accomplishment.”

Having taken the position that Republicans will not raise the debt limit without a fiscal overhaul and demanded that Mr. Biden negotiate the terms, the speaker must now show that he can marshal the votes to push through a deal.

That includes soliciting “yes” votes from right-wing members who have never before voted to increase the debt ceiling and take pride in that fact. Failing to do so would represent a monumental setback for Republicans and McCarthy’s ability to lead them. On Tuesday night and early into Wednesday morning, Mr. McCarthy was still making modifications and concessions on the bill to try to win over holdouts and nail down the votes.

“This is the biggest moment because it’s the first real hard thing he’s had to do,” said Brendan Buck, who served as a top adviser to the previous two Republican speakers, Paul Ryan and John Boehner. “The thing that matters the most with this vote is it’s a demonstration of how strong he is with his own members as he goes into those negotiations.”

Since winning his gavel, McCarthy has enjoyed a relatively stable stretch in the job he has long coveted.

House Republicans have spent much of the year passing partisan messaging bills on social issues that have no chance of becoming law, but help rally the party’s base and have helped McCarthy build good will with his members.

He has held off on more contentious matters such as an immigration crackdown that has met resistance among some mainstream Republicans in his ranks, and the presentation of a budget, which GOP leaders abandoned amid disagreements about timing and substance, including how steeply to cut spending.

“It was by design, a period of putting points on the board and making people feel good to put them in a good mood for the inevitable crap sandwich they’re going to have to swallow,” when they are asked to cast more difficult votes, Buck said.

…But the easy days are over.

Gaetz said on Monday that he was a “no” vote on the debt ceiling without tighter work requirements for social programs, a change that some Republicans from politically competitive districts oppose and that McCarthy had originally said was not possible. But after late-night wrangling on Tuesday, McCarthy appeared to have acquiesced at least in part, moving up the imposition of stricter requirements by a year, to 2024.

Buck said that if McCarthy were able to pass his debt ceiling bill, even one that is little more than a starting point for a negotiation with Biden, “it would be extremely impressive, and it would underscore that he’s got a pretty solid base of trust among members— more so than I would have expected at this point.”

Some of McCarthy’s allies argue his brutal week of public humiliation to become speaker has prepared him for this moment.

“I think deep down he thinks the 15 votes was good,” said former Speaker Newt Gingrich. “It showed he was tough. He could take heat and do it pretty cheerfully. It allowed his members to get a lot of the poison out.”

Gingrich, the only modern-day former Republican speaker whom McCarthy seeks to emulate, said he has advised his successor to push ahead with the debt ceiling bill even if he is short a few votes when he walks onto the floor, the better to pressure any wavering colleagues to put their reservations aside and support it.

“The last five votes, you’re standing there begging, Gingrich said he has told McCarthy of his own experience with tough bills. “But there’s pressure to not let the team down.”

Right after the vote, Mark Takano (D-CA), Ranking Member of the House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs, released the following statement after voting NO: “Speaker Kevin McCarthy and House Republicans’ extreme debt ceiling proposal puts our social safety net programs, our nation’s economic future, and the global economy into calamitous peril. Make no mistake— by proposing these draconian cuts, House Republicans are intentionally driving the United States towards an unprecedented default. And in the process, House Republicans are holding veterans hostage. They are trying to cut VA funding which would mean 30 million fewer veteran healthcare visits and cut 81,000 VA employees who help veterans access the benefits they earned— an attempt to balance the federal budget on the backs of our veterans. We owe it to our nation’s veterans to honorably recognize their service— not subject them to political brinksmanship with potentially disastrous consequences. With this bill, Republicans have shown the American people that they are unwilling to be responsible stewards of our economy or allies to our veterans. I remain committed to defending the benefits our veterans and my constituents in Riverside have earned. Let’s do the right thing for them, and the American people, and pass a clean debt limit increase that protects veterans’ benefits and our economy.” Expect plenty of similar statements from Democrats today.

