Legitimate Hope Or Delusion? Could Lauren Boebert Actually Be Defeated For Reelection?

It looks next to impossible for QAnon's Lauren Boebert— or any other Republican, no matter how odious— to be defeated in Colorado’s newly-redrawn third congressional district, which looks like it was created as a dumping ground for Republicans in the western part of the state. Previously, it was pretty safe for Republicans, with an R+12 partisan lean— that gave Trump a 51.6% to 46.1% win over Biden and gave Lauren Boebert a 51.4% to 45.2% reelection win over well-financed Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush— but now the partisan lean is R+15. Example, Routt County, which Bush took 10,273 (61.9%) to 5,930 (35.7%) is no longer part of the district. FiveThirtyEight’s current forecast is that Boebert will beat Democrat Adam Frisch 57.7% to 42.3%.

And yet… reporting from Denver for Axios this morning, John Frank offered a little glimmer of hope that one of the worst of the brainless fascists in Congress might actually be defeated. I’ll get to that in a second but first the finances. Boebert has raised $5,298,288 and still has $2,265,043 to spend. Frisch has raised $1,145,289 and is going into the final lap with $570,522. A new poll, just released by Keating Research, a Democratic firm but one of the most accurate pollsters in Colorado, shows a 5 point swing towards Frisch into margin or error territory— from 49-42% in July to 47-45% now.

As you might guess, unaffiliated voters “strongly dislike Boebert, who's known for her Christian nationalist rhetoric, opposition to bipartisan legislation, and lighting rod remarks about guns and immigration. Those voters are shifting toward Frisch as the election progresses, pollsters said.” Chris Keating, head of the firm told Axios this morning that “With Boebert under 50%, that means she is vulnerable to losing this race.”

I’ve never spoken with Frisch and don’t know much about him other than he’s a small businessman, Democrat committed to finding solutions to environmental issues and, most important, that he’s not Lauren Boebert. Looking through the issues pages of his campaign website, he seems like a pretty standard, garden variety Democrat. I wouldn’t expect much from him in solving the country’s core problems, but he’d likely vote the right way on just about everything and right now would help slow the very real and very dangerous slide towards the kind of fascism Lauren Boebert personifies and exacerbates. One thing I would bet on-- unlike his opponent, he won't be giving tours of the Capitol to violent domestic terrorists and insurrectionists.