Kentucky is one of the reddest states. In 2016, Trump beat Hillary 62.52% to 32.68%— Hillary’s 8th worst performance among the states. After 4 years of Trump in the White House, Kentucky voters were still excited and Trump beat Biden 62.09% to 36.15%— Biden’s 7th worst performance. The state’s General Assembly has gotten redder and redder. Today the Senate has 30 Republicans and just 6 Democrats (with 2 vacant seats) and the House has 80 Republicans and just 20 Democrats. Both U.S. senators are Republicans, as are all the congressmen other than one progressive Democrat, Morgan McGarvey, who represents Louisville. So surprisingly, Kentuckians have elected a Democrat, former state Attorney General Andy Beshear, who ousted, narrowly, extreme right lunatic Matt Bevin in 2019.
A week from Tuesday, Kentuckians will be voting in primary elections. Beshear doesn’t have a challenger. But Republicans are going wild in their contest. There are 12 candidates competing, although only 3— all far right nuts— are in real contention, Attorney General Daniel Cameron, Kelly Craft, a MAGA ambassador to the UN under Trump and Ryan Quarles, the state’s Agricultural Commissioner. Cameron has been endorsed by Trump and by the Susan B. Anthony anti-Choice organization. Craft has been endorsed by Rep. James Comer.
The most recent public polling shows Cameron leading with 30%, a lot less than he was previously. Craft, who has been blanketing the airwaves with ads, has significant momentum and is at 30%. Quarles is at 15% and is also showing notable momentum. No one else has above 6%. And 21% say they are undecided.
Polling also shows Beshear beating all the potential Republican candidates decisively. I guess the bitter primary isn’t doing the Republicans any good, as they savage each other. Yesterday, Amee Latour reported that “Craft and a super PAC supporting her have spent millions to raise her profile and negatively frame Cameron,” who has the most name recognition and has Ione foot in the McConnell camp and one foot in the Trumpanzee camp.
All 3 of the top contenders are MAGA culture war fanatics— anti-Choice, anti-LGBTQ, anti-Science, anti-immigrant, pro-assault weapons. That stuff may help in a GOP primary, but it will kill them among swing voters and mainstream conservatives in the general election.
Craft and her superPAC have already spent over $5 million on ads and are going to continue at that pace for the next month. Cameron isn’t hurting for funds either. “[Professor Stehpen] Voss said Craft is trying to ‘capture the right-wing voters in the Republican primary, while at the same time talking about issues from a perspective of family and … as a wife, a woman, to have some of that crossover appeal to more moderate voters.’ Craft’s running mate is state Sen. Max Wise (R), who sponsored SB 150, the provisions of which include banning gender-affirming health care for trans youth and prohibiting classroom teaching about gender identity and sexual orientation. The legislature overrode Beshear’s veto of the bill last month.”
All three top candidates criticized Beshear’s veto.
Quarles is the “odd duck” of the trio, according to Watson, who referred to Quarles as one of his best friends, in that he’s running a “hyperlocal” campaign.
He has endorsements from more than 200 local officials and “has worked rural Kentucky particularly hard,” [political strategist T.J.] Litafik said.
Quarles is campaigning as the “ideas candidate.” Along with typical GOP primary issues of crime and increasing parents’ involvement in education decisions, Quarles has been emphasizing broadband access, reforming the state’s tax code and legalizing medical marijuana— the last of which the state legislature did in March.
Voss said Quarles’s strategy of campaigning as “the adult in the room” hasn’t garnered him much media attention, adding that an endorsement from one of the big local papers— the Louisville Courier-Journal or the Lexington Herald-Leader— could help his campaign, should they weigh in on the primary and back him.
Through the beginning of January, Craft had raised $1.3 million and spent more than $1 million. Cameron and Quarles had each raised more than $900,000, and each had spent far less than Craft.
The Cook Political Report rates the governor’s race lean Democratic.
"That stuff may help in a GOP primary, but it will kill them among swing voters and mainstream conservatives in the general election."
If you've been to KY, you wouldn't dare make that claim. second dumbest state as far as I can tell.
Your guy will win only if those in KY like him. They don't like democrats nor anyone who does not hate (the usual list) as a rule.