In The Political Realignment, Greedy Democratic Consultants Chose The Shitty End Of The Stick

The South Texas Democratic Party Is Close To A Complete Collapse

We’re still just crawling through the wreckage, waiting for the final numbers to come in but some patterns are beginning to come clear. For example, yesterday ABC News reported that first-time voters “flocked to Trump 54-45%— a reversal from 2020 when the group overwhelmingly went for Biden.” Also, among voters who cited leadership ability as the top candidate attribute, “Trump beat Harris by a whopping 33 points. On bringing about change, the gap widened to 50 points. And even though democracy ranked high as an issue of importance to voters, with a vast majority (73%) viewing democracy as threatened, it didn't automatically translate into success for Harris as some thought it would. ‘Democracy polls well, but the threat to democracy is in the eye of the beholder,’ said [Republican strategist Mark] Weaver, who asserted Trump's projection that Democrats were the actual danger (accusing them of weaponizing the government and censorship) must have resonated.”

And look at this— it appears that Kamala did worse than Biden in just about every congressional district— blue, red, purple. In AOC’s Bronx/Queens district Biden got 77.2% in 2020 and last week, Kamala won just 64.8%. In Adrian Smith’s deep red rural Nebraska district, Biden was crushed with 23.1%. Kamala did even worse— 22.5%. And in Maria Salazar’s Miami swing district where Biden scored 49.6% in 2020, Kamala only managed 42.1%.

The centrist Democrats’ decision— Bill Clinton’s and Rahm Emanuel’s— to ease away from support for the working class and embrace the donor class instead has come home to roost. As Bernie said in his wrap-up statement on Wednesday, “It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them… Will the big money interests and well-paid consultants who control the Democratic Party learn any real lessons from this disastrous campaign? Will the understand the pain and political alienation that tens of millions of Americans are experiencing? Do they have any ideas as to how we can take on the increasingly powerful Oligarchy which has so much economic and political power? Probably not.”

Joey Garrison reported early yesterday that Democrats— who have long prided themselves as the party for the little guy— instead strengthened their emerging base of financially secure college graduates this election while a growing number of blue collar voters embraced Trump and Republicans. Especially alarming for Democrats this election: The exodus of working-class voters from the Democratic Party included not just white voters, but helped Trump make gains with Latino and Black men. Reflecting a widening educational divide, voters with college degrees backed Democratic nominee Kamala Harris 55%-42% in this week's election while Trump won non-college-educated voters— who made up more than half the electorate— 56-42%. Four years ago, Trump won 50% of voters without college degrees to President Joe Biden's 48%. What's more, Trump won 50-46% among voters whose income is less than $100,000, a staggering turnaround from Biden's 56%-43% advantage with this group in 2020. Meanwhile, Harris won voters who earn $100,000 or more 51%-46% over Trump, who in 2020 topped this more affluent group of voters 54%-42% over Biden.”

The realignment crystalized a political reality that's tough for Democrats to swallow: With blue-collar voters flocking away from their party over multiple election cycles, Democrats' refashioned base is becoming more upper-class, urban/suburban and coastal. It's a narrowed coalition that does not bode well for future elections.

“It should be the top and only concern of every Democrat in Congress and around the country for the next two years and beyond,” U.S. Rep Ro Khanna (D-CA), told USA Today. “(The election) showed that the campaign was a failure. We have to prioritize the economic needs and hardships of most working-class families. We failed to make them seem heard and seen in their frustrations with the economic and political system.”

…Rather than regularly railing on the billionaire class, Harris campaigned on a “pragmatic” approach to the economy. “I’m a capitalist,” she told Americans in an appeal to independent and moderate Republicans.”

The Atlantic, citing an unnamed Biden aide, said Harris backed away from a more aggressive economic populist message at the urging of her brother-in-law Tony West, chief legal officer of Uber, who held an influential role in Harris' inner circle. West pushed the shift as a way for Harris to win support within the business community, The Atlantic reported. By the end of the campaign, one of Harris' top surrogates was billionaire businessman Mark Cuban.

One place to look for this political realignment and how it’s playing out is in once deep, deep blue South Texas. Since I was a kid, the Rio Grande Valley was one of the most dependable Democratic bases in the country. Kiss that goodbye. It's not just Cubans any more. Arelis Hernández reported yesterday that this wasn’t neither sudden nor surprising. “Local Republican offices were emerging in places like Starr County that had not voted for a Republican for president in a century. Party workers were actively reaching out to residents who felt forgotten as illegal border crossings rose and their communities struggled to handle the influx. And Donald Trump’s message was clear: He’d bring order and prosperity back into their lives.”

