Kamala’s Choice Of A Running Mate Will Give Us Tremendous Insight Into Her Administration

Will Her Choice Unify Dems Or Placate Conservatives With A Sister Soulja Moment?

Not only do I have no inside information, I don’t even have a favorite among the names the media has been reporting as frontrunners. There are certainly no movement progressives in the batch, just garden variety, establishment corporate careerist Democrats— no one who would be likely to ever opt for a bold, break-the-mold solution to anything… no one who’s likely to ever pick MMT over Austerity, for example. Although... Bernie and Pramila endorsed Walz yesterday.

There are some I like less than the others. Gina Raimondo, who, thankfully, is the least likely to be picked, is the worst of the lot. And, to put it mildly, I’ve never been a fan of Mayo Pete. They may all be a pack of Zionists but no one as much as Josh Shapiro. And I’d think Mark Kelly’s anti-labor vote against the PRO-Act would be disqualifying… at least in my world. I haven’t followed Tim Walz closely since he became governor of Minnesota but he seems to have been a much better governor than he was a congressman, where he was, at all times, a tepid, Republican-lite Blue Dog. I have no delusions about Andy Beshear or Roy Cooper but if I have to pick from this bunch, I’d probably role the dice on Walz or one of those two.

It’s reasonable to imagine that Cooper might bring North Carolina’s 16 electoral vote and maybe held with Virginia’s 13 and Georgia’s 16, that Kelly could help nail down Arizona’s 11 electoral votes, maybe help with Nevada’s 6 and that Shapiro could deliver Pennsylvania’s 19 (though possibly make it harder to score Michigan’s 15 because of the widely shared perception that he’s… well, “Genocide Josh.” And even fellow Pennsylvania genocidal maniac, John Fetterman, is reported to have privately warned Kamala last week that Shapiro is a bad idea.

I don’t watch a lot of MSNBC but when I go upstairs to make the bed or get dressed on take a nap, it’s usually on and there always seems to be some conservative ex-Republican on the air either predicting or cheerleading for Shapiro. That should be an alarm. Two more alarms yesterday: Nate Silver and, worse, sleazebag No Labels honcho Mark Penn, were all-in on Shapiro.

Penn is what I would call as pure a negative indicator as you’ll find anywhere. His NY Times OpEd yesterday didn’t persuade me otherwise, just reminded me of what I don’t like about The Times. To Penn— as to most Republicans and other conservatives— Kamala is a leftist, even though any look at her career indicates that’s never been the case. She blows with the wind and that’s likely the kind of president she’ll be. 

Very likely on salary from the Trump team, Penn warned that she won’t “win Electoral College swing states and the presidency unless she convinces voters that her administration will share the sort of centrist policies and leadership that were essential to the victories of Biden, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. And an emphatic and persuasive remedy to that problem would be to pick Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania as her running mate. Shapiro, who is unpopular with many progressives over energy policy, school choice and other issues, would send a signal that Harris is not captive to the left and that she puts experience ahead of ideology. Choosing him would add an experienced governor from a swing state who could appeal to many moderate Democrats, independents and some Nikki Haley voters on a multitude of key issues. He would provide balance to the ticket and underscore that there is a place for moderates in today’s Democratic Party.”

As you’d expect from Penn, it gets worse. “For those who look at politics as a mosaic of identities,” [conservatives like himself do; progressives don’t] would also reassure Jewish voters— long a key part of winning Democratic voter coalitions— at a time when many of them see hostility and antisemitism coming from some in the far left of the party. Now, some pundits and analysts of presidents and their running mates will wonder if adding an observant Jew to a ticket headed by a Black woman is a ticket to nowhere. But the elections of Obama and now the surge of Harris suggest that America is a lot more focused on party unity and stopping Donald Trump than on race and religion. Remember that Joe Lieberman was the first Jewish vice-presidential nominee, in 2000, and he deepened the heft, experience and integrity of the ticket led by Al Gore.” [Another view of that it that Gore lost because he picked Lieberman, not because he was Jewish but because he was too conservative for many Democrats.]

Pennsylvania, of course, is a critical battleground state and a must-win for the Harris ticket. With its 19 electoral votes toward a needed 270, the state has swung back and forth recently, going for Trump in 2016 by 44,000 votes and for Biden in 2020 by about 82,000 votes— razor-thin margins of victory that show that the state can be flipped easily with the right messengers and message.

