Is The Democratic Party Cool Enough— And Wise Enough— To Nominate AOC For the Presidency in 2028?

Yale’s spring polling was released today and they found that a plurality of Democrats (and Democratic-leaning independents) would vote for Kamala Harris (27.5%) if the 2028 Democratic primary were held today. AOC (21.3%) came in second, Pete Buttigieg in third (14%), and no other Democrat received more than 5% of votes. The top three candidates were the same among young Democrats only, with even stronger support for Harris (37.4%) and Ocasio-Cortez (28.2%) and weaker support for Buttigieg (9.7%). Harris, Ocasio-Cortez, and Buttigieg also have the highest favorability ratings among Democrats, with Harris and Ocasio-Cortez both at about +60 net favorability. John Fetterman and Stephen A. Smith were the only two figures tested with negative net favorability ratings among Democrats (-17.2 for Fetterman and -16.9 for Smith). Young Democrats match these relative patterns but tend to view all political figures listed less favorably than Democrats overall do.

That must be depressing for some of the politicians who have been working hardest to position themselves at the top of the heap, Chris Murphy, Gavin Newsom, Cory Booker, Tim Walz, Ro Khanna, JB Pritzker, Josh Shapiro, Amy Klobuchar…

It’s early in the game and prognosticators mostly have it all wrong, as usual. Niall Stanage, who admits “there is no obvious front-runner,” ranked the top candidates for The Hill and put AOC first. Nice… but unrealistic. “There are plenty of reasons for some Democrats to balk at the thought of Ocasio-Cortez as the party’s nominee.” The professional parasites who make their huge livings off the party— whether it wins or loses elections— will never accept a reformer and will work hard to kill her chances even if it means that JD Vance would become president. “Her haters,” Stanage wrote, “loath her just as passionately as her fans love her. And, perhaps most importantly of all, would a left-wing Latina from New York City really be the best option for a party that needs to win states like Michigan and Pennsylvania to take back the White House? Still, Ocasio-Cortez’s deftness as a politician is sometimes overlooked. She is the leading Democrat of the social media age and a fundraising powerhouse.”

He placed Pennsylvania Josh Shapiro, not exactly a national figure, in the number 2 slot. He’s known for being a victim of an arson attacks and for his support for Israel’s genocidal agenda in Gaza (and the West Bank), which will eliminate him as a serious contender among millions of Democratic voters. He’s one of the many right-of-center politicians the consulting class is considering putting up against AOC. They’ll test them all til the find someone who can beat her. Shapiro “boosters note his history of high approval ratings in his home state, his tendency to avoid a focus on divisive issues and his abilities as an orator— though his speaking style sometimes elicits wry questions as to whether he is impersonating former President Obama.”

Stanage’s number 3 is another centrist governor, Trump amiga Gretchen Whitmer. Much worse than most of the contenders is numero 4— Gavin Newsom, a corporate whore and centrist who thinks moving right is the key to the nomination. “Still, there are lingering questions around Newsom’s authenticity. And his overall persona— the classic affluent, tanned, liberal Californian— doesn’t exactly recommend him as the best candidate to carry the Rust Belt.” He’s also hated in California now; he isn’t a liberal and no one should be questioning his authenticity; it doesn’t exist.

Number 5 is Wes Moore, primarily because Stanage needed a Black person on the list. Moore has no national profile, although Stanage assured his readers that he’s “a candidate on the rise” and is liked by Oprah Winfrey.

Number 6 is Kamala, although it surprises me she’s ranked so far down the list. Most polls show her at number one among Democrats. Right behind her is JB Pritzker, a 350-400 pound Jewish billionaire. I don’t see it. Then comes the McKinsey-trained Pete Buttigieg, a gay former mayor with an excellent publicist but not much in the accomplishment column. Stanage for some reason included the much-hated Rahm Emanuel on his list, even though Emanuel is actively campaigning for the Illinois Senate seat Durbin is expected to give up. And even less realistic than Emanuel is some TV sports analyst named Stephen Smith, from the land of silly.

Stanage lists Andy Beshear, Cory Booker, John Fetterman, Ro Khanna, Amy Klobuchar, Chris Murphy, Jon Ossoff, and Tim Walz as “in the mix.” I suspect Ossoff is going to have a very hard time winning reelection next year. Fetterman is one of the most intensely disliked elected officials among Democrats and he is not a contender in any way whatsoever. Like I said, these prognosticators don’t know what they’re talking about. If I had to guess right now, I’d be leaning towards Murphy’s chances.

This morning, Alex Thompson noted that AOC “is racing to fill that vacuum” created by the Democrats’ confusion about their own identity. “It feels to many top Democrats like she's grabbing Sanders' torch as a progressive leader— and that he's intentionally passing it to her… Her rise comes as the Democratic Party base is increasingly agitated by the party's inability to push back against the Trump administration's sweeping agenda— and is searching for a champion to fight back. Ocasio-Cortez has been cheered like a political rock star over the past two weeks as she and Sanders barnstorm the country with mega-rallies for a “Fighting Oligarchy” tour. She and Sanders have mobilized large crowds in conservative states, including Utah, Idaho and Montana. Thousands in Salt Lake City chanted ‘AOC! AOC! AOC!’ as she left the stage.”

She already has a national brand separate from the 83-year-old Sanders, thanks in part to a massive social media following. Not including the accounts she has for her office, she has 9.1 million followers on Instagram, 12.7 million on X, and 4 million on TikTok. Sanders has 7.6 million Instagram followers.

A recent YouGov poll found Ocasio-Cortez had a +61 approval rating among Democras— the highest of any Democrat polled who hasn't run for president or vice president.

…Some Democratic strategists worry about Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez becoming the faces of the party.

They believe the party went too far to the left during Trump's first term and is in danger of doing so again.

Ocasio-Cortez may thrill many partisan Democrats— but the party needs to win back people in the middle, they argue.

Between the lines: moderating is what led many working-class voters to flee the party.

Still, both have been trying to frame their worldview as having broad appeal.

In her red-state appearances, Ocasio-Cortez repeated versions of the line: "I don't think this is Trump country, I think this is our country."

Sanders, in an echo of one of former President Obama's famous speeches, told the crowd in Idaho: "We don't accept this blue state–red state nonsense. We are the United States of America— not red states, not blue states."

Sanders spokesperson Anna Bahr told Axios: "The best way to defeat authoritarianism is with a strong, working-class coalition that spans the political spectrum.

Tyson Brody, Sanders' research director on his 2020 presidential campaign, told Axios he thinks Ocasio-Cortez's moves are "about more than becoming a leader of the left, it's about becoming a leader of the party."