Back to the Republicans accelerating the Climate Crisis for a moment-- Data for Progress released a poll yesterday showing that although a majority of Republicans are fine with rolling back the clean energy plan Congress passed, normal Americans feel very differently about it. 71% of voters report that they would be upset if Congress made it more expensive for American families to make their homes energy-efficient, while 51% also say they would be upset if Republicans rolled back key tax credits and financial incentives for clean energy production and job growth.

Meanwhile, the same poll shows that a plurality of voters (by a +6-point margin) also say that Republicans should not roll back the key components of the Inflation Reduction Act. This includes Democrats by a +53-point margin and Independents by a +16-point margin.

But McCarthy and his 4-seat majority in the House are determined to move ahead with his Climate Crisis plans regardless of what the voters-- not to mention Mother Nature-- think. They feel secure that in their gerrymandered little districts, there will be no price to pay... and that members in swing districts will just have to fend for themselves and hope for the best.

Before dawn today, a team of Politico writers reported that Democrats are ready to pounce, hitching vulnerable Republicans who backed McCarthy’s extreme bill yesterday. ‘I think the American people are pretty upset with what’s happening, and they want to see governance work, and Republicans are going to be held accountable for not governing,’ DCCC chair Suzan DelBene (D-WA) said in an interview. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) set the tone at the beginning of the week, privately telling Democrats in a leadership meeting that the debt vote could be framed to the American people in the same way liberals responded to Republican efforts to privatize Social Security, repeal Obamacare and pass the 2017 tax cut package, according to a person familiar with his remarks. ‘We’re focused on doing the right thing by the American people, which is to make sure we avoid a dangerous default and ensure that America pays its bills,’ he said Wednesday in a brief interview. Democratic groups are already gearing up to knock Republicans over the debt standoff. The DCCC said vulnerable Republicans were ‘helping build the case against themselves’ and their re-election, and House Majority PAC singled out frontline Republicans who voted for the bill.”

The Republicans who voted for passage who are most likely to lose significant votes because of it are (along with their 2022 win numbers):

• David Schweikert (AZ)- 50.44%

• Juan Ciscomani (AZ)- 50.7%

• Kevin Kiley (CA)- 53.6%

• John Duarte (CA)- 50.21%

• David Valadao (CA)- 51.5%

• Mike Garcia (CA)- 53.2%

• Young Kim (CA)- 56.8%

• Ken Calvert (CA)- 52.3%

• Michelle Steel (CA)- 52.4%

• Lauren Boebert (CO)- 50.08%

• Anna Paulina Luna (FL)- 53.1%

• Laurel Lee (FL)- 58.5%

• Maria Salazar (FL)- 57.3%

• Mariannette Miller Meeks (IA)- 53.4%

• Ashley Hinson (IA)- 54.1%

• Zach Nunn (IA)- 50.35%

• Bill Huizenga (MI)- 54.4%

• John James (MI)- 48.8%

• Ann Wagner (MO)- 54.9%

• Richard Hudson (NC)- 56.5%

• Don Bacon (NE)- 51.3%

• Jeff Van Drew (NJ)- 58.9%

• Tom Kean (NJ)- 51.4%

• Nick LaLota (NY)- 55.5%

• Andrew Garbarino (NY)- 60.7%

• George Santos (NY)- 53.8%

• Anthony D’Esposito (NY)- 51.8%

• Mike Lawler (NY)- 50.32%

• Marc Molinaro (NY)- 50.8%

• Brandon Williams (NY)- 50.49%

• Mike Turner (OH)- 61.7%

• Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR)- 51.0%

• Brian Fitzpatrick (PA)- 54.9%

• Scott Perry (PA)- 53.8%

• Nancy Mace (SC)- 56.5%

• Andy Ogles (TN)- 55.8%

• Monica De La Cruz (TX)- 53.3%

• Tony Gonzales (TX)- 55.9%

• Rob Wittman (VA)- 56.0%

• Jen Kiggans (VA)- 51.7%

• Bryan Steil (WI)- 54.1%

• Derrick Van Orden (WI)- 51.9%