While the history of governors helping to deliver their states is mixed, Shapiro has an appeal outside of geography— one recent poll found that 18 percent more Pennsylvania voters approve than disapprove of his job as governor— because he is capable of actually bringing together a broad coalition of voters. He soundly defeated his Republican opponent for governor in 2022 by nearly 15 percentage points.

Shapiro believes in school choice, which runs counter to one of the Democrats’ biggest support groups— the teachers unions (though he ultimately vetoed a school voucher bill he had initially supported). Randi Weingarten, the president of the American Federation of Teachers, is a fixture of the Democratic establishment, but her positions are unpopular with many other Americans [and certainly with scumbags like Penn]— including those who believe that the Covid school shutdowns were dragged out unnecessarily. Despite the union’s opposition, school choice is supported by 71 percent of Americans, according to a 2023 poll by RealClear Opinion Research. [Other more credible polls show the exact opposite.] Standing up to the unions by picking Shapiro would send a signal that Harris is not in their pocket— though, at the same time, it is also a likely reason he may not be selected.

[Penn forgot to identify himself as Jewish.] The governor would be the highest-ranking Jewish official in U.S. history. He has supported Israel and has been strongly critical of the campus protests, blasting the antisemitism on display at many of those demonstrations. Arab American leaders like James Zogby have suggested he could “create a problem" for Harris with some voters. His selection would be another push against the left wing of the Democratic Party that has taken a strong position against America’s ally. But about 3 percent of Americans are Jewish [not true— 2.07% is the accurate number], and about 1 percent are Muslim [1.34%], according to 2022 data from the Public Religion Research Institute; Jews have some of the highest percentages of voting, and only 2 percent consider Israel a top issue. I think Shapiro’s ideology, not his religion, is what creates the real push and pull over his potential nomination— his religion is being used as an excuse by those who want to keep a moderate off the ticket.

Independent voters overwhelmingly favor Israel over Hamas, as did 80 percent of Americans, according to a July Harvard Center for American Political Studies -Harris Poll, which I co-directed. While young people, who have the lowest propensity to vote, were split on the issue, older people supported Israel 93 percent to 7 percent, and they have the highest turnout. That suggests Shapiro’s religion and his position on Israel would be a net plus for a Harris-Shapiro ticket even if it alienated the pro-Palestinian left.

In Pennsylvania, Harris is under pressure on the issue of fracking from those who rely on the industry for their jobs. She is on tape calling for a complete ban and she is trying to walk those comments back, saying she has evolved on the issue. Shapiro has walked a fine but successful line on the issue, supporting local energy production. Picking him would lend credence to her new position that she really is for a more balanced approach to energy that includes fracking.

Is it realistic that the left-wing voters would abandon a Harris-Shapiro ticket in favor of Trump and JD Vance when the Democratic Party has consolidated around Harris? They would have zero power under Trump, so again, Shapiro is likely to help, not hurt, such a ticket regardless of the issues most important to progressives.

Harris has had a great run in the last couple of weeks but she is still one point behind Trump in the RealClearPolitics polling average and three points behind in my last poll. The easy polling lift from energizing women, Black Americans and young voters and consolidating the Democratic constituencies has now been deposited in the political bank. But the next few points, like improving her standing among white men, will be harder to come by.

The best path to overcoming the hurdle that the Harris campaign faces in erasing Trump’s small lead is by picking Shapiro, the only vice-presidential contender I see who can reassure the moderates who are not sold on Harris. And he would do so not with slick or phony messaging, but with what he has always done: embracing his moderate record and his faith, not apologizing for it, and thinking about what’s in the best interest of everyone, not one faction. His pick would be a genuine gesture that Harris is willing to listen to the voters in the vital center.

Nate Silver is also advocating for Shapiro. He asked, “Why Shapiro? What’s the positive case? Well, Shapiro is the extremely popular governor of what is by far the most important swing state. He’s highly charismatic and he’s qualified. He seems to want the job. This is about as obvious as things get in politics.”  Silver is no Mark Penn but… his credibility also cratered when he moved from pure sports statistics to political punditry. His perspective on this— like many people's— is that all that matters is beating Trump, nothing beyond that. Very short-sighted... but, at least at this point, probably the same perspective than 90% of Democrats have. Nothing matters but beating Trump. Kamala could pick anyone— no matter how dubious— and Democrats and the MSNBC crowd will rally round and extol her choice... as we're likely to see tomorrow or Tuesday.