In The Past, What Did Societies Do When They Realized They Were Ruled By A Destructive Mad King?

"Trump Pisses On The World" by Nancy Ohanian

Maybe it was petty of me but as Biden rolled out the enormous IRA investments in the infrastructure projects the Republicans tried to block and voted against, I grumbled as I watched most of them going into red districts that voted against Biden in 2020. Of the 20 biggest job-creating sites, 14 were in red districts. In fact, all but one of the 14 were won by Trump by double digits. Only one was even somewhat close— MI-04, where Trump’s margin of victory was 3.9%.

Yesterday, CNN reported how the Republicans whose districts these projects are in, want them all stopped— except, of course, the one in their own district!

Extreme right Republican Joe Wilson for example, supports stopping all support for the projects even though he released a statement saying  “Scout Motors is here to stay. With that said, the tax incentives that help companies who choose to manufacture great products here in the United States are important for our business. Repealing these tax incentives could have a significantly negative impact on American innovation, American job creation, and the growth of Scout Motors.”

Wilson’s confused position “reflects the battle brewing between congressional Republicans: Some vocally defend Biden’s tax credits because they’re bringing billions of dollars of investment and thousands of jobs to their districts; others want fulfill Trump’s promise to terminate the law. Nearly 80% of the investments sparked by the climate law has been in Republican congressional districts, according to data from the nonpartisan think tank Rhodium Group and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Republicans represent 14 of the top 20 congressional districts that are set to gain the most jobs. Tennessee, Georgia and the Carolinas have gained most of the new jobs in electric vehicle and battery manufacturing… Unlike Wilson, experts and business leaders aren’t bullish the clean-energy ventures can stand on their own.”

If the GOP plan to cancel the tax credits passes many of the projects will disappear. Annie Grayer reported that “Republican infighting is on the verge of spilling into public view as Congress inches closer to its massive budget proposal, after House Republicans cleared a key procedural hurdle on Thursday. Now the hard work of filling in the budget blueprint while simultaneously making significant spending cuts begins, which is where the fate of the energy tax credits will be determined. Trump has vowed to ‘terminate’ Biden’s clean energy law, dubbing it the ‘Green New Scam,’ and his administration has attempted to halt several federal grant programs created by the law with varying amounts of success. But it will take an act of Congress to reverse the tax credits that have spurred the investment and jobs in mostly Republican districts.”

Not a single Republican voted for the bill but now many of them “acknowledge the vital economic role clean-energy tax credits are playing in their districts. Rep. Mark Amodei, whose Nevada district is poised to gain more than 20,000 jobs in mining, refining and processing lithium for EVs and batteries, told CNN that continuing to fund these facilities in his district is ‘fundamental.’ A bill that doesn’t include these tax credits would be a red line for him, he said. ‘This makes good economic development sense, tariff policy sense and trade sense,’ said Amodei, who recently met with lithium business leaders in his district… Buddy Carter’s district in Georgia is home to a Hyundai electric-vehicle factory that could add more than 8,000 jobs, depending on outstanding funding from IRA tax credits. Carter thinks Republicans ‘should take a scalpel to (the clean energy law), and not a sledgehammer.’ It’s unclear which tax credits he would propose cutting and which he would keep.”

House GOP lawmakers who want to keep the tax credits told CNN they have been doing outreach on the issue for months, which has included letters to House GOP leadership, educating members with specific examples of how their districts have benefited and conversations with the Trump administration.

“This is something that I’ve been talking about for well over a year,” said Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa, who chairs the Conservative Climate Caucus.

The Trump administration’s aggressive tariff push has shined a brighter spotlight on the case for the continuation of IRA tax credits.

“Especially now with all the tariffs and the interest in trying to bring manufacturing back to the US, you can’t have that manufacturing if you don’t have energy and you can’t run the plant,” said New York Rep. Andrew Garbarino, who led 21 Republicans in a letter to the House Ways and Means Committee last month calling for the tax credits to be preserved.

Garbarino said there is a “need” for energy from renewables like wind and solar to keep projects powered. “It takes 10 years to build a natural gas plant,” he added.

Rep. Darin LaHood of Illinois, whose district stands to gain nearly 13,000 jobs from projects including a re-opened Stellantis EV assembly plant as a result of IRA tax credits, acknowledged to CNN that there was a “bullseye” on the legislation since it was not initially passed with bipartisan support.

LaHood, who sits on the Ways and Means panel, told CNN the task for Republicans will be figuring out how to not pull the rug out from under businesses that have been counting on and planning around these federal dollars.

