Is Trump's Control Over House Republicans Beginning To Wane As His Economic Policies Keep Failing?

MAGA Mike Finally Gets Trump Economic Plan Over The Line 216-214

Dry Drunk Syndrome

Yesterday, late afternoon, Catie Edmondson reported that MAGA Mike was going ahead with a vote in a few hours “on their party’s budget blueprint, but the fate of the measure to unlock Trump’s spending and tax cuts was in doubt amid a revolt among hard-line conservatives. The resolution scaled a key hurdle Wednesday morning when the powerful House Rules Committee approved a measure that would allow it to go to the floor. GOP leaders argued that time was of the essence to push it through and get started on Trump’s agenda, while Trump stepped up the pressure on Republicans to back it. ‘Close your eyes and get there; it’s a phenomenal bill,’ Trump told lawmakers Tuesday night at a fund-raising dinner in Washington. ‘Stop grandstanding.’ But a number of anti-spending House Republicans said they planned to defy the president and oppose the measure, arguing it would add too much to the nation’s debt.”

MAGA Mike was only able to lose 3 Republican votes. Jake Sherman and crew this morning: “The gaping divide between the House and Senate on spending cuts is a big problem that can’t be papered over. It also starkly demonstrates the limits— once again— of Johnson’s hold on his conference, even with Trump’s backing. The House Freedom Caucus and its allies have little faith in Johnson, and even less in the Senate… [T]here’s an underlying reason for the two spending-cut targets in the budget resolution— $4 billion for the Senate versus $1.5 trillion for the House: Many Senate Republicans simply don’t want to cut as much spending. Conservative House Republicans know it. The bifurcated spending-cut target was a sleight of hand by GOP leaders in the two chambers that conceded the point. The budget resolution, as written, allows the Senate to roll House Republicans. Senators have far different political incentives than their House colleagues. A significant faction of GOP senators aren’t hot on deep cuts to Medicaid or repealing large chunks of the Inflation Reduction Act, for example. But that’s a principal objective for a large number of House Republicans, which puts the two groups in conflict.” A few hours later it passed 216 to 214, Thomas Massie and Victoria Spartz the only GOP no votes in the end, the rest buying into the contradictory bullshit that is either “we will destroy Medicaid” to the far right and "we won't touch a hair on Medicaid's head” to the more mainstream conservatives.

One of the House Republicans who wants to gut Medicaid, Lloyd Smucker (PA): “We just want to ensure that there’s some binding way of ensuring that there will be spending cuts in the final reconciliation. That’s all.”

MAGA Mike and his team couldn't round up enough votes so they called it off at the last minute and then voted this morning. It sure sounded like Chip Roy had made up his mind regardless of Trump’s gaslighting about it being a phenomenal bill. Roy told the media, bluntly, that “You cannot have a one-way ratchet on tax cuts and ignore the spending side of the ledger. And my colleagues in the Senate, for sure, and some in the House on this side of the aisle, want precisely that. The Senate budget is all tax cuts and no spending cuts. Now we’re told, ‘Trust us, there’s a promise.’” In the end he chickened out, of course.

It was not clear whether enough skeptics would relent. House Republicans have time and again caved to Trump on critical issues, especially when he has singled them out, either on social media or with a well-timed phone call made as lawmakers were voting.

But some House conservatives view the issue of reining in the nation’s debt and federal spending as their most important priority, and they have shown less willingness— at least so far— to yield to his demands.

In order to move along the reconciliation process, which Republicans plan to use to push their budget and tax legislation through Congress strictly along party lines, the House and the Senate must adopt the same budget resolution.

The plan the Senate passed over the weekend directed committees in that chamber to find about $4 billion in spending cuts over a decade. That is a fraction of the $2 trillion in spending cuts that the House has approved, and conservatives there fear that if they agree to the Senate’s measure, they will ultimately be forced to accept far smaller spending cuts than they want.

A few hours later, Edmondson wrote that another far right extremist, Eric Burlison (R-MO) would stick with Roy and vote NO and that he was one of a dozen. They all chickened out too. “The unusual burst of resistance that emerged on Capitol Hill came from lawmakers who typically count themselves among Trump’s closest allies. GOP lawmakers have long shown Trump extraordinary deference, and at the outset of his second term have caved to him on critical votes after getting a personal call or finding themselves on the receiving end of a blistering social media post. They still may relent. After Trump met with a group of House Republicans on Tuesday, a handful of holdouts dropped their opposition to the resolution. But their insistence that they would not support a measure without the promise of deeper spending cuts underscored the challenge for GOP leaders toiling to manage a group in their ranks who view reducing the debt as their north star. The problem for Republicans like Burlison is that the level of spending cuts the resolution requires Senate committees to find— about $4 billion over a decade— is a fraction of the $2 trillion in spending cuts that the House has approved. House Republicans fear that if they agree to the Senate’s budget resolution, the Senate will ultimately force them to accept a far lower level of spending cuts than they want.”

Republican leaders have said that number is a minimum and is intended to give them flexibility to comply with strict procedural rules in the Senate.

Hard-line House conservatives are also unimpressed with the Senate’s insistence that extending the tax cuts that Trump signed into law in 2017 would cost nothing because it simply maintains current policy. Senate Republicans have adopted that approach so they could extend the tax cuts indefinitely without appearing to balloon the deficit.

The reviews of the gimmick from spending hawks have been scathing.

“The American people want and expect results, not more fiscal trickery,” Representative Andy Ogles of Tennessee said.

“Unserious and disappointing,” Representative Jodey Arrington of Texas, the chairman of the Budget Committee, declared.

“More business as usual at a time when that’s exactly what we’re trying to avoid,” said Representative David Schweikert of Arizona, who keeps a “debt dashboard” on his official website.

…With a vote looming, House Republicans may yet come around. On several occasions when he has been short of votes— including for his own re-election to the top post in the House— Speaker Mike Johnson has been able to rely on Trump to pressure recalcitrant Republicans to fall in line, by plowing ahead on the House floor and essentially daring holdouts to publicly defy the president.

But some showed a remarkable degree of resistance on Tuesday, citing core principles.

“We just believe that we can move his agenda forward— of maximizing the tax cuts and the spending reductions— by not approving this budget resolution,” said Representative Andy Harris of Maryland, the chairman of the Freedom Caucus.

Harris said he turned down an invitation to meet with Trump on Tuesday at the White House to discuss his concerns.

“There’s nothing that I can hear at the White House that I don’t understand about the situation,” he said. “Let the president spend time with people whose minds he might change. He’s just not going to change my mind.”

Their opposition was reminiscent of scenes that played out in December, when Trump implored Republicans to pass a government funding bill that also raised the debt limit. Dozens refused.

During those negotiations, Trump singled out Representative Chip Roy of Texas, who was forcefully making the case against the legislation both in public and in private, and called for his ouster.

That broadside served as a reminder of the perils of crossing Trump for many Republicans, who privately acknowledge that their nightmare scenario is his endorsing a primary challenger in their district.

Now Roy is again among the ranks of fiscal conservatives who are at odds with Trump. He attended the White House meeting on Tuesday, but left saying he was still opposed to the budget resolution.

“The math still doesn’t math,” Roy said.

Trump has already solicited a primary challenger against Roy. Now he has Musk's money behind him if he decides to do it again.