Last Week Trump's Likelihood Of A Prison Sentence Advanced Several Steps

Trump's Gag Order In The Federal Case Was Re-Imposed Yesterday

What was Señor Trumpanzee freaking out over this weekend? All the regular gaslighting, manipulation of the MAGA masses and his myriad bullshit grievances, of course… plus Ivanka being forced-- against her will-- to testify in one of his court cases. That could prove very awkward. And it’s what inspired this insane and hysterical— and false— rant on Saturday:

At that was an hour after this other deranged fit attacking Judge Engoron, who had just fined him another $10,000 for defying violating a partial gag order. (Trump has paid that and the earlier $5,000 fine.) There’s a lot of exciting to see if the next fine will be an increase of $5,000— like the second one was— or a doubling of the second fine (so $20,000). None of these fines mean anything to Trump financially, although he is a cheapskate and hates to lose, but if he keeps it up and the judge keeps ratcheting up the amounts, at some point Trump may actually start acting like a normal defendant. It will be interesting to see how he reacts the the gag order being reimposed by Chutkan last night.

Besides he has far worse to be worried about than Ivanka testifying at his New York civil case. Financial Times correspondents Stefania Palma and Joe Miller reported that Trump is being increasingly hemmed in by plea deals in his criminal cases. “In the span of just one week,” they wrote, “three former lawyers flipped on Donald Trump in a sweeping criminal case alleging a conspiracy to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in the state of Georgia. That string of dramatic U-turns has turned some of Trump’s most high-profile allies, including former federal prosecutor Sidney Powell, into potential liabilities for the ex-president. Jenna Ellis and Kenneth Chesebro, two former Trump campaign attorneys, also pleaded guilty.”

It is still unclear if the lawyers, who have all agreed to testify truthfully in future proceedings, will seek to incriminate Trump in the Georgia case, legal experts said. But their deals could unleash a chain of similar agreements, increasing the number of potential witnesses prosecutors have on their side as they pursue the former president. CNN reported this week that at least six more of his 18 co-defendants in the Georgia case are in talks for plea deals.

“There’s definitely a momentum in the Fulton County case and the momentum is very much in the district attorney’s favour,” said Clark Cunningham, law professor at Georgia State University. “If anything, the pace keeps picking up.”

Fulton county district attorney Fani Willis has relied on Georgia’s expansive racketeering laws in crafting the indictment, which captures a broad swath of alleged criminal activity and a large set of defendants featuring Trump’s most prominent lawyers and advisers in an alleged conspiracy with the former president at the centre.

“You flip one defendant, they can testify against another defendant . . . it is sometimes compared to dominoes,” said Barbara McQuade, a former US attorney.

Renato Mariotti, former federal prosecutor, said one of the other lawyers charged in the Georgia case, who include Rudy Giuliani and John Eastman— two of the most vocal champions of the unsuccessful legal theories that Trump was cheated out of an election win— could be “the next domino to fall.”

In particular, Cunningham said, Ellis is “almost certainly a potentially damaging witness against Giuliani.” She appeared alongside the former New York City mayor at a hearing at the Georgia state capitol following the 2020 polls.

“So if her cooperation is enough to force Giuliani to cooperate, then that’s probably very bad for Trump because if there’s anybody who can incriminate him, it’s probably Giuliani,” Cunningham added.

Trump is expected to argue he merely followed advice from his lawyers— a theory that could be bolstered by the guilty pleas in Georgia, should he argue that his former counsel had acknowledged wrongdoing.

But Daniel Richman, professor at Columbia Law School, said that if the lawyers testified they were misled or did not know all the facts, that “really weakens that defence”. It will come down to whether they “are ready, willing and able to give serious testimony that implicates Trump,” he added.

Powell, Ellis and Chesebro will serve probation rather than jail time under what analysts deemed lenient agreements that may signify the trio’s high value as witnesses— or prosecutors’ eagerness to cut down on the case’s large number of defendants.

The guilty pleas may also be a boon for a separate federal criminal case against Trump over the 2020 election, which is being overseen by special counsel Jack Smith— if Smith can convince cooperating witnesses in Georgia to assist with his case.

On Sunday morning, Norman Eisen and Amy Copeland reported that Jenna Ellis, particularly, could become a star witness against Trump, having already “offered a powerful repudiation of the ‘Big Lie’ that could potentially cut the legs out from under Donald Trump’s defense… Ellis admitted that the allegations of election fraud she peddled as an advocate for the effort to overturn the 2020 election were false. Two other plea deals, from Kenneth Chesebro and Sidney Powell, have been important, but Ellis is in a unique position to aid prosecutors in the Georgia case and possibly even the parallel federal one— as well as Trump’s opponents in the court of public opinion.”