“These tax credits are not going to last in perpetuity or until the end of their life currently in the bill. But let’s figure out what’s the appropriate sweet spot for a reasonable ramp down” LaHood said, emphasizing that approach will vary by sector.

Meanwhile, Rep. Randy Weber, who represents a swath of coastal Texas southeast of Houston, is not worried if his district loses over 10,000 jobs related to offshore wind manufacturing and carbon capture that IRA tax credits would bring.

“If we have to give a little, we’ll give a little,” Weber told CNN. “You’re talking about jobs, but you’re also talking about things that people have disagreement on. Not everybody is for offshore wind. I wish I could tell you they are.”

In Tennessee, Ford is building a massive EV and battery factory in Rep. David Kustoff’s district, which is part of the reason it stands to gain as many as 18,000 jobs— the most in the nation— from Biden’s tax credits.

Kustoff says the businesses he represents “have made investments where they’ve relied on what was passed in the Inflation Reduction Act.”

But, deep in conversations with his fellow Ways and Means Committee members, Kustoff has a less-than-reassuring message to send back home.

“Stay tuned.”

These are the 14 districts were the jobs are at stake— and what percent of the voters backed Trump against Biden in 2020.

• TN-08- 67.9%

• NC-09- 56.3%

• KY-02- 67.5%

• NV-02- 54.1%

• IL-16- 59.6%

• TX-14- 63.6%

• SC-02- 54.5%

• AZ-05- 57.4%

• IN-05- 57.0%

• GA-01-56.0%

• GA-11-60.0%

• SC-07- 58.8%

• MI-04- 51.1% 

• MI-02- 63.2%

This mess is part of what Paul Krugman dubbed the third worlding of America yesterday. He wrote that “It’s hard to overstate the craziness of announcing a radical tariff plan, then announcing a quite different but equally radical plan just a week later. Furthermore, the claim that the wild zigzags in policy were always part of Trump’s plan just adds to the destruction of the administration’s credibility... However, Trump is now clearly high on his own supply. Even with the April 9 tariff regime, Trump is imposing high tariff rates on our three largest trading partners. Currency and bond market traders— no fools they— are certainly not acting as if we’re on a path to successful deals. [C]razy policies have shaken investors’ faith in America, which has traditionally been viewed as a safe haven... [M]assive tariffs have disrupted the plumbing of the financial system, leading to soaring interest rates on U.S. government debt.”

Bad news for everyone, whether they live in a red district of a blue district: “The common thread in currency and bond markets is that, thanks to Trump, dollar assets— traditionally the foundation of the global financial system— are no longer perceived as safe. The combination of interest rates soaring amid a slump and the currency plunging despite rising interest rates isn’t what we normally expect for advanced countries, let alone the owner of the world’s leading reserve currency. It is, however, what we often see in emerging-market economies. That is, investors have started treating the United States like a third-world economy.

Did I see this coming? No, not really. Unlike the sanewashers, I knew that Trump’s policies would be irresponsible and destructive. However, even I didn’t expect him to destroy credibility accumulated over 80 years in less than three months. But he has. And even if Trump were to backtrack on everything he’s done, we wouldn’t get the lost credibility back. The whole world, sanewashers aside, now knows that America is run by a mad king, surrounded by enablers, who can’t be trusted to behave rationally.”

And did anyone mention that mortgage rates surged over 7% because of the mad king’s scattershot policies? Yesterday the average 30-year fixed went to 7.1% “‘Forget about housing in this environment, with mortgage rates back up, consumers certainly concerned about the job market, housing will also be on the weak side,’ said Nancy Lazar, chief global economist at Piper Sandler, on CNBC’s The Exchange.”

So back to the question posed in the title— In the year 41, Caligula, famously erratic and cruel, was assassinated by members of the Praetorian Guard, his own bodyguards, who were backed by Rome’s senators tired of his tyranny. In 1648 Sultan Ibrahim I, nicknamed “Ibrahim the Mad,” was deposed and later executed by palace elites after erratic behavior and incompetent governance. A year later, in England, amid a civil war brought on by his tyranny, Charles I was tried and executed by Parliamentarians, unprecedented in England. But then in 1793 Louis XVI caused the collapse of monarchical legitimacy and inspired a revolution. He was imprison, tried for treason and executed. The French people, spurred by Enlightenment ideas and a collapsing economy, overthrew centuries of monarchy. Just over a century later, Tsar Nicholas II of Russia and his family were executed as part of a popular revolution.