Is The Cluelessness Of The Democratic Establishment Turning New Jersey Into A Swing State?

We'll See What Happens In The Gubernatorial Election Next Year

In 2016, Hillary clobbered Trump in New Jersey, though not by as big margins as the state gave Obama in 2008 and 2012. Her totals showed strength in the suburban areas of central and northern New Jersey, while lower middle class voters in southern New Jersey continued trending towards the GOP. Trump flipped 2 Obama counties— tiny Salem in the southwest corner of the state and Gloucester just north of Salem. The 4 “white flight” shore counties— Monmouth, Ocean, Atlantic and Cape May— all voted more Republican than they had in 2012. While Romney had won these four counties collectively by around 6% in 2012, Trump won them by 17% in 2016. The Democrats seemed unconcerned.

Biden improved on Hillary’s performance, winning back Gloucester County, taking Morris, the first Democrat to dose since LBJ. Kamala did worse than either Biden or Hillary.Trump retook Gloucester and Morris counties and also flipped Passaic, Atlantic and Cumberland counties.

2016

• Hillary- 2,148,276 (55.45%)

• Trump- 1,601,933 (41.35%)

2020

• Biden- 2,608,400 (57.34%)

• Trump- 1,883,313 (41.40%)

2024

• Kamala- 2,218,078 (51.97%)

• Trump- 1,966,571 (46.07%)

Republican Jack Ciattarelli’s shockingly strong performance against unpopular Democratic governor Phil Murphy in the 2021 gubernatorial race should have warned Democrats. Ciattarelli flipped Atlantic, Cumberland and Gloucester counties and took 11 counties to Murphy’s 10. He also took the congressional districts represented by Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill, two of the Democrats running for governor next year. In his 2021 concession speech, Ciattarelli announced he would run again in 2025.

Aside from Ciattarelli, a moderate, the Republican primary is will include state Senator Jon Bramnick, a comedian and NeverTrump moderate (endorsed by Chris Christie), Edward Durr, the MAGA truck driver and former state senator who ended Steve Sweeney’s career by winning his seat, and Bill Spadea, a hate-talk show host on New Jersey’s biggest radio station and a complete MAGA/QAnon conspiracy nut.

The Democratic primary race already includes progressives Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City reform Mayor Steven Fulop, New Jersey Education Association president Sean Spiller and conservatives Josh Gottheimer (the corrupt North Jersey machine candidate, although the party bosses are moving towards Sherrill), Mikie Sherrill (the EMILY’s List identity politics candidate) and former state Senator Stephen Sweeney (the candidate of the corrupt South Jersey machine).

My guess is that Gottheimer, understanding that he can’t beat Sherrill in the primary, will drop out quickly and, unfortunately, stay in Congress. Spiller’s union’s PAC is about to spend $40 million supporting him— so that’s a wild card— but, unless they spend a good portion of it tearing down Sherrill— that’s not going to happen— it’s a waste. She’ll win the primary, which is a shame because she’s a pretty weak candidate with limited appeal. She’s going to have a tough time against either Ciattarelli or Bramnick, especially with Murphy’s whole incompetent political operation running her campaign. Although not as bad a member of Congress as Gottheimer— the 5th worst Democrat according to the ProgressivePunch rankings— she has still earned an “F” and has made no worthwhile contributions at all. She should go over about as well as Kamala just did, dangerous territory for a Democrat in a state that has suddenly started trending purple.

On Tuesday, The Hill reported that Republicans are smelling blood in the race. “Harris,” wrote Jared Gans and Yash Roy, “only carried the Garden State by about 6 points over Trump, the closest Republicans have come to winning the state’s electoral votes in three decades. This came after another closer-than-expected result in the gubernatorial race three years ago, during which Gov. Phil Murphy (D) won by just more than 3 points.”

Part of the decline in Democratic votes across the state is turnout in northern counties near New York City. Hudson, Essex and Passaic counties have traditionally been Democratic strongholds where party chairs turn out hundreds of thousands of voters. The power of those county machines has declined over the last two election cycles.

“The reasons for that is that the Democratic leadership in the state party have largely been complacent for a long time and haven’t focused on building any infrastructure and because the state party has viewed New Jersey as reliably blue, they’ve alienated a lot of the activist base throughout New Jersey,” said Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, one of the Democratic candidates for governor.

State Democratic Party Chair Leroy Jones, who also chairs the Essex County Democratic Party, said that the party’s messaging this cycle was not “direct enough” and that it failed to “connect with voters,” but he dismissed concerns that county parties will not rise to the occasion during the 2025 gubernatorial cycle.  

“There needs to be a dialogue and a strategy that will improve and deploy, employ all the counties, getting us all on the same sheet of music and then coming out, and we’ll get there,” Jones said.  

Jones added that he believes Democrats must “recalibrate” messaging to focus on the economy and cost of living during the race, saying voters cared the most about affordability in 2024 and that trend would continue into 2025.

…This is the first gubernatorial election cycle without “the line,” a ballot design unique to New Jersey where county parties place their endorsed candidates in one line on the ballot instead of the office block ballot seen in most other states.