Her felony guilty plea included aiding and abetting criminal behavior of other Trump co-defendants, like Giuliani, with made uncharges about voter fraud that never happened and that they knew never happened— like “10,315 or more dead people voted” in Georgia, “at least 96,000 mail-in ballots were counted” erroneously and “2,506 felons voted illegally.” Those are all lies that Trump, Giuliani and the rest of the scumbags invented as part of their attempted coup, which caused irreparable damages, including deaths and serious tears in the U.S. social fabric.

Unlike Chesebro and Powell, in pleading guilty Ellis spoke in detail about her “responsibilities as a lawyer.” Tearing up, she talked about the due diligence that “I did not do but should have done” and her “deep remorse for those failures of mine.” The judge, a tough former prosecutor, thanked her for sharing that and noted how unusual it was for a defendant to do so.

Trials are about the evidence and the law. But they are also theater, and the jury is the audience. In this case, the jury is not the only audience— the Georgia trials will be televised, so many Americans will also be tuned in. Ellis is poised to be a potent weapon against Trump in the courtroom and on TVs.

That is bad news for her former co-defendants— above all, Giuliani and Trump. Ellis was most closely associated with Giuliani, appearing by his side in Georgia and across the country. If her court appearance last week is any indication, she will be a compelling guide to his alleged misconduct. She will also add to what is known about it; she and Giuliani undoubtedly had many conversations that are not yet public and that will inform the jury. And because Giuliani was the senior lawyer on the case, her pointed statement that she was misled by attorneys “with many more years of experience” hits him directly.

Ellis’ likely trial testimony will also hit Trump hard. She has now effectively repudiated his claims that he won the election— an argument that is expected to be a centerpiece of his trial defense. Coming from a formerly outspoken MAGA champion, her disagreement has the potential to resonate with jurors.

Italy builds on substantial other evidence against the former president, which includes voluminous witness testimony collected by the House Jan. 6 committee indicating that many advisers told him the election was not stolen— and that in private he repeatedly admitted as much.

Ellis’ testimony may also compromise one of Trump’s main defenses. He has made clear he intends to claim he relied on advice of counsel. But that defense is available only if the lawyers are not part of the alleged crimes. Ellis’ plea puts her squarely within the conspiracy, as do those of Chesebro and Powell. That will hamper Trump’s effort to present a reliance-on-counsel defense.

In comparing Ellis to the two other lawyers who pleaded guilty, it is also critical to note that she is promising full cooperation with Willis. Chesebro and Powell have important contributions to make to the prosecution, but they merely agreed to provide documents, preview their testimony and testify truthfully if called.

Ellis took the additional step of also agreeing “to fully cooperate with prosecutors,” which could include doing interviews with prosecutors, “appearing for evidentiary hearings, and assisting in pretrial matters.”

To our knowledge, Ellis is not yet cooperating with prosecutors in the federal case led by the special counsel Jack Smith, but if she does, she would have a comparative advantage for the prosecution over Chesebro and Powell: They are identified as unindicted co-conspirators in that case and would be more problematic for Smith to deal with. He may not, for example, be willing to immunize them should they assert their privilege against self-incrimination, since that would hamper prosecuting them. But because he has not named Ellis among Trump’s alleged federal co-conspirators, he may feel more free to extend immunity to secure her valuable testimony. (He has reportedly done just that with Mark Meadows, a former Trump White House chief of staff.)

Ellis’ guilty plea may also have political reverberations. It is riveting to see a MAGA champion who helped lead the election assault tearfully admitting she and that effort misled the American people. Her court appearance was live-streamed and repeated in a loop on television and social media.

Looking ahead in the Georgia case, the judge just got back the five months that he had set aside for the Chesebro and Powell trial. Even if Trump manages to postpone appearing before a Georgia jury during that window, the trial of other defendants could begin within it— and certainly during 2024. That means Ellis and other existing and potential witnesses against Trump will likely be critical not only in the legal arena, but the political one.

WithTrump showing no signs of backing down from his claims of 2020 election fraud and a new election upon us, Ellis’ plea— like the televised Jan. 6 committee testimony of Cassidy Hutchinson, another Trump insider who turned on him with powerful effect— could be a potential turning point in the court of public opinion. When Trump’s lies are repeated in the future, in whatever venue, expect to see Ellis often.