Starr County’s presidential votes this century— notice the rather loud warning in 2020:

• 2000- 77-23% Gore

• 2004- 74-26%- Kerry

• 2008- 84-15% Obama

• 2012- 86-13% Obama

• 1016- 79-19% Hillary

• 2020- 52-47% Biden

• 2024- 58-41% Trump

On Tuesday, Starr County flipped to Trump. So did Cameron, Hidalgo, Willacy, Webb, Maverick, Dimmit and Duval counties. Not a single Texas county flipped red to blue. LBJ must be rolling over in his grave. The Democratic Machines in these counties delivered the presidency to JFK in 1960. “The result on Tuesday,” wrote Hernández, “was a resounding red wave in a part of the country that has come to symbolize the nation’s division on immigration. Yet Democratic and Republican party leaders said the Biden administration’s border failings are only part of what explains it. ‘You can tell me things are better, but if my food stamps don’t last the month, I’m not going to believe you,’ said Toni Treviño, the chair of the Republican Party in Starr County, where nearly 58 percent of voters supported Trump. Trump soundly defeated Harris in 12 of 14 Texas counties touching the border— from the sparsely populated ranchlands in the west to more urban communities in the east where most residents identify as Hispanic, Tejano or Latino. The margins were tighter in the three most populated counties, but everywhere else on the Texas border saw double-digit margins in favor of the Republican candidate.”

Those wins were particularly striking in the Rio Grande Valley, where majority-Hispanic counties have been shifting starkly rightward. In Starr County— where 97 percent of people identify as Latino— just 19 percent of voters cast ballots for Trump in 2016.

Political scientist Alvaro Corral of the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley said Trump’s stunning victory points at something deeper than just the allure of one candidate to a large group of people.

“Latino voters are showing their complexity,” he said. “I expected a swing but not at this magnitude.”

There is no one reason so many Texas borderland fronterizos chose Trump. Each community faced a nuanced set of concerns about tighter wallets, experiences with migration, political messaging and local campaign dynamics that shaped their choices. But the emerging picture is a patchwork of broad discontent and continuing defection from the Democratic Party.

Many Latinos living on the border have resided there for generations, and the Republican Party’s message is increasingly resonating with them, said Democratic political strategist Abel Prado. Some have had very different experiences in America than their immigrant parents or ancestors and are drawn to the narrative Texas conservatives have crafted about belonging and prosperity.

“The Republican Party makes Hispanics feel they are the party of the American Dream,” Prado said. “People equate a good economy with Republicans, regardless of the truth.”

Nationally, he added, Democrats continue to play defense on cultural issues like rights for transgender people that simply do not speak to border voters, who are generally more religious, less educated and socially conservative, and who often take cues from their spiritual leaders inside the voting booth.

Republican congressional candidate Mayra Flores’s campaign plastered the region with advertisements serving a simple message. On one side was a picture of Trump and a paper bag of groceries that came out to $97. On the other was an image of Kamala Harris and the same bag of groceries— but with a $297 price tag. (Flores lost her bid to unseat Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, though the region she was vying to represent went for Trump.)

“Keep the same, or make a change!” the sign read.

…Many people in urban areas along the border don’t necessarily see migrants on a daily basis or have a front seat to border crossings. Migration is masked by a federal system that quickly moves people into processing centers, then deports, detains or releases them into the interior of the country.

But Republican Gov. Greg Abbott’s border crackdown, known as Operation Lone Star, has made it impossible to look away, several residents said. The billion-dollar initiative has poured millions into border law enforcement agencies, deployed thousands of state troopers and National Guard soldiers, and bused thousands of migrants to Northern cities.

The state response has been welcome in Maverick County, said Freddy Arellano, the area’s Republican Party chair.

“What we’ve read from all of this is that the Democratic Party has abandoned the community,” he said. “For example, the Eagle Pass mayor, a Democrat, was asking for assistance from the federal government, and they gave us bubkes. Voters proceeded then to defect.”

