Supposedly, the frontrunners in Señor T’s running mate gameshow sweepstakes are J.D. Vance (strong loyalty, compelling personal story, appeal to working-class voters, consistent with Trump’s policy positions); Doug Burgum (executive experience as governor, can bring in fresh ideas and a business-oriented approach); Marco Rubio (national experience, strong debater, appeal to Latino voters, significant name recognition); and Tim Scott (strong national profile, appeal to African American voters, positive public persona, solid conservative credentials). All four come along with the significant billionaire-backing Trump craves.
However, Trump's roll the dice decision-making process is— by conscious design— unpredictable... and chaotic. It is also influenced by a range of factors, especially loyalty, personal chemistry, strategic considerations and the all-important “it factor.” A creation of media manipulation himself, Trump is especially on the hunt for someone with charisma and media appeal— “star power,” an ability to captivate an audience, to come across as likable, while conveying confidence and authenticity on screen (without overshadowing you-know-who). Trump also has to keep in mind the likely reaction from MAGA influencers’ if he picks someone who is “too establishment.”
I never thought any of the media front runners would necessarily be who Trump settled on. And then yesterday, a friend-with-good-sources told me he knows who the choice is. Oh? Can you share? I promised to take him to Baroo next time he’s in the U.S. And, without explanation, he asserted that the choice is… Glenn Youngkin, the governor of Virginia.
When Youngkin decided to jump into politics recently, he demonstrated an appeal— for a Republican— to suburban and moderate voters. He would also be a “fresh face” for national politics in the media narrative. And he would probably deliver Virginia with its potentially crucial 13 electoral votes. The last time a Republican presidential candidate won Virginia was in 2004, when incumbent George W. Bush clobbered John Kerry by 8 points. But before that, Virginia had delivered for Nixon (both times), Ford, Reagan (both times), George H.W. Bush (both times) and Dole (as well as for George W. The first time he ran). So… it’s not like Virginians don’t know how to vote for Republicans.
On the other hand, Trump probably views him as disrespectful because of their past conflicts and his desire to keep an arm’s length from MAGA. His more mainstream conservative approach to policies and governance is anathema to Trump and his circle and Youngkin would absolutely cause turmoil with the MAGA base, who will see him as someone without the requisite level of unwavering loyalty to Trump and to MAGA values and their delusional QAnon strategic vision.
I’m guessing that Youngkin is more disciplined than Trump but he is used to being a chief executive officer and the glaring differences in style and approach between the more chaos-driven Trump and the more anal Youngkin could lead to conflicts and a lack of messaging coherence.
So far there haven’t been any trial balloons and another source of mine inside congressional GOP leadership (but not Mar-a-Lago) scoffed and said Youngkin has “no more of a shot than Sarah Huckabee Sanders.”
Was JD Vance, the purported frontrunner, cooperating with Trump to create a smokescreen with the NY Times piece on Wednesday? It would certainly help make Youngkin’s surprise selection look like a bold move on Trump's part, especially if Trump needs to get the media’s attention off some disaster, whether a bad debate performance or just some inevitable verbal gaff he's bound to make over and over.
Michael Bender, no one’s fool, wrote that Vance has long been considered one of Señor T’s “top running mate choices and worked as hard as anyone to win the job— raising money for the campaign, speaking with a seemingly endless stream of cable news reporters and even sitting in the Manhattan courtroom with the former president to demonstrate his support. Now, as Trump’s increasingly theatrical selection process enters its final phase, Vance acknowledged Wednesday that he would feel a tinge of dejection if he were not the pick. ‘I’m human, right?’ Vance said when asked about that scenario in an interview on Fox News. ‘So when you know this thing is a possibility, if it doesn’t happen, there is certainly going to be a little bit of disappointment.’ Asked earlier in the interview if he was on a short-list of candidates, Vance said he was probably one of several contenders and conveyed nonchalance at the ultimate outcome. ‘They’ll ask me if they ask me, and if they don’t that’s fine,’ he said.”
Bender reported that Trump’s campaign “has fed speculation that an announcement could happen as soon as this week.” Trump invited Vance, Burgum and Rubio to attend the debate in person. “Vance’s interview,” he wrote, “is the first of a series announced by Fox News on Tuesday that will feature a handful of the leading prospects. Burgum and Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina will also appear in the coming days to essentially pitch themselves to viewers on their qualifications to be vice president, alongside their significant others.” That will remind many people that Scott is a closer case who has a beard for this process.
Vance’s stance on manufacturing jobs, school choice, Ukraine/Putin and strict immigration policies aligns closely with Trump’s platform, ensuring a unified message on key issues. But, like Youngkin, his political experience is relatively limited, having been a senator for less than two years. So there’ll be questions about his readiness for the national stage Ilet alone for the White House when the sickly Trump keels over a dies after one too many hamburgers— or gets committed to a mental institution). Trump doesn’t need Vance to win Ohio and if Trump is looking for more moderate suburban voters, nationally, Vance isn’t eaxctly the best choice. On paper, Youngkin would seem to be more helpful to Trump in swing states and among suburban voters, whereas Vance reinforces Trump's existing support in white working-class communities. And while both are relatively new to national politics, Youngkin’s gubernatorial experience might be seen as more substantial than Vance’s accomplishment-free senatorial tenure.
Choosing Vance would emphasize loyalty and a continuation of Trump’s core messages, while Youngkin might signal an attempt to broaden the appeal, something Trump isles interested in than a normal candidate would be. My gut tells me Trump is more likely to want to go with Vance because of the loyalty factor; Vance is one step away from being buried neck-deep— Marjorie Traitor Greene style— up Trump’s ass. Also Trump is fascinated by poor people who jump into wealth and fame the way Vance did. Vance has also shown he can handle media scrutiny; he’s actively campaigned for Trump, indicating he can be an effective surrogate. None of that means Trump won’t chose Youngkin… or Huckabee Sanders.