… According to Jeanette Hoffman, a GOP strategist based in Monmouth County, the state party has also been making inroads with voter registration, with more Republicans registering this year than Democrats, a watershed moment in the solidly blue state.

“That trend matters, and Republicans have their best shot after two terms of Gov. Murphy and a Democratic Legislature making everything more expensive,” Hoffman said.

Democrats acknowledged that the recent results are a “wake-up call” for the party, which they said need to take steps to hold off Republican gains. 

[Democratic strategist Henry] de Koninck said he views the 2021 gubernatorial race as a “harbinger,” with softening support for Democrats in traditional strongholds in the state. He said he expects Democratic primary voters will be pragmatic in who they nominate, keeping in mind who is best positioned to prevail in a gubernatorial race in which Republicans are positioned to compete. 

“Democrats are really going to need to make an appeal for hardworking everyday Americans and win back middle-class and working-class voters by speaking to their needs and their concerns,” de Koninck said, pointing to “kitchen-table issues” like the cost of food.

Several of the Democratic candidates have particularly emphasized lowering costs, including for housing and health care, in the early days of the campaign.

Tal Axelrod reminded ABC News readers that “New Jerseyans haven't granted one party more than eight straight years in the governor's mansion in over five decades… Harris' loss to Trump has set off recriminations among Democrats that the party has lost touch with working-class voters and instead reinforced an elitist, out-of-touch brand that was so unpalatable that voters instead opted for a twice-impeached former president who had been convicted of 34 felonies in New York. Warning signs loomed this month specifically in New Jersey and Virginia. Trump stunned when he became the first Republican presidential candidate in over 30 years to win racially diverse Passaic County in New Jersey… Now, candidates are putting the economy first. ‘Let's make life more affordable for hardworking New Jerseyans, from health care to groceries to child care,’ Sherrill said in her announcement video.”

Interesting to see a conservative Democrat like Sherrill adopting progressive positions. That’s happening all over the country now, as corrupt conservatives natives claim progressives are just about social issues and transgender rights while the core of progressivism— economic progress for working families— is their own. John Nichols dealt with this Tuesday by writing about Bernie’s Tough Times letter last weeks: “Sanders speculated about how activists can ‘build a multi-racial, multi-generational working-class movement’ in these times. Among the prospects he put on the table was that of challenging corporate-aligned candidates of both major parties. ‘Should we be supporting Independent candidates who are prepared to take on both parties?… [W]e need strong working-class candidates who are prepared to run on working-class issues… The Democratic Party is, increasingly, a party dominated by billionaires, run by well-paid consultants whose ideology is to tinker around the edges of a grossly unjust and unfair oligarchic system. If we are ever going to bring about real change in this country, we have got to significantly grow class consciousness in America. The questions that have to be asked [by activists who are serious about developing a powerful alternative to  the Republicans] are: “Why in the wealthiest country in the history of the world are 60 percent of our people living paycheck to paycheck? Why do 60,000 people a year die because they don’t get to a doctor on time? Why can’t young people afford higher education?” Those are the issues that have got to be talked about, that have got to be carried into the political sphere. And the Democratic Party— with few exceptions— is by and large not interested in doing that.’”

Last week, Keeanga-Yamahtta Taylor wrote that “Intending to create a contrast to the grim mood of the Republican convention weeks prior, [the Democrats] cast themselves as optimists and patriots with what Harris described as a ‘new path forward.’ But the mood of celebration misunderstood an angry electorate, one struggling to stay ahead and firm in its belief that the country is headed in the wrong direction. So did the overwhelming focus on chastened Republicans, who appeared onstage to denounce Trump and took time away from clarifying how Democrats would attend to voters’ economic troubles. Yes, ordinary Democrats were relieved that a coherent person could take on Trump, but exulting in good vibes mistook a political mood that was turning dark. It is the disconnect that ultimately underwrote Trump’s dramatic victory over Harris and his pending return to the White House… The insistence on Democrats’ poor messaging or on the public just not getting it once again underestimates the financial uncertainty engulfing the lives of ordinary Americans— especially those seen as the base of the Democratic Party— and their anger about it. Post-pandemic inflation has been devastating, reaching a forty-one-year high in 2022, and driving up the costs of food, gas, and housing. Inflation chewed through the significant wage increases among workers due to state-level wage hikes along with a tight pandemic-era labor market. In 2023, the median incomes of Black and Latino households barely rose year-over-year, even as inflation remained high. Democrats have insisted that inflation has dropped to ‘normal’ levels, but this means only that the pace at which prices are rising is slowing. Sticker shock has not abated.”

It is certainly not the case that Trump brims with solutions to the bleak economic horizon. What Trump has offered to do once in office, from tariffs to stripping down public spending and ending certain public services, will make the lives of ordinary people worse. But, when millions of working-class people have endured so much continuity in hardship, have endured rising rents, crushing debt, and jobs they hate, it can feel as if no matter who you vote for, not much will change. The biggest problem the Democrats face is the belief that voting for their Party won’t help solve working Americans’ major problems. It is true that Biden delivered important financial relief in the first year of his Administration. But it is also true that he presided over its disappearance when the emergency measures expired. Democrats have been unable to adequately explain why, allowing Trump and the GOP to provide their own answers.