Social media has helped amplify concerns over immigration. Local law enforcement agencies regularly post dash-cam videos of high-speed chases and mug shots of alleged smugglers on Facebook. Neighborhood pages are filled with reports of alleged terrorists being arrested at the border and sensational videos in English and Spanish showing crossings and handcuffed migrants.

Claudia Alcazar lives near the border and said she and her neighbors have had to clean up after migrants who left behind clothes and dirty diapers and destroyed fences and other property. It has built resentment among some border families, especially those who have migrated legally or are trying to migrate legally to the country.

Like many border residents, she draws a distinction between her family, which has been in Texas for generations, and those who have been crossing in recent years without permission.

“We are too nice under the Democrats. People, whether it’s true or not, have this perception that migrants get free stuff,” said Alcazar, who ran as a Republican for a local office but lost. “People want the toughness of Trump, whether its real or not.”

Texas is home to one of the largest undocumented populations in the country, but both Democrats and Republicans said many families along the border do not believe Trump is likely to make good on his threat to carry out a mass deportation.

“Do I want people ripped from their homes? Of course not,” Cancino said. “We’ll just have to wait and see what his process will be.”

The red wave, however, did not extend down the ballot. Along the border, Democrats continued to dominate many races for local offices, and some Republicans who did win had narrower victories than in years before. Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, for example, did not win the same majorities that Trump enjoyed.

In some places, on-the-ground canvassing paid off. The Hidalgo County Democrats recruited 1,500 volunteers to knock on 100,000 doors. They also sent more than a million text messages. The party focused on the top issues on voters’ minds: affordable health care and the economy, said Richard Gonzales, who heads the local Democratic Party.

Several Democratic candidate won local offices, but 51 percent of voters still cast their ballots for Trump, election results show.

… Morales Gonzalez, a real estate agent, was leasing a property to an import-export business that suffered so much that they asked her to reduce the rent by half to be able to stay in the space. She saw home sales dry up when interest rates swelled. Home builders couldn’t turn the same profits and weren’t willing to invest their money, so they stopped building, she said.

She said her husband retired from the Border Patrol six years early in 2022 because he was so frustrated with how the job had changed. At the time, his sector of the border was leading the country in migrant encounters— largely asylum-seeking families from around the world.

Trump is “the choice for me and 90 percent of the Border Patrol families and Realtor community I know,” said Morales Gonzalez.

Her brother, state Rep. Eddie Morales, a Democrat, was reelected to office but by 10 fewer points than he had won in the last election. He is hopeful there is a way for his party to win the presidency again by fashioning a platform that reflects the values and concerns of constituents.

Morales is a moderate who considers himself pro-oil and gas, and also pro-renewable energy. He tries to take nuanced positions, such as voting for two $5 billion appropriation bills for the governor’s border operation. He did that while also denouncing the political theater around the border.

“We cannot maintain the status quo,” he said. “Texans and Americans are telling us that they want us to focus on them first.”

Over the weekend, the NY Times reported that migrants are rethinking their plans about coming to the U.S., exactly what Trump wants.

And while we’re talking about South Texas, it’s worth mentioning that Cameron, Willacy, Hidalgo, Duval, Webb and Dimmit counties, even as they were going for Trump, also voted for Democratic Senate candidate Colin Allred, if not in the same numbers they had given Beto O’Rouke against Cruz in 2018.

• Cameron- Beto- 63%; Allred- 52%

• Willacy- Beto- 64%; Allred- 53%

• Hidalgo- Beto- 69%; Allred- 52%

• Duval- Beto- 67%; Allred- 52%

• Webb- Beto- 71%; Allred- 53%

• Dimmit- Beto- 71; Allred- 57%

The 4 South Texas incumbents— 2 Republicans and 2 Democrats were all reelected, although the two very conservative Blue Dogs, Vicente González and Henry Cuellar, the last anti-Choice Democrat in Congress, had close calls, 51% for González and 52% for Cuellar. Trump won both districts. Cuellar, whose family runs the Webb County Democratic Party has been indicted on bribery charges by the Justice Department and will almost certainly be in prison before his term is complete— unless Trump pardons him (likely). After 10 terms, many observers thought Republican Jay Furman would beat him this year, even though he was abandoned by the NRCC. Furman ended up with 47.6% of the vote to Cuellar’s 52.4%.

Cuellar & Sinema... The Dems also don't fear Blue Dogs-- they fear AIAPC and the crypto-criminals